Value bet: Dunfermline to win @ 2.18 – our chance 50% vs 46% implied by the price (edge +10%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Picks by market
ResultDunfermline to win ✗50% · @2.18
Double chanceDunfermline or draw ✓76% · @1.30
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✗53% · @1.83
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✓78% · @1.22
Correct scoreCorrect score 2–1 ✗9% · fair 10.92
Dunfermline vs Arbroath: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
Arbroath travel to face Dunfermline on Friday 1 May in the Championship, with East End Park the venue – the ball rolls at 19:45 WAT. In the table, Dunfermline are 3rd, among the top four, on 25 points after 14 matches; Arbroath are 8th (in the drop zone) with 14.
Current form
Dunfermline, last 5: LDWWD Their latest outing: 0–2 defeat to ST Johnstone, at home. In their own stadium the record reads 1 won, 1 lost from 3. 2.0 goals per outing makes them dangerous.
Arbroath, last 3: LDW Their latest outing: 1–2 defeat to Morton, away. Scoring is no problem – 2.0 a game lately.
Head to head
When they last met (21 Feb 2026) it ended Arbroath 4–2 Dunfermline.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give Dunfermline 1.6 xG, Arbroath 0.8 xG – a total near 2.3. Neither a goal-fest nor a stalemate: over 2.5 is 43%, GG 53%. Both teams' recent matches have tended to go over 2.5.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – Dunfermline 50%, draw 26%, Arbroath 24%.
Lower-risk option: Dunfermline or draw (76%) at 1.30.
GG/NG: GG (53%) at 1.83.
Price worth noting: Dunfermline to win @2.18 – the bookmaker implies 46%, our ratings say 50%.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was Dunfermline or draw (76%, odds 1.30). Most likely score in line with that pick: Dunfermline 1–0 Arbroath. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
Dunfermline50%fair 1.98 · @2.18
Draw26%fair 3.87 · @3.10
Arbroath24%fair 4.21 · @3.20
2.35Expected goals
1.58Dunfermline xG
0.77Arbroath xG
53%Both score
43%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
1–015%
2–012%
1–112%
0–010%
2–19%
0–17%
From our goals model: Dunfermline 1.6 – 0.8 Arbroath expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Team ratings (Betarazi)
Dunfermline
Arbroath
Attack vs Championship average
+0%
-18%
Goals conceded vs average
-39%
+28%
Our expected goals here
1.63
0.53
Our own ratings from every Championship result in the last 14 months, recent games counting more. Attack +20% = scores 20% more than an average side; goals conceded −20% = a tighter defence than average. They feed into every chance on this page.
What is the prediction for Dunfermline vs Arbroath?
Our pick is Dunfermline or draw with a 76% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.30.
Who will win Dunfermline vs Arbroath?
On our numbers Dunfermline have a 50% chance of winning, the draw 26% and Arbroath 24%.
How many goals will there be in Dunfermline vs Arbroath?
We expect about 2.3 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 43% likely and both teams score 53% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Dunfermline vs Arbroath?
Our predicted score is Dunfermline 1–0 Arbroath, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.3 goals in total.
When is Dunfermline vs Arbroath?
Dunfermline vs Arbroath (Championship) kicks off on Friday 1 May 2026 at 19:45 (West Africa Time) at East End Park.
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
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