Value bet: Chelsea to win @ 2.90 – our chance 37% vs 34% implied by the price (edge +6%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Picks by market
ResultLiverpool to win ✗43% · @2.10
Double chanceEither team to win ✗79% · @1.25
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✓72% · @1.40
GoalsOver 3.5 goals ✗73% · fair 1.36
Correct scoreCorrect score 3–2 ✗6% · fair 17.68
Liverpool vs Chelsea: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
21:00 WAT, Wednesday 28 October: Liverpool v Chelsea in the League Cup, played at Anfield.
Current form
Liverpool, last 5: WWWWL Their latest outing: 2–0 win over Brighton, at home. In their own stadium the record reads 2 won, 1 lost from 3. The attack is flying at 2.5 goals per game.
Chelsea, last 5: LWWLD Their latest outing: 0–2 defeat to Tottenham, at home. 2.5 goals per outing makes them dangerous.
Momentum favours Liverpool, collecting 2.5 points per game to 1.7 for Chelsea.
Head to head
When they last met (9 May 2026) it ended Liverpool 1–1 Chelsea.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give Liverpool 2.6 xG, Chelsea 2.4 xG – a total near 5.0. That is an open game on paper: 88% for three or more goals, 72% for GG. Both teams' recent matches have tended to go over 2.5.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – Liverpool 43%, draw 21%, Chelsea 37%.
GG/NG: GG (72%) at 1.40.
Price worth noting: Chelsea to win @2.90 – the bookmaker implies 34%, our ratings say 37%.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was Both teams to score (72%, odds 1.40). Most likely score in line with that pick: Liverpool 2–2 Chelsea. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
Liverpool43%fair 2.35 · @2.10
Draw21%fair 4.82 · @3.60
Chelsea37%fair 2.73 · @2.90
5.00Expected goals
2.59Liverpool xG
2.41Chelsea xG
72%Both score
88%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
2–27%
3–26%
2–15%
2–35%
1–25%
3–15%
From our goals model: Liverpool 2.6 – 2.4 Chelsea expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Our pick is Both teams to score with a 72% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.40.
Who will win Liverpool vs Chelsea?
On our numbers Liverpool have a 43% chance of winning, the draw 21% and Chelsea 37%.
How many goals will there be in Liverpool vs Chelsea?
We expect about 5.0 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 88% likely and both teams score 72% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Liverpool vs Chelsea?
Our predicted score is Liverpool 2–2 Chelsea, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 5.0 goals in total.
When is Liverpool vs Chelsea?
Liverpool vs Chelsea (League Cup) kicks off on Wednesday 28 October 2026 at 21:00 (West Africa Time) at Anfield.
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
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