Liverpool Montevideo 64%Draw 20%Progreso 16%Expected goals 1.63 – 0.62
64%
Betarazi pick
Liverpool Montevideo to win
Good pick · fair odds 1.56 · bookmaker 1.65 · Won ✓
6/10Rating
1.65Odds
Picks by market
ResultLiverpool Montevideo to win ✓64% · @1.65
Double chanceLiverpool Montevideo or draw ✓84% · @1.18
Both teams scoreNot both teams to score ✗52% · @1.91
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✗81% · fair 1.24
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–0 ✗17% · fair 5.82
Liverpool Montevideo vs Progreso: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
15:00 WAT, Saturday 3 October: Liverpool Montevideo v Progreso in the Primera División Apertura, played at Estadio Alfredo Victor Viera. In the table, Liverpool Montevideo are 1st, leading the league, on 30 points after 13 matches; Progreso are 7th (upper half) with 19.
Current form
Liverpool Montevideo, last 5: WWDLW Their latest outing: 2–1 win over Central Espanol, away. In their own stadium the record reads 2 won, 1 lost from 4. Goals for and against: 1.2 scored, 0.8 conceded per game. Defensively they have kept 3 clean sheets in that run.
Progreso, last 5: WWLLW Their latest outing: 2–1 win over Racing Montevideo, at home. Away from home the record reads 2 won, 1 lost from 3. Goals for and against: 1.2 scored, 1.3 conceded per game.
Head to head
When they last met (31 Mar 2026) it ended Progreso 3–3 Liverpool Montevideo.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give Liverpool Montevideo 1.6 xG, Progreso 0.6 xG – a total near 2.3. Neither a goal-fest nor a stalemate: over 2.5 is 39%, GG 48%.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – Liverpool Montevideo 64%, draw 20%, Progreso 16%.
Lower-risk option: Liverpool Montevideo or draw (84%) at 1.18.
GG/NG: NG (52%) at 1.91.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was Liverpool Montevideo to win (64%, odds 1.65 – longer than our fair 1.56, so there is value too). Most likely score in line with that pick: Liverpool Montevideo 1–0 Progreso. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
Liverpool Montevideo64%fair 1.56 · @1.65
Draw20%fair 5.08 · @3.80
Progreso16%fair 6.19 · @4.60
2.25Expected goals
1.63Liverpool Montevideo xG
0.62Progreso xG
48%Both score
39%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
1–017%
2–014%
1–111%
0–011%
2–19%
3–08%
From our goals model: Liverpool Montevideo 1.6 – 0.6 Progreso expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
All markets: our price vs the bookmaker
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Liverpool Montevideo to win✓
64%
1.56
1.65 ▲
Double chance
Liverpool Montevideo or draw✓
84%
1.19
1.18
Both teams to score
Not both teams to score✗
52%
1.94
1.91
Draw no bet
Liverpool Montevideo (draw no bet)✓
80%
1.25
–
Asian handicap
Liverpool Montevideo -0.5 (Asian handicap)✓
62%
1.62
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
66%
1.52
–
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✗
61%
1.64
–
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✗
81%
1.24
–
Over/under 4.5 goals
Under 4.5 goals✗
92%
1.08
–
First team to score
Liverpool Montevideo to score first✓
65%
1.54
–
Half-time result
Level at half-time✗
45%
2.23
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Liverpool Montevideo / FT Liverpool Montevideo✓
What is the prediction for Liverpool Montevideo vs Progreso?
Our pick is Liverpool Montevideo to win with a 64% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.65.
Who will win Liverpool Montevideo vs Progreso?
On our numbers Liverpool Montevideo have a 64% chance of winning, the draw 20% and Progreso 16%.
How many goals will there be in Liverpool Montevideo vs Progreso?
We expect about 2.3 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 39% likely and both teams score 48% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Liverpool Montevideo vs Progreso?
Our predicted score is Liverpool Montevideo 1–0 Progreso, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.3 goals in total.
When is Liverpool Montevideo vs Progreso?
Liverpool Montevideo vs Progreso (Primera División Apertura) kicks off on Saturday 3 October 2026 at 15:00 (West Africa Time) at Estadio Alfredo Victor Viera.
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
