Deportivo Maldonado v Central Espanol Prediction & Expected Goals (3 Oct) – Odds, Stats, Pick

Picks by market

ResultDeportivo Maldonado to win ✓66% · @1.65

Double chanceDeportivo Maldonado or draw ✓87% · @1.17

Both teams scoreNot both teams to score ✓51% · @1.75

GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✓78% · fair 1.28

Correct scoreCorrect score 1–0 ✗16% · fair 6.21

Deportivo Maldonado vs Central Espanol: Betarazi preview and prediction

The fixture

Central Espanol travel to face Deportivo Maldonado on Saturday 3 October in the Primera División Apertura, with Estadio Domingo Burgueño Miguel the venue – the ball rolls at 22:00 WAT. In the table, Deportivo Maldonado are 4th, among the top four, on 22 points after 13 matches; Central Espanol are 16th (in the drop zone) with 8. There are 14 points between them, and the seasons have gone in opposite directions.

Current form

Deportivo Maldonado, last 5: WWWLW Their latest outing: 2–0 win over Atletico Torque, away. In their own stadium the record reads 3 won, 0 lost from 3. Scoring is no problem – 2.0 a game lately. Defensively they have kept 3 clean sheets in that run.

Central Espanol, last 5: LLDDW Their latest outing: 1–2 defeat to Liverpool Montevideo, at home. Goals for and against: 1.3 scored, 1.7 conceded per game.

Momentum favours Deportivo Maldonado, collecting 2.5 points per game to 1.0 for Central Espanol.

Head to head

When they last met (31 Mar 2026) it ended Central Espanol 2–1 Deportivo Maldonado.

Where the goals come from

Betarazi's ratings give Deportivo Maldonado 1.8 xG, Central Espanol 0.6 xG – a total near 2.4. Neither a goal-fest nor a stalemate: over 2.5 is 43%, GG 49%.

Markets worth a look

1X2 according to our numbers – Deportivo Maldonado 66%, draw 21%, Central Espanol 13%.
Lower-risk option: Deportivo Maldonado or draw (87%) at 1.17.
GG/NG: NG (51%) at 1.75.

Our call before kick-off

Our pre-match call was Deportivo Maldonado to win (66%, odds 1.65 – longer than our fair 1.52, so there is value too). Most likely score in line with that pick: Deportivo Maldonado 1–0 Central Espanol. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.

Result chances

Deportivo Maldonado66%fair 1.52 · @1.65

Draw21%fair 4.68 · @3.60

Central Espanol13%fair 7.70 · @4.80

2.40Expected goals

1.78Deportivo Maldonado xG

0.62Central Espanol xG

49%Both score

43%Over 2.5

Score grid: top six

1–016%

2–014%

1–110%

0–09%

2–19%

3–08%

From our goals model: Deportivo Maldonado 1.8 – 0.6 Central Espanol expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.

All markets: our price vs the bookmaker

Market	Most likely	Chance	Fair odds	Bookmaker
Match result	Deportivo Maldonado to win ✓	66%	1.52	1.65 ▲
Double chance	Deportivo Maldonado or draw ✓	87%	1.15	1.17
Both teams to score	Not both teams to score ✓	51%	1.96	1.75
Draw no bet	Deportivo Maldonado (draw no bet) ✓	83%	1.20	–
Asian handicap	Deportivo Maldonado -0.5 (Asian handicap) ✓	65%	1.53	–
Over/under 1.5 goals	Over 1.5 goals ✓	69%	1.45	–
Over/under 2.5 goals	Under 2.5 goals ✗	57%	1.76	–
Over/under 3.5 goals	Under 3.5 goals ✓	78%	1.28	–
Over/under 4.5 goals	Under 4.5 goals ✓	90%	1.11	–
First team to score	Deportivo Maldonado to score first ✓	67%	1.49	–
Half-time result	Deportivo Maldonado ahead at half-time ✓	45%	2.21	–
Half-time / full-time	HT Deportivo Maldonado / FT Deportivo Maldonado ✓	41%	2.43	–
Correct score	Correct score 1–0 ✗	16%	6.21	–

Deportivo Maldonado – last 6

WWWLWW

27 Sep	@ Atletico Torque	2–0	W
24 Sep	@ Cerro	2–1	W
19 Sep	vs Juventud	2–0	W
13 Sep	@ Defensor Sporting	0–1	L
10 Sep	vs Wanderers	4–1	W
5 Sep	vs Wanderers	2–0	W

2.0Scored / game

0.5Conceded / game

33%Both scored

33%Over 2.5

Central Espanol – last 6

LLDDWD

27 Sep	vs Liverpool Montevideo	1–2	L
21 Sep	vs Atletico Torque	1–4	L
17 Sep	vs Oriental	1–1	D
13 Sep	@ Cerro Largo	0–0	D
9 Sep	@ Racing Montevideo	4–2	W
6 Sep	vs Defensor Sporting	1–1	D

1.3Scored / game

1.7Conceded / game

83%Both scored

50%Over 2.5

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Penarol	35	19	9	7	+24	65
2	Deportivo Maldonado	35	18	9	8	+22	63
3	Atletico Torque	35	19	6	10	+18	63
4	Club Nacional	35	19	4	12	+11	61
5	Racing Montevideo	35	16	12	7	+14	60
6	Liverpool Montevideo	35	16	11	8	+16	59
7	Wanderers	35	14	9	12	-2	51
8	Albion FC	35	13	8	14	+3	47
9	Juventud	35	10	11	14	-6	41
10	Central Espanol	35	11	8	16	-13	41
11	Defensor Sporting	35	9	12	14	-8	39
12	Cerro Largo	35	9	10	16	-8	37
13	Boston River	35	10	7	18	-13	37
14	Cerro	35	10	7	18	-24	37
15	Progreso	35	10	5	20	-18	35
16	Danubio	35	6	14	15	-16	32

Team

Pts

+24

+22

+18

+11

+14

+16

-2

-6

-13

-8

-8

-13

-24

-18

-16

Frequently asked questions

What is the prediction for Deportivo Maldonado vs Central Espanol?

Our pick is Deportivo Maldonado to win with a 66% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.65.

Who will win Deportivo Maldonado vs Central Espanol?

On our numbers Deportivo Maldonado have a 66% chance of winning, the draw 21% and Central Espanol 13%.

How many goals will there be in Deportivo Maldonado vs Central Espanol?

We expect about 2.4 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 43% likely and both teams score 49% of the time on our projection.

What is the predicted score for Deportivo Maldonado vs Central Espanol?

Our predicted score is Deportivo Maldonado 1–0 Central Espanol, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.4 goals in total.

When is Deportivo Maldonado vs Central Espanol?

Deportivo Maldonado vs Central Espanol (Primera División Apertura) kicks off on Saturday 3 October 2026 at 22:00 (West Africa Time) at Estadio Domingo Burgueño Miguel.

Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.

Deportivo Maldonado v Central Espanol: numbers & prediction