Fiorentina v Inter Prediction & Expected Goals (22 Mar) – Odds, Stats, Pick

Picks by market

ResultInter to win57% · @1.63

Double chanceInter or draw79% · @1.17

Both teams scoreBoth teams to score59% · @1.75

GoalsOver 1.5 goals79% · @1.22

Correct scoreCorrect score 1–210% · fair 10.14

Fiorentina vs Inter: Betarazi preview and prediction

The fixture

Inter travel to face Fiorentina on Sunday 22 March in the Serie A, with Stadio Artemio Franchi the venue – the ball rolls at 20:45 WAT. In the table, Fiorentina are 15th, lower half, on 9 points after 11 matches; Inter are 2nd (among the top four) with 28. There are 19 points between them, and the seasons have gone in opposite directions.

Current form

Fiorentina, last 5: WWWDL Their latest outing: 2–1 win over Raków Częstochowa, away. In their own stadium the record reads 1 won, 1 lost from 3. Goals for and against: 1.3 scored, 1.5 conceded per game.

Inter, last 3: DLL Their latest outing: 0–0 draw with Como, away. Scoring is the worry: just 0.7 goals a game.

Momentum favours Fiorentina, collecting 1.7 points per game to 0.3 for Inter.

Where the goals come from

Betarazi's ratings give Fiorentina 1.1 xG, Inter 1.9 xG – a total near 3.1. That is an open game on paper: 56% for three or more goals, 59% for GG. Both teams' recent matches have tended to go over 2.5.

Markets worth a look

1X2 according to our numbers – Fiorentina 21%, draw 21%, Inter 57%.
Lower-risk option: Inter or draw (79%) at 1.17.
GG/NG: GG (59%) at 1.75.

Our call before kick-off

Our pre-match call was Over 1.5 goals (79%, odds 1.22). Most likely score in line with that pick: Fiorentina 1–1 Inter. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.

Result chances

Fiorentina21%fair 4.73 · @4.90

Draw21%fair 4.67 · @3.95

Inter57%fair 1.74 · @1.63

3.06Expected goals

1.13Fiorentina xG

1.93Inter xG

59%Both score

56%Over 2.5

Score grid: top six

1–110%

1–210%

0–19%

0–29%

1–36%

2–16%

From our goals model: Fiorentina 1.1 – 1.9 Inter expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.

All markets: our price vs the bookmaker

Market	Most likely	Chance	Fair odds	Bookmaker
Match result	Inter to win	57%	1.74	1.63
Double chance	Inter or draw	79%	1.27	1.17
Both teams to score	Both teams to score	59%	1.69	1.75
Draw no bet	Inter (draw no bet)	73%	1.37	–
Asian handicap	Fiorentina +1.5 (Asian handicap)	67%	1.49	–
Over/under 1.5 goals	Over 1.5 goals	79%	1.27	1.22
Over/under 2.5 goals	Over 2.5 goals	56%	1.77	1.75
Over/under 3.5 goals	Under 3.5 goals	65%	1.53	1.40
Over/under 4.5 goals	Under 4.5 goals	81%	1.23	1.15
First team to score	Inter to score first	60%	1.67	–
Half-time result	Inter ahead at half-time	41%	2.41	–
Half-time / full-time	HT Inter / FT Inter	35%	2.85	–
Correct score	Correct score 1–2	10%	10.14	–

Fiorentina – last 6

WWWDLL

19 Mar	@ Raków Częstochowa	2–1	W
16 Mar	@ Cremonese	4–1	W
12 Mar	vs Raków Częstochowa	2–1	W
8 Mar	vs Parma	0–0	D
2 Mar	@ Udinese	0–3	L
26 Feb	vs Jagiellonia	0–3	L

1.3Scored / game

1.5Conceded / game

50%Both scored

83%Over 2.5

Inter – last 3

DLL

3 Mar	@ Como	0–0	D
24 Feb	vs BodoGlimt	1–2	L
18 Feb	@ BodoGlimt	1–3	L

0.7Scored / game

1.7Conceded / game

67%Both scored

67%Over 2.5

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Lazio	11	9	2	0	+16	29
2	Inter	11	9	1	1	+15	28
3	AS Roma	11	8	3	0	+21	27
4	AC Milan	11	7	3	1	+10	24
5	Como	11	7	2	2	+8	23
6	Frosinone	11	6	2	3	+9	20
7	Juventus	11	5	3	3	+3	18
8	Bologna	11	5	2	4	+2	17
9	Cagliari	11	5	1	5	-5	16
10	Napoli	11	4	3	4	+4	15
11	Torino	11	4	2	5	-2	14
12	Atalanta	11	4	2	5	-3	14
13	Genoa	11	4	1	6	-5	13
14	Lecce	11	3	1	7	-10	10
15	Fiorentina	11	2	3	6	-8	9
16	Parma	11	2	2	7	-8	8
17	Sassuolo	11	2	2	7	-13	8
18	Monza	11	2	1	8	-8	7
19	Venezia	11	2	0	9	-13	6
20	Udinese	11	1	2	8	-13	5

Team

Pts

+16

+15

+21

+10

-5

-2

-3

-5

-10

-8

-8

-13

-8

-13

-13

Frequently asked questions

What is the prediction for Fiorentina vs Inter?

Our pick is Over 1.5 goals with a 79% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.22.

Who will win Fiorentina vs Inter?

On our numbers Fiorentina have a 21% chance of winning, the draw 21% and Inter 57%.

How many goals will there be in Fiorentina vs Inter?

We expect about 3.1 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 56% likely and both teams score 59% of the time on our projection.

What is the predicted score for Fiorentina vs Inter?

Our predicted score is Fiorentina 1–1 Inter, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 3.1 goals in total.

When is Fiorentina vs Inter?

Fiorentina vs Inter (Serie A) kicks off on Sunday 22 March 2026 at 20:45 (West Africa Time) at Stadio Artemio Franchi.

Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.

Fiorentina v Inter: numbers & prediction