Good pick · fair odds 1.56 · bookmaker 1.53 · Won ✓
6/10Rating
1.53Odds
GG
Value bet: Both teams to score @ 1.80 – our chance 62% vs 56% implied by the price (edge +11%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Picks by market
ResultLens to win ✓62% · @1.31
Double chanceLens or draw ✓82% · @1.05
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✗62% · @1.80
GoalsOver 1.5 goals ✓83% · @1.17
Correct scoreCorrect score 2–1 ✗10% · fair 10.50
Lens vs Metz: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
Metz travel to face Lens on Sunday 8 March in the Ligue 1, with Stade Bollaert-Delelis the venue – the ball rolls at 15:00 WAT.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give Lens 2.1 xG, Metz 1.3 xG – a total near 3.4. Both nets should be busy – over 2.5 sits at 64% and GG at 62%.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – Lens 62%, draw 19%, Metz 18%.
GG/NG: GG (62%) at 1.80.
Price worth noting: Both teams to score @1.80 – the bookmaker implies 56%, our ratings say 62%.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was Over 2.5 goals (64%, odds 1.53). Most likely score in line with that pick: Lens 2–1 Metz. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
Lens62%fair 1.60 · @1.31
Draw19%fair 5.22 · @5.30
Metz18%fair 5.45 · @8.40
3.43Expected goals
2.11Lens xG
1.32Metz xG
62%Both score
64%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
2–110%
1–19%
2–07%
1–07%
3–17%
2–26%
From our goals model: Lens 2.1 – 1.3 Metz expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
All markets: our price vs the bookmaker
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Lens to win✓
62%
1.60
1.31
Double chance
Lens or draw✓
82%
1.22
1.05
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✗
62%
1.61
1.80 ▲
Draw no bet
Lens (draw no bet)✓
77%
1.29
–
Asian handicap
Metz +1.5 (Asian handicap)✗
66%
1.51
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
83%
1.20
1.17
Over/under 2.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals✓
64%
1.56
1.53
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
57%
1.75
1.60
Over/under 4.5 goals
Under 4.5 goals✓
75%
1.33
1.25
First team to score
Lens to score first✓
60%
1.68
–
Half-time result
Lens ahead at half-time✓
42%
2.37
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Lens / FT Lens✓
35%
2.83
–
Correct score
Correct score 2–1✗
10%
10.50
–
Recent results
Lens – last 2
DL
27 Feb
@ Strasbourg
1–1
D
21 Feb
vs Monaco
2–3
L
1.5Scored / game
2.0Conceded / game
100%Both scored
50%Over 2.5
Metz – last 2
LL
1 Mar
vs Stade Brestois 29
0–1
L
15 Feb
vs Auxerre
1–3
L
0.5Scored / game
2.0Conceded / game
50%Both scored
50%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Lens and Metz.
Our pick is Over 2.5 goals with a 64% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.53.
Who will win Lens vs Metz?
On our numbers Lens have a 62% chance of winning, the draw 19% and Metz 18%.
How many goals will there be in Lens vs Metz?
We expect about 3.4 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 64% likely and both teams score 62% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Lens vs Metz?
Our predicted score is Lens 2–1 Metz, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 3.4 goals in total.
When is Lens vs Metz?
Lens vs Metz (Ligue 1) kicks off on Sunday 8 March 2026 at 15:00 (West Africa Time) at Stade Bollaert-Delelis.
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
