Value bet: Both teams to score @ 2.05 – our chance 55% vs 49% implied by the price (edge +14%). Bigger price, more risk.
Picks by market
ResultDerby to win56% · @1.29
Double chanceDerby or draw78% · @1.05
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score55% · @2.05
GoalsOver 1.5 goals76% · @1.22
Correct scoreCorrect score 2–19% · fair 11.11
Derby vs Sheffield Wednesday: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
On Saturday 7 March the Championship brings Derby against Sheffield Wednesday at Pride Park. Kick-off: 16:00 WAT.
Current form
Derby, last 3: WLL Their latest outing: 3–1 win over Blackburn, at home. Goals for and against: 1.7 scored, 2.3 conceded per game.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give Derby 1.5 xG, Sheffield Wednesday 1.2 xG – a total near 2.7. Neither a goal-fest nor a stalemate: over 2.5 is 54%, GG 55%.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – Derby 56%, draw 22%, Sheffield Wednesday 22%.
GG/NG: GG (55%) at 2.05.
Price worth noting: Both teams to score @2.05 – the bookmaker implies 49%, our ratings say 55%.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was Over 1.5 goals (76%, odds 1.22). Most likely score in line with that pick: Derby 1–1 Sheffield Wednesday. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
Derby56%fair 1.80 · @1.29
Draw22%fair 4.45 · @5.00
Sheffield Wednesday22%fair 4.56 · @10.25
2.71Expected goals
1.49Derby xG
1.22Sheffield Wednesday xG
55%Both score
54%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
1–112%
1–010%
2–19%
0–18%
1–27%
2–07%
From our goals model: Derby 1.5 – 1.2 Sheffield Wednesday expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
All markets: our price vs the bookmaker
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Derby to win
56%
1.80
1.29
Double chance
Derby or draw
78%
1.28
1.05
Both teams to score
Both teams to score
55%
1.80
2.05 ▲
Draw no bet
Derby (draw no bet)
72%
1.39
–
Asian handicap
Sheffield Wednesday +1 (Asian handicap)
73%
1.38
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals
76%
1.31
1.22
Over/under 2.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
54%
1.87
1.67
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals
68%
1.47
1.45
Over/under 4.5 goals
Under 4.5 goals
83%
1.20
1.18
First team to score
Derby to score first
51%
1.95
–
Half-time result
Level at half-time
42%
2.38
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Derby / FT Derby
26%
3.90
–
Correct score
Correct score 2–1
9%
11.11
–
Recent results
Derby – last 3
WLL
28 Feb
vs Blackburn
3–1
W
24 Feb
@ Hull City
2–4
L
21 Feb
@ Watford
0–2
L
1.7Scored / game
2.3Conceded / game
67%Both scored
67%Over 2.5
Sheffield Wednesday – last 2
LL
25 Feb
@ Norwich
0–2
L
22 Feb
@ Sheffield Utd
1–2
L
0.5Scored / game
2.0Conceded / game
50%Both scored
50%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Derby and Sheffield Wednesday.
What is the prediction for Derby vs Sheffield Wednesday?
Our pick is Over 1.5 goals with a 76% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.22.
Who will win Derby vs Sheffield Wednesday?
On our numbers Derby have a 56% chance of winning, the draw 22% and Sheffield Wednesday 22%.
How many goals will there be in Derby vs Sheffield Wednesday?
We expect about 2.7 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 54% likely and both teams score 55% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Derby vs Sheffield Wednesday?
Our predicted score is Derby 1–1 Sheffield Wednesday, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.7 goals in total.
When is Derby vs Sheffield Wednesday?
Derby vs Sheffield Wednesday (Championship) kicks off on Saturday 7 March 2026 at 16:00 (West Africa Time) at Pride Park.
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
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