Value bet: Olympique Safi to win @ 1.90 – our chance 59% vs 53% implied by the price (edge +11%). Bigger price, more risk. Won ✓
Picks by market
ResultOlympique Safi to win ✓59% · @1.90
Double chanceOlympique Safi or draw ✓83% · @1.18
Both teams scoreNot both teams to score ✓66% · fair 1.50
GoalsUnder 2.5 goals ✓73% · @1.40
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–0 ✓25% · fair 4.06
Olympique Safi vs Chabab Ben Guerir: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
On Sunday 4 October the Botola 2 brings Olympique Safi against Chabab Ben Guerir at Stade El Massira. Kick-off: 17:00 WAT. In the table, Olympique Safi are 9th, lower half, on 9 points after 7 matches; Chabab Ben Guerir are 12th (lower half) with 7. Only 2 points split them, so the winner climbs above the loser.
Current form
Olympique Safi, last 5: DLDDD Their latest outing: 0–0 draw with Union Sportive Boujaad, away. In their own stadium the record reads 0 won, 2 lost from 3. Scoring is the worry: just 0.7 goals a game.
Chabab Ben Guerir, last 5: WDDDD Their latest outing: 2–0 win over Riadi Salmi, at home. Away from home the record reads 1 won, 0 lost from 3. Scoring is the worry: just 0.8 goals a game. Defensively they have kept 4 clean sheets in that run.
Momentum favours Chabab Ben Guerir, collecting 1.7 points per game to 0.7 for Olympique Safi.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give Olympique Safi 1.1 xG, Chabab Ben Guerir 0.4 xG – a total near 1.5. On paper it is a low-scoring affair, with under 2.5 at 73% and a clean sheet for one side more likely than not. Both teams' recent matches have tended to stay under 2.5.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – Olympique Safi 59%, draw 24%, Chabab Ben Guerir 17%.
Lower-risk option: Olympique Safi or draw (83%) at 1.18.
Price worth noting: Olympique Safi to win @1.90 – the bookmaker implies 53%, our ratings say 59%.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was Under 2.5 goals (73%, odds 1.40 – longer than our fair 1.37, so there is value too). Most likely score in line with that pick: Olympique Safi 1–0 Chabab Ben Guerir. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
Olympique Safi59%fair 1.71 · @1.90
Draw24%fair 4.09 · @3.00
Chabab Ben Guerir17%fair 5.90 · @3.90
1.53Expected goals
1.13Olympique Safi xG
0.39Chabab Ben Guerir xG
34%Both score
27%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
1–025%
0–022%
2–014%
1–110%
0–19%
2–15%
From our goals model: Olympique Safi 1.1 – 0.4 Chabab Ben Guerir expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
All markets: our price vs the bookmaker
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Olympique Safi to win✓
59%
1.71
1.90 ▲
Double chance
Olympique Safi or draw✓
83%
1.20
1.18
Both teams to score
Not both teams to score✓
66%
1.50
–
Draw no bet
Olympique Safi (draw no bet)✓
78%
1.29
–
Asian handicap
Chabab Ben Guerir +1 (Asian handicap)
65%
1.53
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Under 1.5 goals✓
55%
1.82
–
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✓
73%
1.37
1.40
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
93%
1.07
–
Over/under 4.5 goals
Under 4.5 goals✓
98%
1.02
–
First team to score
Olympique Safi to score first✓
58%
1.72
–
Half-time result
Level at half-time✗
56%
1.80
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Olympique Safi / FT Olympique Safi✓
31%
3.20
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–0✓
25%
4.06
–
Recent results
Olympique Safi – last 6
DLDDDL
26 Sep
@ Union Sportive Boujaad
0–0
D
5 Jul
vs Raja Casablanca
0–2
L
2 Jul
@ Olympique Dcheïra
1–1
D
28 Jun
vs CODM Meknès
2–2
D
25 Jun
@ CR Khemis Zemamra
1–1
D
21 Jun
vs Yacoub El Mansour
0–1
L
0.7Scored / game
1.2Conceded / game
50%Both scored
17%Over 2.5
Chabab Ben Guerir – last 6
WDDDDW
27 Sep
vs Riadi Salmi
2–0
W
5 Jul
@ Riadi Salmi
1–1
D
27 Jun
vs Union Sportive Boujaad
0–0
D
20 Jun
@ Mouloudia Oujda
1–1
D
13 Jun
vs Moghreb Tetouan
0–0
D
7 Jun
@ Racing de Casablanca
1–0
W
0.8Scored / game
0.3Conceded / game
33%Both scored
0%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Olympique Safi and Chabab Ben Guerir.
What is the prediction for Olympique Safi vs Chabab Ben Guerir?
Our pick is Under 2.5 goals with a 73% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.40.
Who will win Olympique Safi vs Chabab Ben Guerir?
On our numbers Olympique Safi have a 59% chance of winning, the draw 24% and Chabab Ben Guerir 17%.
How many goals will there be in Olympique Safi vs Chabab Ben Guerir?
We expect about 1.5 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 27% likely and both teams score 34% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Olympique Safi vs Chabab Ben Guerir?
Our predicted score is Olympique Safi 1–0 Chabab Ben Guerir, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 1.5 goals in total.
When is Olympique Safi vs Chabab Ben Guerir?
Olympique Safi vs Chabab Ben Guerir (Botola 2) kicks off on Sunday 4 October 2026 at 17:00 (West Africa Time) at Stade El Massira.
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
