Value bet: Progreso to win @ 3.25 – our chance 35% vs 31% implied by the price (edge +14%). Bigger price, more risk. Won ✓
Picks by market
ResultWanderers to win ✗42% · @2.10
Double chanceEither team to win ✓77% · @1.33
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✗55% · @1.75
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✓76% · fair 1.31
Correct scoreCorrect score 2–1 ✗8% · fair 11.88
Wanderers vs Progreso: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
On Sunday 25 October the Primera División Apertura brings Wanderers against Progreso at Estadio Alfredo Victor Viera. Kick-off: 14:00 WAT. In the table, Wanderers are 10th, lower half, on 16 points after 13 matches; Progreso are 7th (upper half) with 19. Only 3 points split them, so the winner climbs above the loser.
Current form
Wanderers, last 5: LLDWW Their latest outing: 0–3 defeat to Racing Montevideo, away. In their own stadium the record reads 1 won, 2 lost from 3. Goals for and against: 1.3 scored, 2.0 conceded per game.
Progreso, last 5: WDLWW Their latest outing: 2–0 win over Juventud, at home. Away from home the record reads 1 won, 1 lost from 3. Goals for and against: 1.5 scored, 1.2 conceded per game.
Momentum favours Progreso, collecting 1.7 points per game to 1.2 for Wanderers.
Head to head
When they last met (11 Jul 2026) it ended Wanderers 2–0 Progreso.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give Wanderers 1.3 xG, Progreso 1.2 xG – a total near 2.5. Neither a goal-fest nor a stalemate: over 2.5 is 45%, GG 55%. Both teams' recent matches have tended to go over 2.5.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – Wanderers 42%, draw 23%, Progreso 35%.
GG/NG: GG (55%) at 1.75.
Price worth noting: Progreso to win @3.25 – the bookmaker implies 31%, our ratings say 35%.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was Both teams to score (55%, odds 1.75). Most likely score in line with that pick: Wanderers 1–1 Progreso. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
Wanderers42%fair 2.38 · @2.10
Draw23%fair 4.40 · @3.20
Progreso35%fair 2.84 · @3.25
2.48Expected goals
1.31Wanderers xG
1.17Progreso xG
55%Both score
45%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
1–113%
1–011%
0–110%
2–18%
0–08%
1–27%
From our goals model: Wanderers 1.3 – 1.2 Progreso expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Our pick is Both teams to score with a 55% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.75.
Who will win Wanderers vs Progreso?
On our numbers Wanderers have a 42% chance of winning, the draw 23% and Progreso 35%.
How many goals will there be in Wanderers vs Progreso?
We expect about 2.5 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 45% likely and both teams score 55% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Wanderers vs Progreso?
Our predicted score is Wanderers 1–1 Progreso, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.5 goals in total.
When is Wanderers vs Progreso?
Wanderers vs Progreso (Primera División Apertura) kicks off on Sunday 25 October 2026 at 14:00 (West Africa Time) at Estadio Alfredo Victor Viera.
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
