Value bet: Both teams to score @ 1.91 – our chance 61% vs 52% implied by the price (edge +17%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Picks by market
ResultCherno More Varna to win ✓71% · @1.30
Double chanceCherno More Varna or draw ✓92% · @1.06
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✗61% · @1.91
GoalsOver 2.5 goals ✓76% · fair 1.31
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–2 ✗8% · fair 11.84
Marek vs Cherno More Varna: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
On Saturday 17 October the Cup brings Marek against Cherno More Varna. Kick-off: 13:00 WAT.
Current form
Marek, last 5: WWDLW Their latest outing: 3–2 win over Beroe, at home. In their own stadium the record reads 2 won, 1 lost from 3. Goals for and against: 1.8 scored, 1.3 conceded per game. Defensively they have kept 3 clean sheets in that run.
Cherno More Varna, last 5: LLDDL Their latest outing: 0–2 defeat to Levski Sofia, at home. Away from home the record reads 0 won, 3 lost from 4. Scoring is the worry: just 0.7 goals a game.
Momentum favours Marek, collecting 1.7 points per game to 0.3 for Cherno More Varna.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give Marek 1.1 xG, Cherno More Varna 2.9 xG – a total near 4.0. Both nets should be busy – over 2.5 sits at 76% and GG at 61%. Both teams' recent matches have tended to go over 2.5.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – Marek 8%, draw 21%, Cherno More Varna 71%.
GG/NG: GG (61%) at 1.91.
Price worth noting: Both teams to score @1.91 – the bookmaker implies 52%, our ratings say 61%.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was Cherno More Varna to win (71%, odds 1.30). Most likely score in line with that pick: Marek 1–2 Cherno More Varna. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
Marek8%fair 12.80 · @9.00
Draw21%fair 4.81 · @4.40
Cherno More Varna71%fair 1.40 · @1.30
4.00Expected goals
1.08Marek xG
2.92Cherno More Varna xG
61%Both score
76%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
1–28%
1–38%
0–28%
0–38%
1–46%
1–16%
From our goals model: Marek 1.1 – 2.9 Cherno More Varna expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
All markets: our price vs the bookmaker
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Cherno More Varna to win✓
71%
1.40
1.30
Double chance
Cherno More Varna or draw✓
92%
1.08
1.06
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✗
61%
1.63
1.91 ▲
Draw no bet
Cherno More Varna (draw no bet)✓
90%
1.11
–
Asian handicap
Cherno More Varna -1 (Asian handicap)✓
69%
1.46
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
91%
1.10
–
Over/under 2.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals✓
76%
1.31
–
Over/under 3.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals✗
57%
1.77
–
Over/under 4.5 goals
Under 4.5 goals✓
63%
1.59
–
First team to score
Cherno More Varna to score first✓
72%
1.40
–
Half-time result
Cherno More Varna ahead at half-time✓
57%
1.77
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Cherno More Varna / FT Cherno More Varna✓
52%
1.92
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–2✗
8%
11.84
–
Recent results
Marek – last 6
WWDLWL
10 Oct
vs Beroe
3–2
W
4 Oct
@ Chavdar Troyan
4–0
W
26 Sep
@ Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa
0–0
D
20 Sep
vs Rilski Sportist
1–3
L
13 Sep
vs Pirin Blagoevgrad
3–0
W
6 Sep
@ Yantra 2019
0–3
L
1.8Scored / game
1.3Conceded / game
33%Both scored
83%Over 2.5
Cherno More Varna – last 6
LLDDLL
11 Oct
vs Levski Sofia
0–2
L
4 Oct
@ Ludogorets
0–5
L
19 Sep
@ Arda Kardzhali
1–1
D
11 Sep
vs Lokomotiv Sofia
2–2
D
6 Sep
@ Lokomotiv Plovdiv
0–1
L
30 Aug
@ CSKA Sofia
1–3
L
0.7Scored / game
2.3Conceded / game
50%Both scored
50%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Marek and Cherno More Varna.
What is the prediction for Marek vs Cherno More Varna?
Our pick is Cherno More Varna to win with a 71% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.30.
Who will win Marek vs Cherno More Varna?
On our numbers Marek have a 8% chance of winning, the draw 21% and Cherno More Varna 71%.
How many goals will there be in Marek vs Cherno More Varna?
We expect about 4.0 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 76% likely and both teams score 61% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Marek vs Cherno More Varna?
Our predicted score is Marek 1–2 Cherno More Varna, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 4.0 goals in total.
When is Marek vs Cherno More Varna?
Marek vs Cherno More Varna (Cup) kicks off on Saturday 17 October 2026 at 13:00 (West Africa Time).
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
Vihren1
Lokomotiv Sofia2
Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa1
Septemvri Sofia1
Rilski Sportist2
Dunav Ruse3
Beroe0
Ludogorets3