Swansea v Stoke City Prediction & Expected Goals (7 Mar) – Odds, Stats, Pick

Picks by market

ResultSwansea to win44% · @1.96

Double chanceEither team to win74% · @1.28

Both teams scoreBoth teams to score51% · @1.90

GoalsUnder 3.5 goals76% · @1.25

Correct scoreCorrect score 2–18% · fair 11.82

Swansea vs Stoke City: Betarazi preview and prediction

The fixture

Stoke City travel to face Swansea on Saturday 7 March in the Championship, with Swansea.com Stadium the venue – the ball rolls at 16:00 WAT. In the table, Swansea are 6th, upper half, on 26 points after 15 matches; Stoke City are 3rd (among the top four) with 29. Only 3 points split them, so the winner climbs above the loser.

Current form

Stoke City, last 3: WDL Their latest outing: 2–1 win over Oxford United, at home. Goals for and against: 1.7 scored, 1.7 conceded per game.

Where the goals come from

Betarazi's ratings give Swansea 1.3 xG, Stoke City 1.1 xG – a total near 2.4. Neither a goal-fest nor a stalemate: over 2.5 is 44%, GG 51%.

Markets worth a look

1X2 according to our numbers – Swansea 44%, draw 26%, Stoke City 30%.
GG/NG: GG (51%) at 1.90.
Price worth noting: Stoke City to win @3.90 – the bookmaker implies 26%, our ratings say 30%.

Our call before kick-off

Our pre-match call was Under 3.5 goals (76%, odds 1.25). Most likely score in line with that pick: Swansea 1–1 Stoke City. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.

Result chances

Swansea44%fair 2.28 · @1.96

Draw26%fair 3.80 · @3.30

Stoke City30%fair 3.34 · @3.90

2.42Expected goals

1.31Swansea xG

1.11Stoke City xG

51%Both score

44%Over 2.5

Score grid: top six

1–113%

1–012%

0–110%

0–09%

2–18%

2–08%

From our goals model: Swansea 1.3 – 1.1 Stoke City expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.

All markets: our price vs the bookmaker

Market	Most likely	Chance	Fair odds	Bookmaker
Match result	Swansea to win	44%	2.28	1.96
Double chance	Either team to win	74%	1.36	1.28
Both teams to score	Both teams to score	51%	1.97	1.90
Draw no bet	Swansea (draw no bet)	59%	1.68	–
Asian handicap	Stoke City +1 (Asian handicap)	76%	1.32	–
Over/under 1.5 goals	Over 1.5 goals	69%	1.45	1.38
Over/under 2.5 goals	Under 2.5 goals	56%	1.79	1.70
Over/under 3.5 goals	Under 3.5 goals	76%	1.31	1.25
Over/under 4.5 goals	Under 4.5 goals	89%	1.13	1.08
First team to score	Swansea to score first	49%	2.03	–
Half-time result	Level at half-time	45%	2.23	–
Half-time / full-time	HT Swansea / FT Swansea	24%	4.21	–
Correct score	Correct score 2–1	8%	11.82	–

Swansea – last 2

24 Feb	vs Preston	1–1	D
21 Feb	vs Bristol City	1–0	W

1.0Scored / game

0.5Conceded / game

50%Both scored

0%Over 2.5

Stoke City – last 3

WDL

25 Feb	vs Oxford United	2–1	W
21 Feb	vs Leicester	2–2	D
15 Feb	vs Fulham	1–2	L

1.7Scored / game

1.7Conceded / game

100%Both scored

100%Over 2.5

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Birmingham	15	8	5	2	+14	29
2	Middlesbrough	15	8	5	2	+11	29
3	Stoke City	15	9	2	4	+6	29
4	Wolves	15	8	4	3	+8	28
5	West Brom	15	8	4	3	+8	28
6	Swansea	15	8	2	5	+4	26
7	Southampton	15	8	4	3	+14	24
8	QPR	15	6	6	3	+6	24
9	West Ham	15	6	5	4	+14	23
10	Sheffield Utd	15	6	4	5	+2	22
11	Portsmouth	15	6	4	5	+2	22
12	Norwich	15	7	0	8	+8	21
13	Blackburn	15	6	3	6	-1	21
14	Cardiff	15	4	6	5	0	18
15	Wrexham	15	4	6	5	-2	18
16	Millwall	15	5	3	7	-4	18
17	Bristol City	15	5	3	7	-8	18
18	Bolton	15	5	2	8	-9	17
19	Charlton	15	4	5	6	-10	17
20	Watford	15	4	3	8	-10	15
21	Lincoln	15	4	3	8	-11	15
22	Burnley	15	1	7	7	-9	10
23	Derby	15	2	4	9	-16	10
24	Preston	15	2	2	11	-17	8

Team

Pts

+14

+11

+14

+14

-1

-2

-4

-8

-9

-10

-10

-11

-9

-16

-17

Frequently asked questions

What is the prediction for Swansea vs Stoke City?

Our pick is Under 3.5 goals with a 76% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.25.

Who will win Swansea vs Stoke City?

On our numbers Swansea have a 44% chance of winning, the draw 26% and Stoke City 30%.

How many goals will there be in Swansea vs Stoke City?

We expect about 2.4 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 44% likely and both teams score 51% of the time on our projection.

What is the predicted score for Swansea vs Stoke City?

Our predicted score is Swansea 1–1 Stoke City, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.4 goals in total.

When is Swansea vs Stoke City?

Swansea vs Stoke City (Championship) kicks off on Saturday 7 March 2026 at 16:00 (West Africa Time) at Swansea.com Stadium.

Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.

Swansea v Stoke City: numbers & prediction