Charlton v Birmingham Prediction & Expected Goals (7 Mar) – Odds, Stats, Pick

Picks by market

ResultBirmingham to win49% · @2.14

Double chanceEither team to win75% · @1.28

Both teams scoreBoth teams to score50% · @1.85

GoalsUnder 3.5 goals76% · @1.25

Correct scoreCorrect score 1–29% · fair 10.68

Charlton vs Birmingham: Betarazi preview and prediction

The fixture

Charlton welcome Birmingham to The Valley for a Championship fixture on Saturday 7 March (16:00 WAT). In the table, Charlton are 19th, lower half, on 17 points after 15 matches; Birmingham are 1st (leading the league) with 29. There are 12 points between them, and the seasons have gone in opposite directions.

Current form

Charlton, last 3: DDL Their latest outing: 1–1 draw with West Brom, away. Goals for and against: 1.0 scored, 1.7 conceded per game.

Birmingham, last 3: LLW Their latest outing: 1–3 defeat to Middlesbrough, at home. Goals for and against: 1.0 scored, 2.3 conceded per game.

Where the goals come from

Betarazi's ratings give Charlton 0.9 xG, Birmingham 1.6 xG – a total near 2.5. Neither a goal-fest nor a stalemate: over 2.5 is 45%, GG 50%. Both teams' recent matches have tended to go over 2.5.

Markets worth a look

1X2 according to our numbers – Charlton 26%, draw 25%, Birmingham 49%.
GG/NG: GG (50%) at 1.85.

Our call before kick-off

Our pre-match call was Under 3.5 goals (76%, odds 1.25). Most likely score in line with that pick: Charlton 0–1 Birmingham. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.

Result chances

Charlton26%fair 3.89 · @3.40

Draw25%fair 3.93 · @3.25

Birmingham49%fair 2.05 · @2.14

2.48Expected goals

0.92Charlton xG

1.56Birmingham xG

50%Both score

45%Over 2.5

Score grid: top six

0–113%

1–112%

0–210%

1–29%

0–08%

1–08%

From our goals model: Charlton 0.9 – 1.6 Birmingham expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.

All markets: our price vs the bookmaker

Market	Most likely	Chance	Fair odds	Bookmaker
Match result	Birmingham to win	49%	2.05	2.14
Double chance	Either team to win	75%	1.34	1.28
Both teams to score	Both teams to score	50%	1.98	1.85
Draw no bet	Birmingham (draw no bet)	66%	1.53	–
Asian handicap	Charlton +1 (Asian handicap)	64%	1.57	–
Over/under 1.5 goals	Over 1.5 goals	70%	1.44	1.38
Over/under 2.5 goals	Under 2.5 goals	55%	1.81	1.70
Over/under 3.5 goals	Under 3.5 goals	76%	1.32	1.25
Over/under 4.5 goals	Under 4.5 goals	89%	1.13	1.07
First team to score	Birmingham to score first	58%	1.74	–
Half-time result	Level at half-time	44%	2.29	–
Half-time / full-time	HT Birmingham / FT Birmingham	31%	3.18	–
Correct score	Correct score 1–2	9%	10.68	–

Charlton – last 3

DDL

24 Feb	@ West Brom	1–1	D
21 Feb	@ Southampton	1–1	D
17 Feb	vs Portsmouth	1–3	L

1.0Scored / game

1.7Conceded / game

100%Both scored

33%Over 2.5

Birmingham – last 3

LLW

2 Mar	vs Middlesbrough	1–3	L
25 Feb	@ Millwall	0–3	L
21 Feb	@ Norwich	2–1	W

1.0Scored / game

2.3Conceded / game

67%Both scored

100%Over 2.5

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Birmingham	15	8	5	2	+14	29
2	Middlesbrough	15	8	5	2	+11	29
3	Stoke City	15	9	2	4	+6	29
4	Wolves	15	8	4	3	+8	28
5	West Brom	15	8	4	3	+8	28
6	Swansea	15	8	2	5	+4	26
7	Southampton	15	8	4	3	+14	24
8	QPR	15	6	6	3	+6	24
9	West Ham	15	6	5	4	+14	23
10	Sheffield Utd	15	6	4	5	+2	22
11	Portsmouth	15	6	4	5	+2	22
12	Norwich	15	7	0	8	+8	21
13	Blackburn	15	6	3	6	-1	21
14	Cardiff	15	4	6	5	0	18
15	Wrexham	15	4	6	5	-2	18
16	Millwall	15	5	3	7	-4	18
17	Bristol City	15	5	3	7	-8	18
18	Bolton	15	5	2	8	-9	17
19	Charlton	15	4	5	6	-10	17
20	Watford	15	4	3	8	-10	15
21	Lincoln	15	4	3	8	-11	15
22	Burnley	15	1	7	7	-9	10
23	Derby	15	2	4	9	-16	10
24	Preston	15	2	2	11	-17	8

Team

Pts

+14

+11

+14

+14

-1

-2

-4

-8

-9

-10

-10

-11

-9

-16

-17

Frequently asked questions

What is the prediction for Charlton vs Birmingham?

Our pick is Under 3.5 goals with a 76% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.25.

Who will win Charlton vs Birmingham?

On our numbers Charlton have a 26% chance of winning, the draw 25% and Birmingham 49%.

How many goals will there be in Charlton vs Birmingham?

We expect about 2.5 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 45% likely and both teams score 50% of the time on our projection.

What is the predicted score for Charlton vs Birmingham?

Our predicted score is Charlton 0–1 Birmingham, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.5 goals in total.

When is Charlton vs Birmingham?

Charlton vs Birmingham (Championship) kicks off on Saturday 7 March 2026 at 16:00 (West Africa Time) at The Valley.

Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.

Charlton v Birmingham: numbers & prediction