Value bet: Lazio to win @ 3.80 – our chance 31% vs 26% implied by the price (edge +18%). Bigger price, more risk. Won ✓
Picks by market
ResultAC Milan to win ✗44% · @1.95
Double chanceEither team to win ✓75% · @1.30
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✗54% · @1.85
GoalsOver 1.5 goals ✗77% · fair 1.30
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–2 ✗8% · fair 12.09
Lazio vs AC Milan: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
AC Milan travel to face Lazio on Sunday 15 March in the Serie A, with Stadio Olimpico the venue – the ball rolls at 20:45 WAT. In the table, Lazio are 1st, leading the league, on 29 points after 11 matches; AC Milan are 4th (among the top four) with 24.
Current form
Lazio, last 3: WDL Their latest outing: 2–1 win over Sassuolo, at home. Goals for and against: 1.3 scored, 1.7 conceded per game.
AC Milan, last 4: WLDW Their latest outing: 2–0 win over Cremonese, away. Goals for and against: 1.3 scored, 0.8 conceded per game.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give Lazio 1.4 xG, AC Milan 1.4 xG – a total near 2.8. Neither a goal-fest nor a stalemate: over 2.5 is 53%, GG 54%.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – Lazio 31%, draw 25%, AC Milan 44%.
GG/NG: GG (54%) at 1.85.
Price worth noting: Lazio to win @3.80 – the bookmaker implies 26%, our ratings say 31%.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was Both teams to score (54%, odds 1.85). Most likely score in line with that pick: Lazio 1–1 AC Milan. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
Lazio31%fair 3.22 · @3.80
Draw25%fair 3.96 · @3.25
AC Milan44%fair 2.29 · @1.95
2.82Expected goals
1.42Lazio xG
1.39AC Milan xG
54%Both score
53%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
1–112%
1–09%
2–18%
0–18%
1–28%
2–06%
From our goals model: Lazio 1.4 – 1.4 AC Milan expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
All markets: our price vs the bookmaker
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
AC Milan to win✗
44%
2.29
1.95
Double chance
Either team to win✓
75%
1.34
1.30
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✗
54%
1.84
1.85
Draw no bet
AC Milan (draw no bet)✗
59%
1.71
–
Asian handicap
AC Milan +0.5 (Asian handicap)✗
62%
1.61
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✗
77%
1.30
–
Over/under 2.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals✗
53%
1.87
–
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
69%
1.45
–
Over/under 4.5 goals
Under 4.5 goals✓
85%
1.18
–
First team to score
Lazio to score first✓
47%
2.11
–
Half-time result
Level at half-time✗
41%
2.43
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Lazio / FT Lazio✓
22%
4.51
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–2✗
8%
12.09
–
Recent results
Lazio – last 3
WDL
9 Mar
vs Sassuolo
2–1
W
4 Mar
vs Atalanta
2–2
D
1 Mar
@ Torino
0–2
L
1.3Scored / game
1.7Conceded / game
67%Both scored
67%Over 2.5
AC Milan – last 4
WLDW
1 Mar
@ Cremonese
2–0
W
22 Feb
vs Parma
0–1
L
18 Feb
vs Como
1–1
D
13 Feb
@ Pisa
2–1
W
1.3Scored / game
0.8Conceded / game
50%Both scored
25%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Lazio and AC Milan.
Our pick is Both teams to score with a 54% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.85.
Who will win Lazio vs AC Milan?
On our numbers Lazio have a 31% chance of winning, the draw 25% and AC Milan 44%.
How many goals will there be in Lazio vs AC Milan?
We expect about 2.8 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 53% likely and both teams score 54% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Lazio vs AC Milan?
Our predicted score is Lazio 1–1 AC Milan, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.8 goals in total.
When is Lazio vs AC Milan?
Lazio vs AC Milan (Serie A) kicks off on Sunday 15 March 2026 at 20:45 (West Africa Time) at Stadio Olimpico.
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
Hellas Verona0
Pisa3