Brighton vs Arsenal: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
Arsenal travel to face Brighton on Wednesday 4 March in the Premier League, with Amex Stadium the venue – the ball rolls at 20:30 WAT. In the table, Brighton are 2nd, among the top four, on 22 points after 10 matches; Arsenal are 1st (leading the league) with 27.
Current form
Arsenal, last 4: WWDW Their latest outing: 2–1 win over Chelsea, at home. Scoring is no problem – 3.0 a game lately.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give Brighton 1.2 xG, Arsenal 1.3 xG – a total near 2.4. Neither a goal-fest nor a stalemate: over 2.5 is 46%, GG 51%. Both teams' recent matches have tended to go over 2.5.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – Brighton 26%, draw 27%, Arsenal 48%.
Lower-risk option: Arsenal or draw (74%) at 1.17.
GG/NG: GG (51%) at 1.90.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was Under 3.5 goals (75%, odds 1.30). Most likely score in line with that pick: Brighton 1–1 Arsenal. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
Brighton26%fair 3.88 · @5.00
Draw27%fair 3.76 · @3.80
Arsenal48%fair 2.10 · @1.65
2.43Expected goals
1.17Brighton xG
1.27Arsenal xG
51%Both score
46%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
1–113%
0–111%
1–010%
0–09%
1–28%
2–18%
From our goals model: Brighton 1.2 – 1.3 Arsenal expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
All markets: our price vs the bookmaker
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Arsenal to win✓
48%
2.10
1.65
Double chance
Arsenal or draw✓
74%
1.35
1.17
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✗
51%
1.95
1.90
Draw no bet
Arsenal (draw no bet)✓
65%
1.54
–
Asian handicap
Brighton +0.5 (Asian handicap)✗
61%
1.63
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✗
71%
1.40
1.30
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✓
54%
1.87
1.85
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
75%
1.34
1.30
Over/under 4.5 goals
Under 4.5 goals✓
88%
1.14
1.10
First team to score
Arsenal to score first✓
48%
2.10
–
Half-time result
Level at half-time✗
45%
2.23
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Arsenal / FT Arsenal✓
22%
4.49
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–2✗
8%
12.17
–
Recent results
Brighton – last 2
WW
1 Mar
vs Nottingham Forest
2–1
W
21 Feb
@ Brentford
2–0
W
2.0Scored / game
0.5Conceded / game
50%Both scored
50%Over 2.5
Arsenal – last 4
WWDW
1 Mar
vs Chelsea
2–1
W
22 Feb
@ Tottenham
4–1
W
18 Feb
@ Wolves
2–2
D
15 Feb
vs Wigan
4–0
W
3.0Scored / game
1.0Conceded / game
75%Both scored
100%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Brighton and Arsenal.
Our pick is Under 3.5 goals with a 75% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.30.
Who will win Brighton vs Arsenal?
On our numbers Brighton have a 26% chance of winning, the draw 27% and Arsenal 48%.
How many goals will there be in Brighton vs Arsenal?
We expect about 2.4 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 46% likely and both teams score 51% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Brighton vs Arsenal?
Our predicted score is Brighton 1–1 Arsenal, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.4 goals in total.
When is Brighton vs Arsenal?
Brighton vs Arsenal (Premier League) kicks off on Wednesday 4 March 2026 at 20:30 (West Africa Time) at Amex Stadium.
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
West Ham1