Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa v Septemvri Sofia Prediction & Expected Goals (17 Oct) – Odds, Stats, Pick

Picks by market

ResultSeptemvri Sofia to win ✗63% · @1.73

Double chanceSeptemvri Sofia or draw ✓83% · @1.18

Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✓64% · @1.80

GoalsOver 2.5 goals ✗76% · fair 1.31

Correct scoreCorrect score 1–2 ✗9% · fair 11.53

Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa vs Septemvri Sofia: Betarazi preview and prediction

The fixture

13:00 WAT, Saturday 17 October: Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa v Septemvri Sofia in the Cup.

Current form

Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa, last 5: DWDWD Their latest outing: 0–0 draw with Rilski Sportist, away. Scoring is the worry: just 0.8 goals a game. Defensively they have kept 4 clean sheets in that run.

Septemvri Sofia, last 5: LLLLD Their latest outing: 2–3 defeat to Dunav Ruse, at home. Goals for and against: 1.2 scored, 2.0 conceded per game.

Momentum favours Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa, collecting 1.7 points per game to 0.7 for Septemvri Sofia.

Where the goals come from

Betarazi's ratings give Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa 1.4 xG, Septemvri Sofia 2.6 xG – a total near 4.0. That is an open game on paper: 76% for three or more goals, 64% for GG.

Markets worth a look

1X2 according to our numbers – Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa 17%, draw 21%, Septemvri Sofia 63%.
Lower-risk option: Septemvri Sofia or draw (83%) at 1.18.
GG/NG: GG (64%) at 1.80.

Our call before kick-off

Our pre-match call was Both teams to score (64%, odds 1.80 – longer than our fair 1.56, so there is value too). Most likely score in line with that pick: Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa 1–2 Septemvri Sofia. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.

Result chances

Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa17%fair 5.91 · @4.40

Draw21%fair 4.87 · @3.30

Septemvri Sofia63%fair 1.60 · @1.73

4.00Expected goals

1.38Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa xG

2.62Septemvri Sofia xG

64%Both score

76%Over 2.5

Score grid: top six

1–29%

1–38%

1–17%

0–26%

2–26%

0–35%

From our goals model: Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa 1.4 – 2.6 Septemvri Sofia expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.

All markets: our price vs the bookmaker

Market	Most likely	Chance	Fair odds	Bookmaker
Match result	Septemvri Sofia to win ✗	63%	1.60	1.73 ▲
Double chance	Septemvri Sofia or draw ✓	83%	1.20	1.18
Both teams to score	Both teams to score ✓	64%	1.56	1.80 ▲
Draw no bet	Septemvri Sofia (draw no bet)	79%	1.27	–
Asian handicap	Septemvri Sofia -0.5 (Asian handicap) ✗	64%	1.56	–
Over/under 1.5 goals	Over 1.5 goals ✓	91%	1.10	–
Over/under 2.5 goals	Over 2.5 goals ✗	76%	1.31	–
Over/under 3.5 goals	Over 3.5 goals ✗	57%	1.77	–
Over/under 4.5 goals	Under 4.5 goals ✓	63%	1.59	–
First team to score	Septemvri Sofia to score first ✓	64%	1.55	–
Half-time result	Septemvri Sofia ahead at half-time ✓	49%	2.04	–
Half-time / full-time	HT Septemvri Sofia / FT Septemvri Sofia ✗	43%	2.35	–
Correct score	Correct score 1–2 ✗	9%	11.53	–

Market

Most likely

Chance

Fair odds

Bookmaker

Match result

Septemvri Sofia to win ✗

63%

1.60

1.73 ▲

Double chance

Septemvri Sofia or draw ✓

83%

1.20

1.18

Both teams to score

Both teams to score ✓

64%

1.56

1.80 ▲

Draw no bet

Septemvri Sofia (draw no bet)

79%

1.27

–

Asian handicap

Septemvri Sofia -0.5 (Asian handicap) ✗

64%

1.56

–

Over/under 1.5 goals

Over 1.5 goals ✓

91%

1.10

–

Over/under 2.5 goals

Over 2.5 goals ✗

76%

1.31

–

Over/under 3.5 goals

Over 3.5 goals ✗

57%

1.77

–

Over/under 4.5 goals

Under 4.5 goals ✓

63%

1.59

–

First team to score

Septemvri Sofia to score first ✓

64%

1.55

–

Half-time result

Septemvri Sofia ahead at half-time ✓

49%

2.04

–

Half-time / full-time

HT Septemvri Sofia / FT Septemvri Sofia ✗

43%

2.35

–

Correct score

Correct score 1–2 ✗

11.53

–

10 Oct	@ Rilski Sportist	0–0	D
4 Oct	@ Natsional Sofia	3–1	W
26 Sep	vs Marek	0–0	D
20 Sep	@ Yantra 2019	1–0	W
15 Sep	vs Nesebar	1–1	D
7 Sep	@ Sportist Svoge	0–0	D

11 Oct	vs Dunav Ruse	2–3	L
19 Sep	vs Botev Plovdiv	0–3	L
14 Sep	@ Ludogorets	1–2	L
4 Sep	vs Botev Vratsa	2–3	L
28 Aug	@ Slavia Sofia	1–1	D
23 Aug	vs CSKA 1948	1–0	W

Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa v Septemvri Sofia: numbers & prediction