Boston River 61%Draw 22%Progreso 17%Expected goals 1.59 – 0.68
83%
Betarazi pick
Boston River or draw
Very strong pick · fair odds 1.21 · bookmaker 1.25 · Lost ✗
10/10Rating
1.25Odds
1
Value bet: Boston River to win @ 1.91 – our chance 61% vs 52% implied by the price (edge +17%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Picks by market
ResultBoston River to win ✗61% · @1.91
Double chanceBoston River or draw ✗83% · @1.25
Both teams scoreNot both teams to score ✗53% · @1.85
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✓81% · fair 1.24
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–0 ✗16% · fair 6.08
Boston River vs Progreso: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
16:00 WAT, Saturday 19 September: Boston River v Progreso in the Primera División Apertura, played at Estadio Campeones Olimpicos. In the table, Boston River are 11th, lower half, on 15 points after 13 matches; Progreso are 7th (upper half) with 19.
Current form
Boston River, last 5: LWLWD Their latest outing: 2–3 defeat to Racing Montevideo, away. Goals for and against: 1.5 scored, 1.2 conceded per game.
Progreso, last 5: LLWLW Their latest outing: 0–1 defeat to Club Nacional, at home. Scoring is the worry: just 0.7 goals a game.
Momentum favours Boston River, collecting 1.7 points per game to 1.0 for Progreso.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give Boston River 1.6 xG, Progreso 0.7 xG – a total near 2.3. Neither a goal-fest nor a stalemate: over 2.5 is 40%, GG 47%.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – Boston River 61%, draw 22%, Progreso 17%.
Lower-risk option: Boston River or draw (83%) at 1.25.
GG/NG: NG (53%) at 1.85.
Price worth noting: Boston River to win @1.91 – the bookmaker implies 52%, our ratings say 61%.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was Boston River or draw (83%, odds 1.25 – longer than our fair 1.21, so there is value too). Most likely score in line with that pick: Boston River 1–0 Progreso. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
Boston River61%fair 1.64 · @1.91
Draw22%fair 4.63 · @3.20
Progreso17%fair 5.76 · @3.80
2.27Expected goals
1.59Boston River xG
0.68Progreso xG
47%Both score
40%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
1–016%
2–013%
1–111%
0–010%
2–19%
0–17%
From our goals model: Boston River 1.6 – 0.7 Progreso expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
All markets: our price vs the bookmaker
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Boston River to win✗
61%
1.64
1.91 ▲
Double chance
Boston River or draw✗
83%
1.21
1.25
Both teams to score
Not both teams to score✗
53%
1.88
1.85
Draw no bet
Boston River (draw no bet)✗
78%
1.28
–
Asian handicap
Progreso +1.5 (Asian handicap)✓
68%
1.48
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
66%
1.51
–
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✗
60%
1.66
–
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
81%
1.24
–
Over/under 4.5 goals
Under 4.5 goals✓
92%
1.09
–
First team to score
Boston River to score first✗
63%
1.59
–
Half-time result
Level at half-time✗
45%
2.22
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Boston River / FT Boston River✗
36%
2.75
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–0✗
16%
6.08
–
Recent results
Boston River – last 6
LWLWDW
12 Sep
@ Racing Montevideo
2–3
L
9 Sep
vs Colón
2–0
W
6 Sep
@ Liverpool Montevideo
0–1
L
2 Sep
@ Liverpool Montevideo
1–0
W
29 Aug
vs Cerro
1–1
D
21 Aug
@ Albion FC
3–2
W
1.5Scored / game
1.2Conceded / game
50%Both scored
33%Over 2.5
Progreso – last 6
LLWLWL
16 Sep
vs Club Nacional
0–1
L
13 Sep
vs Cerro
1–3
L
7 Sep
@ Albion FC
1–0
W
3 Sep
@ Albion FC
1–2
L
29 Aug
vs Danubio
1–0
W
26 Aug
vs CA River Plate
0–2
L
0.7Scored / game
1.3Conceded / game
33%Both scored
33%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Boston River and Progreso.
What is the prediction for Boston River vs Progreso?
Our pick is Boston River or draw with a 83% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.25.
Who will win Boston River vs Progreso?
On our numbers Boston River have a 61% chance of winning, the draw 22% and Progreso 17%.
How many goals will there be in Boston River vs Progreso?
We expect about 2.3 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 40% likely and both teams score 47% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Boston River vs Progreso?
Our predicted score is Boston River 1–0 Progreso, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.3 goals in total.
When is Boston River vs Progreso?
Boston River vs Progreso (Primera División Apertura) kicks off on Saturday 19 September 2026 at 16:00 (West Africa Time) at Estadio Campeones Olimpicos.
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
