Metz 32%Draw 25%Paris FC 43%Expected goals 1.40 – 1.55
76%
Betarazi pick
Over 1.5 goals
Strong pick · fair odds 1.32 · bookmaker 1.30
8/10Rating
1.30Odds
1
Value bet: Metz to win @ 3.40 – our chance 32% vs 29% implied by the price (edge +9%). Bigger price, more risk.
Picks by market
ResultParis FC to win43% · @2.08
Double chanceEither team to win75% · @1.25
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score62% · @1.70
GoalsOver 1.5 goals76% · @1.30
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–29% · fair 11.35
Metz vs Paris FC: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
Paris FC travel to face Metz on Sunday 19 April in the Ligue 1, with Stade Saint-Symphorien the venue – the ball rolls at 16:15 WAT.
Current form
Metz, last 5: LDDLL Their latest outing: 1–3 defeat to Marseille, away. In their own stadium the record reads 0 won, 2 lost from 3. Scoring is the worry: just 0.7 goals a game.
Paris FC, last 5: WDWDW Their latest outing: 4–1 win over Monaco, at home. Goals for and against: 1.8 scored, 0.8 conceded per game. Defensively they have kept 2 clean sheets in that run.
Momentum favours Paris FC, collecting 2.2 points per game to 0.3 for Metz.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give Metz 1.4 xG, Paris FC 1.6 xG – a total near 3.0. Both nets should be busy – over 2.5 sits at 53% and GG at 62%.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – Metz 32%, draw 25%, Paris FC 43%.
GG/NG: GG (62%) at 1.70.
Price worth noting: Metz to win @3.40 – the bookmaker implies 29%, our ratings say 32%.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was Over 1.5 goals (76%, odds 1.30). Most likely score in line with that pick: Metz 1–1 Paris FC. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
Metz32%fair 3.11 · @3.40
Draw25%fair 4.04 · @3.35
Paris FC43%fair 2.32 · @2.08
2.95Expected goals
1.40Metz xG
1.55Paris FC xG
62%Both score
53%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
1–111%
1–29%
0–18%
2–18%
1–07%
0–26%
From our goals model: Metz 1.4 – 1.6 Paris FC expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Team ratings (Betarazi)
Metz
Paris FC
Attack vs Ligue 1 average
-18%
+13%
Goals conceded vs average
-1%
-23%
Our expected goals here
1.59
1.59
Our own ratings from every Ligue 1 result in the last 14 months, recent games counting more. Attack +20% = scores 20% more than an average side; goals conceded −20% = a tighter defence than average. They feed into every chance on this page.
All markets: our price vs the bookmaker
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Paris FC to win
43%
2.32
2.08
Double chance
Either team to win
75%
1.33
1.25
Both teams to score
Both teams to score
62%
1.60
1.70 ▲
Draw no bet
Paris FC (draw no bet)
57%
1.74
–
Asian handicap
Metz +1 (Asian handicap)
74%
1.35
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals
76%
1.32
1.30
Over/under 2.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
53%
1.89
1.90
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals
68%
1.46
1.33
Over/under 4.5 goals
Under 4.5 goals
84%
1.20
1.11
First team to score
Paris FC to score first
50%
2.01
–
Half-time result
Level at half-time
40%
2.50
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Paris FC / FT Paris FC
24%
4.10
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–2
9%
11.35
–
Recent results
Metz – last 6
LDDLLL
10 Apr
@ Marseille
1–3
L
5 Apr
vs Nantes
0–0
D
22 Mar
@ Rennes
0–0
D
15 Mar
vs Toulouse
3–4
L
8 Mar
@ Lens
0–3
L
1 Mar
vs Stade Brestois 29
0–1
L
0.7Scored / game
1.8Conceded / game
33%Both scored
50%Over 2.5
Paris FC – last 5
WDWDW
10 Apr
vs Monaco
4–1
W
5 Apr
@ Lorient
1–1
D
22 Mar
vs Le Havre
3–2
W
15 Mar
@ Strasbourg
0–0
D
1 Mar
vs Nice
1–0
W
1.8Scored / game
0.8Conceded / game
60%Both scored
40%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Metz and Paris FC.
Our pick is Over 1.5 goals with a 76% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.30.
Who will win Metz vs Paris FC?
On our numbers Metz have a 32% chance of winning, the draw 25% and Paris FC 43%.
How many goals will there be in Metz vs Paris FC?
We expect about 3.0 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 53% likely and both teams score 62% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Metz vs Paris FC?
Our predicted score is Metz 1–1 Paris FC, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 3.0 goals in total.
When is Metz vs Paris FC?
Metz vs Paris FC (Ligue 1) kicks off on Sunday 19 April 2026 at 16:15 (West Africa Time) at Stade Saint-Symphorien.
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
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