Value bet: Both teams to score @ 2.75 – our chance 51% vs 36% implied by the price (edge +42%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Picks by market
ResultItaly U21 to win ✓76% · @1.07
Double chanceItaly U21 or draw ✓91% · fair 1.09
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✗51% · @2.75
GoalsOver 2.5 goals ✓68% · @1.36
Correct scoreCorrect score 2–1 ✗9% · fair 11.01
Italy U21 vs North Macedonia U21: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
On Thursday 26 March the UEFA U21 Championship Qualification brings Italy U21 against North Macedonia U21 at Stadio Carlo Castellani. Kick-off: 18:15 WAT. In the table, Italy U21 are 1st on 24 points after 10 matches; North Macedonia U21 are 5th with 9. There are 15 points between them, and the seasons have gone in opposite directions.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give Italy U21 2.6 xG, North Macedonia U21 0.9 xG – a total near 3.5. That is an open game on paper: 68% for three or more goals, 51% for GG.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – Italy U21 76%, draw 15%, North Macedonia U21 9%.
GG/NG: GG (51%) at 2.75.
Price worth noting: Both teams to score @2.75 – the bookmaker implies 36%, our ratings say 51%.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was Over 2.5 goals (68%, odds 1.36). Most likely score in line with that pick: Italy U21 2–1 North Macedonia U21. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
Italy U2176%fair 1.31 · @1.07
Draw15%fair 6.60 · @7.75
North Macedonia U219%fair 11.60 · @26.00
3.52Expected goals
2.64Italy U21 xG
0.88North Macedonia U21 xG
51%Both score
68%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
2–010%
2–19%
3–09%
3–18%
1–08%
1–17%
From our goals model: Italy U21 2.6 – 0.9 North Macedonia U21 expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Team ratings (Betarazi)
Italy U21
North Macedonia U21
Attack vs UEFA U21 Championship Qualification average
+41%
-20%
Goals conceded vs average
-16%
+2%
Our expected goals here
2.66
1.00
Our own ratings from every UEFA U21 Championship Qualification result in the last 14 months, recent games counting more. Attack +20% = scores 20% more than an average side; goals conceded −20% = a tighter defence than average. They feed into every chance on this page.
All markets: our price vs the bookmaker
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Italy U21 to win✓
76%
1.31
1.07
Double chance
Italy U21 or draw✓
91%
1.09
–
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✗
51%
1.94
2.75 ▲
Draw no bet
Italy U21 (draw no bet)✓
90%
1.11
–
Asian handicap
Italy U21 -1 (Asian handicap)✓
68%
1.47
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
87%
1.15
–
Over/under 2.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals✓
68%
1.46
1.36
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✗
52%
1.90
1.80
Over/under 4.5 goals
Under 4.5 goals✓
71%
1.41
1.33
First team to score
Italy U21 to score first✓
73%
1.37
–
Half-time result
Italy U21 ahead at half-time✓
56%
1.80
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Italy U21 / FT Italy U21✓
51%
1.94
–
Correct score
Correct score 2–1✗
9%
11.01
–
Recent results
Italy U21
No recent results on record.
North Macedonia U21
No recent results on record.
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Italy U21 and North Macedonia U21.
What is the prediction for Italy U21 vs North Macedonia U21?
Our pick is Over 2.5 goals with a 68% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.36.
Who will win Italy U21 vs North Macedonia U21?
On our numbers Italy U21 have a 76% chance of winning, the draw 15% and North Macedonia U21 9%.
How many goals will there be in Italy U21 vs North Macedonia U21?
We expect about 3.5 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 68% likely and both teams score 51% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Italy U21 vs North Macedonia U21?
Our predicted score is Italy U21 2–1 North Macedonia U21, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 3.5 goals in total.
When is Italy U21 vs North Macedonia U21?
Italy U21 vs North Macedonia U21 (UEFA U21 Championship Qualification) kicks off on Thursday 26 March 2026 at 18:15 (West Africa Time) at Stadio Carlo Castellani.
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
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