Birmingham vs QPR: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
Birmingham welcome QPR to St. Andrew's @ Knighthead Park for a Championship fixture on Wednesday 11 March (20:45 WAT). In the table, Birmingham are 1st, leading the league, on 29 points after 15 matches; QPR are 8th (upper half) with 24.
Current form
Birmingham, last 3: LLW Their latest outing: 1–3 defeat to Middlesbrough, at home. Goals for and against: 1.0 scored, 2.3 conceded per game.
QPR, last 3: LLW Their latest outing: 0–4 defeat to Middlesbrough, at home. Goals for and against: 1.0 scored, 3.3 conceded per game.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give Birmingham 1.7 xG, QPR 1.0 xG – a total near 2.7. Neither a goal-fest nor a stalemate: over 2.5 is 50%, GG 53%. Both teams' recent matches have tended to go over 2.5.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – Birmingham 56%, draw 25%, QPR 19%.
Lower-risk option: Birmingham or draw (81%) at 1.18.
GG/NG: GG (53%) at 1.90.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was Over 1.5 goals (74%, odds 1.30). Most likely score in line with that pick: Birmingham 1–1 QPR. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
Birmingham56%fair 1.79 · @1.73
Draw25%fair 3.99 · @3.65
QPR19%fair 5.26 · @4.60
2.74Expected goals
1.74Birmingham xG
1.00QPR xG
53%Both score
50%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
1–111%
1–011%
2–110%
2–010%
0–16%
0–06%
From our goals model: Birmingham 1.7 – 1.0 QPR expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
All markets: our price vs the bookmaker
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Birmingham to win✓
56%
1.79
1.73
Double chance
Birmingham or draw✓
81%
1.23
1.18
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✗
53%
1.88
1.90
Draw no bet
Birmingham (draw no bet)✓
75%
1.34
–
Asian handicap
QPR +1.5 (Asian handicap)✓
70%
1.44
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✗
74%
1.35
1.30
Over/under 2.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals✗
50%
2.00
1.95
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
72%
1.40
1.30
Over/under 4.5 goals
Under 4.5 goals✓
86%
1.17
1.10
First team to score
Birmingham to score first✓
59%
1.68
–
Half-time result
Level at half-time✗
41%
2.44
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Birmingham / FT Birmingham✓
34%
2.97
–
Correct score
Correct score 2–1✗
10%
10.23
–
Recent results
Birmingham – last 3
LLW
2 Mar
vs Middlesbrough
1–3
L
25 Feb
@ Millwall
0–3
L
21 Feb
@ Norwich
2–1
W
1.0Scored / game
2.3Conceded / game
67%Both scored
100%Over 2.5
QPR – last 3
LLW
8 Mar
vs Middlesbrough
0–4
L
24 Feb
@ Southampton
0–5
L
21 Feb
@ Hull City
3–1
W
1.0Scored / game
3.3Conceded / game
33%Both scored
100%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Birmingham and QPR.
Our pick is Over 1.5 goals with a 74% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.30.
Who will win Birmingham vs QPR?
On our numbers Birmingham have a 56% chance of winning, the draw 25% and QPR 19%.
How many goals will there be in Birmingham vs QPR?
We expect about 2.7 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 50% likely and both teams score 53% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Birmingham vs QPR?
Our predicted score is Birmingham 1–1 QPR, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.7 goals in total.
When is Birmingham vs QPR?
Birmingham vs QPR (Championship) kicks off on Wednesday 11 March 2026 at 20:45 (West Africa Time) at St. Andrew's @ Knighthead Park.
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
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