Independiente del Valle 64%Draw 23%LDU de Quito 13%Expected goals 1.89 – 0.74
87%
Betarazi pick
Independiente del Valle or draw
Very strong pick · fair odds 1.15 · bookmaker 1.20 · Won ✓
10/10Rating
1.20Odds
1
Value bet: Independiente del Valle to win @ 1.75 – our chance 64% vs 57% implied by the price (edge +12%). Bigger price, more risk. Won ✓
Picks by market
ResultIndependiente del Valle to win ✓64% · @1.75
Double chanceIndependiente del Valle or draw ✓87% · @1.20
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✗56% · @1.67
GoalsOver 1.5 goals ✓74% · fair 1.35
Correct scoreCorrect score 2–1 ✗10% · fair 10.51
Independiente del Valle vs LDU de Quito: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
Independiente del Valle welcome LDU de Quito to Estadio Banco Guayaquil for a Liga Pro fixture on Sunday 1 November (19:30 WAT). In the table, Independiente del Valle are 1st on 84 points after 35 matches; LDU de Quito are 4th with 54. There are 30 points between them, and the seasons have gone in opposite directions.
Current form
Independiente del Valle, last 5: WDLWW Their latest outing: 3–0 win over Delfin SC, away. Goals for and against: 1.3 scored, 0.5 conceded per game. Defensively they have kept 3 clean sheets in that run.
LDU de Quito, last 5: DLDWW Their latest outing: 2–2 draw with Universidad Catolica, away. Goals for and against: 1.8 scored, 1.5 conceded per game.
Head to head
When they last met (8 Aug 2026) it ended LDU de Quito 0–2 Independiente del Valle.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give Independiente del Valle 1.9 xG, LDU de Quito 0.7 xG – a total near 2.6. Neither a goal-fest nor a stalemate: over 2.5 is 49%, GG 56%.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – Independiente del Valle 64%, draw 23%, LDU de Quito 13%.
Lower-risk option: Independiente del Valle or draw (87%) at 1.20.
GG/NG: GG (56%) at 1.67.
Price worth noting: Independiente del Valle to win @1.75 – the bookmaker implies 57%, our ratings say 64%.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was Independiente del Valle or draw (87%, odds 1.20 – longer than our fair 1.15, so there is value too). Most likely score in line with that pick: Independiente del Valle 1–0 LDU de Quito. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
Independiente del Valle64%fair 1.56 · @1.75
Draw23%fair 4.34 · @3.30
LDU de Quito13%fair 7.72 · @3.90
2.63Expected goals
1.89Independiente del Valle xG
0.74LDU de Quito xG
56%Both score
49%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
1–014%
2–013%
1–110%
2–110%
3–08%
0–07%
From our goals model: Independiente del Valle 1.9 – 0.7 LDU de Quito expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
All markets: our price vs the bookmaker
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Independiente del Valle to win✓
64%
1.56
1.75 ▲
Double chance
Independiente del Valle or draw✓
87%
1.15
1.20
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✗
56%
1.79
1.67
Draw no bet
Independiente del Valle (draw no bet)✓
83%
1.20
–
Asian handicap
Independiente del Valle -0.5 (Asian handicap)✓
65%
1.54
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
74%
1.35
–
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✓
51%
1.96
–
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
73%
1.37
–
Over/under 4.5 goals
Under 4.5 goals✓
87%
1.15
–
First team to score
Independiente del Valle to score first✓
67%
1.50
–
Half-time result
Independiente del Valle ahead at half-time✗
46%
2.18
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Independiente del Valle / FT Independiente del Valle✗
What is the prediction for Independiente del Valle vs LDU de Quito?
Our pick is Independiente del Valle or draw with a 87% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.20.
Who will win Independiente del Valle vs LDU de Quito?
On our numbers Independiente del Valle have a 64% chance of winning, the draw 23% and LDU de Quito 13%.
How many goals will there be in Independiente del Valle vs LDU de Quito?
We expect about 2.6 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 49% likely and both teams score 56% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Independiente del Valle vs LDU de Quito?
Our predicted score is Independiente del Valle 1–0 LDU de Quito, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.6 goals in total.
When is Independiente del Valle vs LDU de Quito?
Independiente del Valle vs LDU de Quito (Liga Pro) kicks off on Sunday 1 November 2026 at 19:30 (West Africa Time) at Estadio Banco Guayaquil.
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
