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BetaraziFootball predictions · read by the numbers

Penarol v Wanderers: numbers & prediction

Primera División Apertura · Uruguay

Penarol

LDLDW
1–1
FT

Wanderers

LLLDW
Penarol 68%Draw 22%Wanderers 10% Expected goals 1.91 – 0.58
68%
Betarazi pick

Penarol to win

Strong pick · fair odds 1.46 · bookmaker 1.44 · Lost ✗

7/10Rating
1.44Odds

Picks by market

ResultPenarol to win ✗68% · @1.44
Double chancePenarol or draw ✓90% · @1.10
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✓50% · @2.10
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✓76% · fair 1.32
Correct scoreCorrect score 2–1 ✗9% · fair 11.39

Penarol vs Wanderers: Betarazi preview and prediction

The fixture

On Saturday 31 October the Primera División Apertura brings Penarol against Wanderers. Kick-off: 20:30 WAT. In the table, Penarol are 5th, upper half, on 22 points after 13 matches; Wanderers are 10th (lower half) with 16.

Current form

Penarol, last 5: LDLDW Their latest outing: 0–2 defeat to Atletico Torque, at home. Scoring is the worry: just 0.5 goals a game.

Wanderers, last 5: LLLDW Their latest outing: 0–1 defeat to Progreso, at home. Away from home the record reads 1 won, 1 lost from 3. Goals for and against: 1.2 scored, 1.7 conceded per game.

Head to head

When they last met (6 Aug 2026) it ended Penarol 5–1 Wanderers.

Where the goals come from

Betarazi's ratings give Penarol 1.9 xG, Wanderers 0.6 xG – a total near 2.5. Neither a goal-fest nor a stalemate: over 2.5 is 45%, GG 50%.

Markets worth a look

  • 1X2 according to our numbers – Penarol 68%, draw 22%, Wanderers 10%.
  • GG/NG: GG (50%) at 2.10.

Our call before kick-off

Our pre-match call was Penarol to win (68%, odds 1.44). Most likely score in line with that pick: Penarol 1–0 Wanderers. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.

Result chances

Penarol68%fair 1.46 · @1.44
Draw22%fair 4.50 · @3.80
Wanderers10%fair 10.49 · @6.50
2.49Expected goals
1.91Penarol xG
0.58Wanderers xG
50%Both score
45%Over 2.5

Score grid: top six

1–016%
2–015%
3–010%
1–19%
2–19%
0–08%

From our goals model: Penarol 1.9 – 0.6 Wanderers expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.

All markets: our price vs the bookmaker

MarketMost likelyChanceFair oddsBookmaker
Match resultPenarol to win ✗68%1.461.44
Double chancePenarol or draw ✓90%1.111.10
Both teams to scoreBoth teams to score ✓50%1.992.10 ▲
Draw no betPenarol (draw no bet)88%1.14–
Asian handicapPenarol -0.5 (Asian handicap) ✗69%1.45–
Over/under 1.5 goalsOver 1.5 goals ✓71%1.41–
Over/under 2.5 goalsUnder 2.5 goals ✓55%1.83–
Over/under 3.5 goalsUnder 3.5 goals ✓76%1.32–
Over/under 4.5 goalsUnder 4.5 goals ✓89%1.12–
First team to scorePenarol to score first70%1.42–
Half-time resultPenarol ahead at half-time ✗48%2.07–
Half-time / full-timeHT Penarol / FT Penarol ✗44%2.25–
Correct scoreCorrect score 2–1 ✗9%11.39–

Recent results

Penarol – last 6

LDLDWD
27 Octvs Atletico Torque0–2L
24 Oct@ Juventud0–0D
18 Oct@ Liverpool Montevideo0–1L
10 Octvs Progreso1–1D
4 Oct@ Racing Montevideo1–0W
1 Oct@ Atletico Torque1–1D
0.5Scored / game
0.8Conceded / game
33%Both scored
0%Over 2.5

Wanderers – last 6

LLLDWW
25 Octvs Progreso0–1L
17 Oct@ Racing Montevideo0–3L
10 Octvs Boston River1–3L
7 Oct@ Cerrito2–2D
4 Oct@ Cerro2–0W
29 Sepvs Albion FC2–1W
1.2Scored / game
1.7Conceded / game
50%Both scored
67%Over 2.5

Head to head

6 Aug 2026Penarol v Wanderers5–1
Penarol vs Wanderers head-to-head page →

Primera División Apertura table

#TeamPWDLGDPts
1Penarol351997+2465
2Deportivo Maldonado351898+2263
3Atletico Torque3519610+1863
4Club Nacional3519412+1161
5Racing Montevideo3516127+1460
6Liverpool Montevideo3516118+1659
7Wanderers3514912-251
8Albion FC3513814+347
9Juventud35101114-641
10Central Espanol3511816-1341
11Defensor Sporting3591214-839
12Cerro Largo3591016-837
13Boston River3510718-1337
14Cerro3510718-2437
15Progreso3510520-1835
16Danubio3561415-1632

More Primera División Apertura predictions

League hub
FT Racing Montevideo3 Cerro Largo1 160%1.73X25%3.30215%4.80 1.5–0.6xG 1Racing Montevideo to win 60%@1.73 ✓
FT Cerro1 Central Espanol2 145%2.30X25%2.90230%3.20 1.3–1.0xG GGBoth teams to score 54%@1.91 ✓

Frequently asked questions

What is the prediction for Penarol vs Wanderers?

Our pick is Penarol to win with a 68% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.44.

Who will win Penarol vs Wanderers?

On our numbers Penarol have a 68% chance of winning, the draw 22% and Wanderers 10%.

How many goals will there be in Penarol vs Wanderers?

We expect about 2.5 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 45% likely and both teams score 50% of the time on our projection.

What is the predicted score for Penarol vs Wanderers?

Our predicted score is Penarol 1–0 Wanderers, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.5 goals in total.

When is Penarol vs Wanderers?

Penarol vs Wanderers (Primera División Apertura) kicks off on Saturday 31 October 2026 at 20:30 (West Africa Time).

Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.