Very strong pick · fair odds 1.23 · bookmaker 1.20
9/10Rating
1.20Odds
2
Value bet: Brentford to win @ 1.78 – our chance 60% vs 56% implied by the price (edge +7%). Bigger price, more risk.
Picks by market
ResultBrentford to win60% · @1.78
Double chanceBrentford or draw82% · @1.20
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score58% · @1.75
GoalsOver 1.5 goals78% · @1.28
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–210% · fair 10.09
Burnley vs Brentford: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
16:00 WAT, Saturday 28 February: Burnley v Brentford in the Premier League, played at Turf Moor.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give Burnley 1.0 xG, Brentford 2.1 xG – a total near 3.2. Both nets should be busy – over 2.5 sits at 56% and GG at 58%. Both teams' recent matches have tended to stay under 2.5.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – Burnley 18%, draw 22%, Brentford 60%.
Lower-risk option: Brentford or draw (82%) at 1.20.
GG/NG: GG (58%) at 1.75.
Price worth noting: Brentford to win @1.78 – the bookmaker implies 56%, our ratings say 60%.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was Brentford or draw (82%, odds 1.20). Most likely score in line with that pick: Burnley 1–2 Brentford. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
Burnley18%fair 5.43 · @4.10
Draw22%fair 4.62 · @3.80
Brentford60%fair 1.67 · @1.78
3.16Expected goals
1.03Burnley xG
2.13Brentford xG
58%Both score
56%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
1–210%
0–210%
1–19%
0–19%
1–37%
0–37%
From our goals model: Burnley 1.0 – 2.1 Brentford expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
All markets: our price vs the bookmaker
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Brentford to win
60%
1.67
1.78 ▲
Double chance
Brentford or draw
82%
1.23
1.20
Both teams to score
Both teams to score
58%
1.73
1.75
Draw no bet
Brentford (draw no bet)
76%
1.31
–
Asian handicap
Brentford -0.5 (Asian handicap)
63%
1.60
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals
78%
1.28
1.28
Over/under 2.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
56%
1.77
1.83
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals
65%
1.53
1.35
Over/under 4.5 goals
Under 4.5 goals
81%
1.23
1.12
First team to score
Brentford to score first
65%
1.55
–
Half-time result
Brentford ahead at half-time
46%
2.17
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Brentford / FT Brentford
40%
2.47
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–2
10%
10.09
–
Recent results
Burnley – last 1
D
21 Feb
@ Chelsea
1–1
D
1.0Scored / game
1.0Conceded / game
100%Both scored
0%Over 2.5
Brentford – last 2
LW
21 Feb
vs Brighton
0–2
L
16 Feb
@ Macclesfield
1–0
W
0.5Scored / game
1.0Conceded / game
0%Both scored
0%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Burnley and Brentford.
Our pick is Brentford or draw with a 82% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.20.
Who will win Burnley vs Brentford?
On our numbers Burnley have a 18% chance of winning, the draw 22% and Brentford 60%.
How many goals will there be in Burnley vs Brentford?
We expect about 3.2 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 56% likely and both teams score 58% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Burnley vs Brentford?
Our predicted score is Burnley 1–2 Brentford, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 3.2 goals in total.
When is Burnley vs Brentford?
Burnley vs Brentford (Premier League) kicks off on Saturday 28 February 2026 at 16:00 (West Africa Time) at Turf Moor.
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
West Ham