AS Roma 71%Draw 19%Lecce 10%Expected goals 2.32 – 0.73
75%
Betarazi pick
Over 1.5 goals
Strong pick · fair odds 1.33 · bookmaker 1.36
8/10Rating
1.36Odds
GG
Value bet: Both teams to score @ 2.20 – our chance 54% vs 45% implied by the price (edge +20%). Bigger price, more risk.
Picks by market
ResultAS Roma to win71% · @1.46
Double chanceAS Roma or draw90% · @1.08
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score54% · @2.20
GoalsOver 1.5 goals75% · @1.36
Correct scoreCorrect score 2–19% · fair 10.74
AS Roma vs Lecce: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
18:00 WAT, Sunday 22 March: AS Roma v Lecce in the Serie A, played at Stadio Olimpico. In the table, AS Roma are 3rd, among the top four, on 27 points after 11 matches; Lecce are 14th (lower half) with 10. There are 17 points between them, and the seasons have gone in opposite directions.
Current form
AS Roma, last 5: DLDLW Their latest outing: 3–3 draw with Bologna, at home. Goals for and against: 1.8 scored, 1.7 conceded per game.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give AS Roma 2.3 xG, Lecce 0.7 xG – a total near 3.1. That is an open game on paper: 52% for three or more goals, 54% for GG. Both teams' recent matches have tended to go over 2.5.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – AS Roma 71%, draw 19%, Lecce 10%.
GG/NG: GG (54%) at 2.20.
Price worth noting: Both teams to score @2.20 – the bookmaker implies 45%, our ratings say 54%.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was Over 1.5 goals (75%, odds 1.36 – longer than our fair 1.33, so there is value too). Most likely score in line with that pick: AS Roma 2–0 Lecce. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
AS Roma71%fair 1.40 · @1.46
Draw19%fair 5.29 · @3.95
Lecce10%fair 10.20 · @7.50
3.06Expected goals
2.32AS Roma xG
0.73Lecce xG
54%Both score
52%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
2–013%
1–011%
3–010%
2–19%
1–18%
3–17%
From our goals model: AS Roma 2.3 – 0.7 Lecce expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
All markets: our price vs the bookmaker
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
AS Roma to win
71%
1.40
1.46
Double chance
AS Roma or draw
90%
1.11
1.08
Both teams to score
Both teams to score
54%
1.84
2.20 ▲
Draw no bet
AS Roma (draw no bet)
88%
1.14
–
Asian handicap
AS Roma -1 (Asian handicap)
65%
1.54
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals
75%
1.33
1.36
Over/under 2.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
52%
1.92
2.10 ▲
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals
69%
1.44
1.25
Over/under 4.5 goals
Under 4.5 goals
84%
1.19
1.08
First team to score
AS Roma to score first
72%
1.38
–
Half-time result
AS Roma ahead at half-time
53%
1.89
–
Half-time / full-time
HT AS Roma / FT AS Roma
49%
2.04
–
Correct score
Correct score 2–1
9%
10.74
–
Recent results
AS Roma – last 6
DLDLWD
19 Mar
vs Bologna
3–3
D
15 Mar
@ Como
1–2
L
12 Mar
@ Bologna
1–1
D
8 Mar
@ Genoa
1–2
L
22 Feb
vs Cremonese
3–0
W
15 Feb
@ Napoli
2–2
D
1.8Scored / game
1.7Conceded / game
83%Both scored
83%Over 2.5
Lecce – last 2
WW
8 Mar
vs Cremonese
2–1
W
16 Feb
@ Cagliari
2–0
W
2.0Scored / game
0.5Conceded / game
50%Both scored
50%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between AS Roma and Lecce.
Our pick is Over 1.5 goals with a 75% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.36.
Who will win AS Roma vs Lecce?
On our numbers AS Roma have a 71% chance of winning, the draw 19% and Lecce 10%.
How many goals will there be in AS Roma vs Lecce?
We expect about 3.1 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 52% likely and both teams score 54% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for AS Roma vs Lecce?
Our predicted score is AS Roma 2–0 Lecce, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 3.1 goals in total.
When is AS Roma vs Lecce?
AS Roma vs Lecce (Serie A) kicks off on Sunday 22 March 2026 at 18:00 (West Africa Time) at Stadio Olimpico.
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
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