Middlesbrough v Charlton Prediction & Expected Goals (11 Mar) – Odds, Stats, Pick

Picks by market

ResultMiddlesbrough to win ✗66% · @1.39

Double chanceMiddlesbrough or draw ✗88% · @1.07

Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✗54% · @2.00

GoalsOver 1.5 goals ✗75% · @1.25

Correct scoreCorrect score 2–1 ✗10% · fair 10.45

Middlesbrough vs Charlton: Betarazi preview and prediction

The fixture

Charlton travel to face Middlesbrough on Wednesday 11 March in the Championship, with Riverside Stadium the venue – the ball rolls at 20:45 WAT. In the table, Middlesbrough are 2nd, among the top four, on 29 points after 15 matches; Charlton are 19th (lower half) with 17. There are 12 points between them, and the seasons have gone in opposite directions.

Current form

Middlesbrough, last 5: WWDDL Their latest outing: 4–0 win over QPR, away. Goals for and against: 1.8 scored, 1.0 conceded per game. Defensively they have kept 2 clean sheets in that run.

Charlton, last 3: DDL Their latest outing: 1–1 draw with West Brom, away. Goals for and against: 1.0 scored, 1.7 conceded per game.

Momentum favours Middlesbrough, collecting 1.6 points per game to 0.7 for Charlton.

Where the goals come from

Betarazi's ratings give Middlesbrough 2.0 xG, Charlton 0.7 xG – a total near 2.7. Neither a goal-fest nor a stalemate: over 2.5 is 52%, GG 54%.

Markets worth a look

1X2 according to our numbers – Middlesbrough 66%, draw 21%, Charlton 12%.
GG/NG: GG (54%) at 2.00.
Price worth noting: Both teams to score @2.00 – the bookmaker implies 50%, our ratings say 54%.

Our call before kick-off

Our pre-match call was Over 1.5 goals (75%, odds 1.25). Most likely score in line with that pick: Middlesbrough 2–0 Charlton. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.

Result chances

Middlesbrough66%fair 1.51 · @1.39

Draw21%fair 4.72 · @4.45

Charlton12%fair 8.01 · @7.90

2.71Expected goals

1.96Middlesbrough xG

0.74Charlton xG

54%Both score

52%Over 2.5

Score grid: top six

1–013%

2–013%

1–110%

2–110%

3–08%

0–07%

From our goals model: Middlesbrough 2.0 – 0.7 Charlton expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.

All markets: our price vs the bookmaker

Market	Most likely	Chance	Fair odds	Bookmaker
Match result	Middlesbrough to win ✗	66%	1.51	1.39
Double chance	Middlesbrough or draw ✗	88%	1.14	1.07
Both teams to score	Both teams to score ✗	54%	1.84	2.00 ▲
Draw no bet	Middlesbrough (draw no bet) ✗	84%	1.19	–
Asian handicap	Middlesbrough -0.5 (Asian handicap) ✗	66%	1.51	–
Over/under 1.5 goals	Over 1.5 goals ✗	75%	1.33	1.25
Over/under 2.5 goals	Over 2.5 goals ✗	52%	1.93	1.80
Over/under 3.5 goals	Under 3.5 goals ✓	70%	1.43	1.38
Over/under 4.5 goals	Under 4.5 goals ✓	85%	1.18	1.14
First team to score	Middlesbrough to score first ✗	68%	1.48	–
Half-time result	Middlesbrough ahead at half-time ✗	47%	2.13	–
Half-time / full-time	HT Middlesbrough / FT Middlesbrough ✗	42%	2.36	–
Correct score	Correct score 2–1 ✗	10%	10.45	–

Middlesbrough – last 5

WWDDL

8 Mar	@ QPR	4–0	W
2 Mar	@ Birmingham	3–1	W
24 Feb	vs Leicester	1–1	D
21 Feb	vs Oxford United	0–0	D
16 Feb	@ Coventry	1–3	L

1.8Scored / game

1.0Conceded / game

60%Both scored

60%Over 2.5

Charlton – last 3

DDL

24 Feb	@ West Brom	1–1	D
21 Feb	@ Southampton	1–1	D
17 Feb	vs Portsmouth	1–3	L

1.0Scored / game

1.7Conceded / game

100%Both scored

33%Over 2.5

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Birmingham	15	8	5	2	+14	29
2	Middlesbrough	15	8	5	2	+11	29
3	Stoke City	15	9	2	4	+6	29
4	Wolves	15	8	4	3	+8	28
5	West Brom	15	8	4	3	+8	28
6	Swansea	15	8	2	5	+4	26
7	Southampton	15	8	4	3	+14	24
8	QPR	15	6	6	3	+6	24
9	West Ham	15	6	5	4	+14	23
10	Sheffield Utd	15	6	4	5	+2	22
11	Portsmouth	15	6	4	5	+2	22
12	Norwich	15	7	0	8	+8	21
13	Blackburn	15	6	3	6	-1	21
14	Cardiff	15	4	6	5	0	18
15	Wrexham	15	4	6	5	-2	18
16	Millwall	15	5	3	7	-4	18
17	Bristol City	15	5	3	7	-8	18
18	Bolton	15	5	2	8	-9	17
19	Charlton	15	4	5	6	-10	17
20	Watford	15	4	3	8	-10	15
21	Lincoln	15	4	3	8	-11	15
22	Burnley	15	1	7	7	-9	10
23	Derby	15	2	4	9	-16	10
24	Preston	15	2	2	11	-17	8

Team

Pts

+14

+11

+14

+14

-1

-2

-4

-8

-9

-10

-10

-11

-9

-16

-17

Frequently asked questions

What is the prediction for Middlesbrough vs Charlton?

Our pick is Over 1.5 goals with a 75% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.25.

Who will win Middlesbrough vs Charlton?

On our numbers Middlesbrough have a 66% chance of winning, the draw 21% and Charlton 12%.

How many goals will there be in Middlesbrough vs Charlton?

We expect about 2.7 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 52% likely and both teams score 54% of the time on our projection.

What is the predicted score for Middlesbrough vs Charlton?

Our predicted score is Middlesbrough 2–0 Charlton, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.7 goals in total.

When is Middlesbrough vs Charlton?

Middlesbrough vs Charlton (Championship) kicks off on Wednesday 11 March 2026 at 20:45 (West Africa Time) at Riverside Stadium.

Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.

Middlesbrough v Charlton: numbers & prediction