Value bet: Metz to win @ 2.80 – our chance 43% vs 36% implied by the price (edge +19%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Picks by market
ResultMetz to win ✗43% · @2.80
Double chanceEither team to win ✓76% · @1.30
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✓62% · @1.80
GoalsOver 1.5 goals ✓75% · @1.38
Correct scoreCorrect score 2–1 ✗9% · fair 10.61
Metz vs Auxerre: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
Metz welcome Auxerre to Stade Saint-Symphorien for a Ligue 1 fixture on Sunday 15 February (17:15 WAT).
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give Metz 1.8 xG, Auxerre 1.3 xG – a total near 3.1. That is an open game on paper: 52% for three or more goals, 62% for GG.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – Metz 43%, draw 24%, Auxerre 33%.
GG/NG: GG (62%) at 1.80.
Price worth noting: Metz to win @2.80 – the bookmaker implies 36%, our ratings say 43%.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was Over 1.5 goals (75%, odds 1.38 – longer than our fair 1.34, so there is value too). Most likely score in line with that pick: Metz 1–1 Auxerre. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
Metz43%fair 2.35 · @2.80
Draw24%fair 4.08 · @3.00
Auxerre33%fair 3.03 · @2.64
3.10Expected goals
1.78Metz xG
1.32Auxerre xG
62%Both score
52%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
1–111%
2–19%
1–08%
2–07%
1–27%
2–26%
From our goals model: Metz 1.8 – 1.3 Auxerre expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
All markets: our price vs the bookmaker
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Metz to win✗
43%
2.35
2.80 ▲
Double chance
Either team to win✓
76%
1.32
1.30
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✓
62%
1.61
1.80 ▲
Draw no bet
Metz (draw no bet)✗
56%
1.78
–
Asian handicap
Auxerre +1 (Asian handicap)✓
66%
1.51
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
75%
1.34
1.38
Over/under 2.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals✓
52%
1.93
2.15 ▲
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✗
69%
1.45
1.25
Over/under 4.5 goals
Under 4.5 goals✓
84%
1.19
1.07
First team to score
Metz to score first✗
55%
1.82
–
Half-time result
Level at half-time✗
39%
2.59
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Metz / FT Metz✗
30%
3.38
–
Correct score
Correct score 2–1✗
9%
10.61
–
Recent results
Metz
No recent results on record.
Auxerre
No recent results on record.
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Metz and Auxerre.
Our pick is Over 1.5 goals with a 75% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.38.
Who will win Metz vs Auxerre?
On our numbers Metz have a 43% chance of winning, the draw 24% and Auxerre 33%.
How many goals will there be in Metz vs Auxerre?
We expect about 3.1 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 52% likely and both teams score 62% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Metz vs Auxerre?
Our predicted score is Metz 1–1 Auxerre, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 3.1 goals in total.
When is Metz vs Auxerre?
Metz vs Auxerre (Ligue 1) kicks off on Sunday 15 February 2026 at 17:15 (West Africa Time) at Stade Saint-Symphorien.
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
