Bournemouth 38%Draw 22%Aston Villa 40%Expected goals 1.98 – 2.02
67%
Betarazi pick
Both teams to score
Good pick · fair odds 1.49 · bookmaker 1.57 · Lost ✗
6/10Rating
1.57Odds
2
Value bet: Aston Villa to win @ 2.90 – our chance 40% vs 34% implied by the price (edge +15%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Picks by market
ResultAston Villa to win ✗40% · @2.90
Double chanceEither team to win ✓78% · @1.30
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✗67% · @1.57
GoalsOver 2.5 goals ✓76% · fair 1.31
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–2 ✗7% · fair 13.53
Bournemouth vs Aston Villa: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
20:45 WAT, Wednesday 28 October: Bournemouth v Aston Villa in the League Cup, played at Vitality Stadium.
Current form
Bournemouth, last 5: WWWWL Their latest outing: 3–0 win over Manchester United, away. In their own stadium the record reads 3 won, 1 lost from 4. Scoring is no problem – 2.0 a game lately. Defensively they have kept 4 clean sheets in that run.
Aston Villa, last 5: WWWWD Their latest outing: 2–1 win over Manchester City, at home. The attack is flying at 2.8 goals per game.
Momentum favours Aston Villa, collecting 2.7 points per game to 2.0 for Bournemouth.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give Bournemouth 2.0 xG, Aston Villa 2.0 xG – a total near 4.0. Both nets should be busy – over 2.5 sits at 76% and GG at 67%. Both teams' recent matches have tended to go over 2.5.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – Bournemouth 38%, draw 22%, Aston Villa 40%.
GG/NG: GG (67%) at 1.57.
Price worth noting: Aston Villa to win @2.90 – the bookmaker implies 34%, our ratings say 40%.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was Both teams to score (67%, odds 1.57 – longer than our fair 1.49, so there is value too). Most likely score in line with that pick: Bournemouth 1–2 Aston Villa. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
Bournemouth38%fair 2.62 · @2.25
Draw22%fair 4.47 · @3.30
Aston Villa40%fair 2.53 · @2.90
4.00Expected goals
1.98Bournemouth xG
2.02Aston Villa xG
67%Both score
76%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
1–27%
1–17%
2–27%
2–17%
1–35%
2–35%
From our goals model: Bournemouth 2.0 – 2.0 Aston Villa expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
All markets: our price vs the bookmaker
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Aston Villa to win✗
40%
2.53
2.90 ▲
Double chance
Either team to win✓
78%
1.29
1.30
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✗
67%
1.49
1.57 ▲
Draw no bet
Aston Villa (draw no bet)✗
51%
1.96
–
Asian handicap
Bournemouth +1 (Asian handicap)✓
73%
1.37
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
91%
1.10
–
Over/under 2.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals✓
76%
1.31
–
Over/under 3.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals✗
57%
1.77
–
Over/under 4.5 goals
Under 4.5 goals✓
63%
1.59
–
First team to score
Aston Villa to score first✗
50%
2.02
–
Half-time result
Aston Villa ahead at half-time✗
34%
2.96
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Aston Villa / FT Aston Villa✗
25%
4.05
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–2✗
7%
13.53
–
Recent results
Bournemouth – last 6
WWWWLL
25 Oct
@ Manchester United
3–0
W
22 Oct
vs AC Milan
3–0
W
18 Oct
vs Sunderland
2–0
W
15 Oct
vs Sturm Graz
3–0
W
10 Oct
@ Chelsea
1–5
L
20 Sep
vs Liverpool
0–1
L
2.0Scored / game
1.0Conceded / game
17%Both scored
67%Over 2.5
Aston Villa – last 6
WWWWDW
24 Oct
vs Manchester City
2–1
W
21 Oct
vs Viking
3–1
W
17 Oct
@ Newcastle
1–0
W
14 Oct
vs Fenerbahçe
6–0
W
10 Oct
vs Brentford
2–2
D
2 Oct
@ Sevilla
3–1
W
2.8Scored / game
0.8Conceded / game
67%Both scored
83%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Bournemouth and Aston Villa.
What is the prediction for Bournemouth vs Aston Villa?
Our pick is Both teams to score with a 67% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.57.
Who will win Bournemouth vs Aston Villa?
On our numbers Bournemouth have a 38% chance of winning, the draw 22% and Aston Villa 40%.
How many goals will there be in Bournemouth vs Aston Villa?
We expect about 4.0 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 76% likely and both teams score 67% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Bournemouth vs Aston Villa?
Our predicted score is Bournemouth 1–2 Aston Villa, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 4.0 goals in total.
When is Bournemouth vs Aston Villa?
Bournemouth vs Aston Villa (League Cup) kicks off on Wednesday 28 October 2026 at 20:45 (West Africa Time) at Vitality Stadium.
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
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