Leeds vs Sunderland: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
20:30 WAT, Tuesday 3 March: Leeds v Sunderland in the Premier League, played at Elland Road. In the table, Leeds are 9th, upper half, on 14 points after 10 matches; Sunderland are 19th (in the drop zone) with 8.
Current form
Sunderland, last 3: DLW Their latest outing: 1–1 draw with Bournemouth, away. Goals for and against: 1.0 scored, 1.3 conceded per game.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give Leeds 1.5 xG, Sunderland 0.9 xG – a total near 2.4. Neither a goal-fest nor a stalemate: over 2.5 is 44%, GG 51%. Both teams' recent matches have tended to stay under 2.5.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – Leeds 52%, draw 26%, Sunderland 22%.
Lower-risk option: Leeds or draw (78%) at 1.22.
GG/NG: GG (51%) at 1.90.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was Under 3.5 goals (76%, odds 1.25). Most likely score in line with that pick: Leeds 1–0 Sunderland. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
Leeds52%fair 1.93 · @1.90
Draw26%fair 3.87 · @3.35
Sunderland22%fair 4.46 · @4.00
2.43Expected goals
1.51Leeds xG
0.92Sunderland xG
51%Both score
44%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
1–013%
1–112%
2–010%
2–19%
0–09%
0–18%
From our goals model: Leeds 1.5 – 0.9 Sunderland expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
All markets: our price vs the bookmaker
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Leeds to win✗
52%
1.93
1.90
Double chance
Leeds or draw✗
78%
1.29
1.22
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✗
51%
1.95
1.90
Draw no bet
Leeds (draw no bet)✗
70%
1.43
–
Asian handicap
Sunderland +1 (Asian handicap)✓
65%
1.53
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✗
70%
1.44
1.36
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✓
56%
1.80
1.73
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
76%
1.31
1.25
Over/under 4.5 goals
Under 4.5 goals✓
89%
1.13
1.08
First team to score
Leeds to score first✗
57%
1.76
–
Half-time result
Level at half-time✓
44%
2.26
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Leeds / FT Leeds✗
31%
3.27
–
Correct score
Correct score 2–1✗
9%
10.83
–
Recent results
Leeds – last 1
D
21 Feb
@ Aston Villa
1–1
D
1.0Scored / game
1.0Conceded / game
100%Both scored
0%Over 2.5
Sunderland – last 3
DLW
28 Feb
@ Bournemouth
1–1
D
22 Feb
vs Fulham
1–3
L
15 Feb
@ Oxford United
1–0
W
1.0Scored / game
1.3Conceded / game
67%Both scored
33%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Leeds and Sunderland.
Our pick is Under 3.5 goals with a 76% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.25.
Who will win Leeds vs Sunderland?
On our numbers Leeds have a 52% chance of winning, the draw 26% and Sunderland 22%.
How many goals will there be in Leeds vs Sunderland?
We expect about 2.4 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 44% likely and both teams score 51% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Leeds vs Sunderland?
Our predicted score is Leeds 1–0 Sunderland, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.4 goals in total.
When is Leeds vs Sunderland?
Leeds vs Sunderland (Premier League) kicks off on Tuesday 3 March 2026 at 20:30 (West Africa Time) at Elland Road.
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
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