Good pick · fair odds 1.53 · bookmaker 1.50 · Won ✓
6/10Rating
1.50Odds
GG
Value bet: Both teams to score @ 2.15 – our chance 51% vs 47% implied by the price (edge +9%). Bigger price, more risk. Won ✓
Picks by market
ResultPenarol to win ✓65% · @1.50
Double chancePenarol or draw ✓90% · @1.10
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✓51% · @2.15
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✓78% · fair 1.29
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–2 ✓9% · fair 11.40
Cerro vs Penarol: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
On Saturday 19 September the Primera División Apertura brings Cerro against Penarol. Kick-off: 19:30 WAT. In the table, Cerro are 9th, lower half, on 18 points after 13 matches; Penarol are 5th (upper half) with 22.
Current form
Cerro, last 5: WLWDD Their latest outing: 3–1 win over Progreso, away. Goals for and against: 1.0 scored, 1.5 conceded per game.
Penarol, last 5: WWDLW Their latest outing: 3–1 win over Albion FC, at home. Away from home the record reads 1 won, 0 lost from 3. Goals for and against: 1.7 scored, 0.7 conceded per game. Defensively they have kept 3 clean sheets in that run.
Momentum favours Penarol, collecting 1.8 points per game to 1.3 for Cerro.
Head to head
When they last met (7 Jun 2026) it ended Cerro 0–1 Penarol. The last 2 head-to-heads: Cerro 0 wins, Penarol 2, draws 0. Those games averaged 2.5 goals and saw GG land 1 time.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give Cerro 0.6 xG, Penarol 1.8 xG – a total near 2.4. Neither a goal-fest nor a stalemate: over 2.5 is 43%, GG 51%.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – Cerro 10%, draw 25%, Penarol 65%.
GG/NG: GG (51%) at 2.15.
Price worth noting: Both teams to score @2.15 – the bookmaker implies 47%, our ratings say 51%.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was Penarol to win (65%, odds 1.50). Most likely score in line with that pick: Cerro 0–1 Penarol. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
Cerro10%fair 10.37 · @6.50
Draw25%fair 4.02 · @3.70
Penarol65%fair 1.53 · @1.50
2.41Expected goals
0.59Cerro xG
1.82Penarol xG
51%Both score
43%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
0–116%
0–215%
1–110%
0–39%
0–09%
1–29%
From our goals model: Cerro 0.6 – 1.8 Penarol expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Our pick is Penarol to win with a 65% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.50.
Who will win Cerro vs Penarol?
On our numbers Cerro have a 10% chance of winning, the draw 25% and Penarol 65%.
How many goals will there be in Cerro vs Penarol?
We expect about 2.4 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 43% likely and both teams score 51% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Cerro vs Penarol?
Our predicted score is Cerro 0–1 Penarol, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.4 goals in total.
When is Cerro vs Penarol?
Cerro vs Penarol (Primera División Apertura) kicks off on Saturday 19 September 2026 at 19:30 (West Africa Time).
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
