Aston Villa 41%Draw 23%Chelsea 36%Expected goals 1.77 – 1.52
81%
Betarazi pick
Over 1.5 goals
Very strong pick · fair odds 1.24 · bookmaker 1.22 · Won ✓
9/10Rating
1.22Odds
1
Value bet: Aston Villa to win @ 2.62 – our chance 41% vs 38% implied by the price (edge +8%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Picks by market
ResultAston Villa to win ✗41% · @2.62
Double chanceEither team to win ✓77% · @1.22
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✓62% · @1.55
GoalsOver 1.5 goals ✓81% · @1.22
Correct scoreCorrect score 2–1 ✗9% · fair 11.26
Aston Villa vs Chelsea: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
20:30 WAT, Wednesday 4 March: Aston Villa v Chelsea in the Premier League, played at Villa Park. In the table, Aston Villa are 10th, upper half, on 13 points after 10 matches; Chelsea are 5th (upper half) with 16. Only 3 points split them, so the winner climbs above the loser.
Current form
Chelsea, last 3: LDW Their latest outing: 1–2 defeat to Arsenal, away. The attack is flying at 2.0 goals per game.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give Aston Villa 1.8 xG, Chelsea 1.5 xG – a total near 3.3. That is an open game on paper: 60% for three or more goals, 62% for GG.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – Aston Villa 41%, draw 23%, Chelsea 36%.
GG/NG: GG (62%) at 1.55.
Price worth noting: Aston Villa to win @2.62 – the bookmaker implies 38%, our ratings say 41%.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was Over 1.5 goals (81%, odds 1.22). Most likely score in line with that pick: Aston Villa 1–1 Chelsea. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
Aston Villa41%fair 2.42 · @2.62
Draw23%fair 4.44 · @3.55
Chelsea36%fair 2.76 · @2.46
3.29Expected goals
1.77Aston Villa xG
1.52Chelsea xG
62%Both score
60%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
1–110%
2–19%
1–28%
2–27%
1–07%
2–06%
From our goals model: Aston Villa 1.8 – 1.5 Chelsea expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
All markets: our price vs the bookmaker
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Aston Villa to win✗
41%
2.42
2.62 ▲
Double chance
Either team to win✓
77%
1.29
1.22
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✓
62%
1.61
1.55
Draw no bet
Aston Villa (draw no bet)✗
53%
1.88
–
Asian handicap
Chelsea +1 (Asian handicap)✓
71%
1.42
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
81%
1.24
1.22
Over/under 2.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals✓
60%
1.67
1.67
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✗
62%
1.62
1.45
Over/under 4.5 goals
Under 4.5 goals✗
78%
1.28
1.18
First team to score
Aston Villa to score first
52%
1.93
–
Half-time result
Level at half-time✗
37%
2.67
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Aston Villa / FT Aston Villa✗
27%
3.76
–
Correct score
Correct score 2–1✗
9%
11.26
–
Recent results
Aston Villa – last 2
LD
27 Feb
@ Wolves
0–2
L
21 Feb
vs Leeds
1–1
D
0.5Scored / game
1.5Conceded / game
50%Both scored
0%Over 2.5
Chelsea – last 3
LDW
1 Mar
@ Arsenal
1–2
L
21 Feb
vs Burnley
1–1
D
13 Feb
@ Hull City
4–0
W
2.0Scored / game
1.0Conceded / game
67%Both scored
67%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Aston Villa and Chelsea.
What is the prediction for Aston Villa vs Chelsea?
Our pick is Over 1.5 goals with a 81% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.22.
Who will win Aston Villa vs Chelsea?
On our numbers Aston Villa have a 41% chance of winning, the draw 23% and Chelsea 36%.
How many goals will there be in Aston Villa vs Chelsea?
We expect about 3.3 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 60% likely and both teams score 62% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Aston Villa vs Chelsea?
Our predicted score is Aston Villa 1–1 Chelsea, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 3.3 goals in total.
When is Aston Villa vs Chelsea?
Aston Villa vs Chelsea (Premier League) kicks off on Wednesday 4 March 2026 at 20:30 (West Africa Time) at Villa Park.
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
West Ham1