Ayr Utd vs ST Johnstone: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
19:45 WAT, Friday 1 May: Ayr Utd v ST Johnstone in the Championship, played at Somerset Park.
Current form
Ayr Utd, last 5: LLLDL Their latest outing: 0–3 defeat to Dunfermline, at home. In their own stadium the record reads 0 won, 3 lost from 4. Scoring is the worry: just 0.5 goals a game.
ST Johnstone, last 5: WWDDD Their latest outing: 2–0 win over Raith Rovers, at home. Away from home the record reads 1 won, 0 lost from 4. Goals for and against: 1.0 scored, 0.3 conceded per game. Defensively they have kept 4 clean sheets in that run.
Momentum favours ST Johnstone, collecting 1.7 points per game to 0.3 for Ayr Utd.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give Ayr Utd 0.9 xG, ST Johnstone 1.5 xG – a total near 2.5. Neither a goal-fest nor a stalemate: over 2.5 is 48%, GG 58%.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – Ayr Utd 21%, draw 26%, ST Johnstone 53%.
Lower-risk option: ST Johnstone or draw (79%) at 1.18.
GG/NG: GG (58%) at 1.70.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was Under 3.5 goals (72%, odds 1.36). Most likely score in line with that pick: Ayr Utd 0–1 ST Johnstone. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
Ayr Utd21%fair 4.67 · @4.40
Draw26%fair 3.91 · @3.60
ST Johnstone53%fair 1.89 · @1.71
2.48Expected goals
0.93Ayr Utd xG
1.55ST Johnstone xG
58%Both score
48%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
0–113%
1–112%
0–210%
1–29%
0–08%
1–08%
From our goals model: Ayr Utd 0.9 – 1.5 ST Johnstone expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Team ratings (Betarazi)
Ayr Utd
ST Johnstone
Attack vs Championship average
-8%
+2%
Goals conceded vs average
+27%
-25%
Our expected goals here
0.88
1.37
Our own ratings from every Championship result in the last 14 months, recent games counting more. Attack +20% = scores 20% more than an average side; goals conceded −20% = a tighter defence than average. They feed into every chance on this page.
All markets: our price vs the bookmaker
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
ST Johnstone to win✓
53%
1.89
1.71
Double chance
ST Johnstone or draw✓
79%
1.27
1.18
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✗
58%
1.73
1.70
Draw no bet
ST Johnstone (draw no bet)✓
71%
1.40
–
Asian handicap
Ayr Utd +1 (Asian handicap)
64%
1.56
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✗
73%
1.38
1.25
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✓
52%
1.94
1.95
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
72%
1.38
1.36
Over/under 4.5 goals
Under 4.5 goals✓
89%
1.12
–
First team to score
ST Johnstone to score first✓
57%
1.74
–
Half-time result
Level at half-time✗
44%
2.29
–
Half-time / full-time
HT ST Johnstone / FT ST Johnstone✓
31%
3.20
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–2✗
9%
10.69
–
Recent results
Ayr Utd – last 6
LLLDLD
7 Apr
vs Dunfermline
0–3
L
27 Mar
@ Raith Rovers
0–3
L
10 Mar
vs Queen's Park
1–2
L
3 Mar
@ Arbroath
1–1
D
24 Feb
vs Inverness CT
1–2
L
21 Feb
vs Ross County
0–0
D
0.5Scored / game
1.8Conceded / game
50%Both scored
67%Over 2.5
ST Johnstone – last 6
WWDDDD
24 Apr
vs Raith Rovers
2–0
W
21 Apr
@ Dunfermline
2–0
W
28 Mar
vs Queen's Park
1–1
D
20 Mar
@ Partick
0–0
D
24 Feb
@ Queen's Park
1–1
D
20 Feb
@ Raith Rovers
0–0
D
1.0Scored / game
0.3Conceded / game
33%Both scored
0%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Ayr Utd and ST Johnstone.
What is the prediction for Ayr Utd vs ST Johnstone?
Our pick is Under 3.5 goals with a 72% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.36.
Who will win Ayr Utd vs ST Johnstone?
On our numbers Ayr Utd have a 21% chance of winning, the draw 26% and ST Johnstone 53%.
How many goals will there be in Ayr Utd vs ST Johnstone?
We expect about 2.5 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 48% likely and both teams score 58% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Ayr Utd vs ST Johnstone?
Our predicted score is Ayr Utd 0–1 ST Johnstone, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.5 goals in total.
When is Ayr Utd vs ST Johnstone?
Ayr Utd vs ST Johnstone (Championship) kicks off on Friday 1 May 2026 at 19:45 (West Africa Time) at Somerset Park.
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
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