Paris Saint Germain 68%Draw 19%Lyon 13%Expected goals 2.23 – 0.88
68%
Betarazi pick
Paris Saint Germain to win
Strong pick · fair odds 1.46 · bookmaker 1.31
7/10Rating
1.31Odds
Picks by market
ResultParis Saint Germain to win68% · @1.31
Double chanceParis Saint Germain or draw87% · @1.05
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score58% · @1.73
GoalsOver 1.5 goals82% · @1.14
Correct scoreCorrect score 2–110% · fair 10.24
Paris Saint Germain vs Lyon: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
19:45 WAT, Sunday 19 April: Paris Saint Germain v Lyon in the Ligue 1, played at Parc des Princes. In the table, Paris Saint Germain are 1st, leading the league, on 23 points after 10 matches; Lyon are 5th (upper half) with 17.
Current form
Paris Saint Germain, last 5: WWWWW Their latest outing: 2–0 win over Liverpool, away. In their own stadium the record reads 3 won, 1 lost from 4. The attack is flying at 2.7 goals per game. Defensively they have kept 3 clean sheets in that run.
Lyon, last 5: DLLDD Their latest outing: 0–0 draw with Angers, away. Away from home the record reads 0 won, 1 lost from 4. Scoring is the worry: just 0.5 goals a game.
Momentum favours Paris Saint Germain, collecting 2.5 points per game to 0.5 for Lyon.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give Paris Saint Germain 2.2 xG, Lyon 0.9 xG – a total near 3.1. That is an open game on paper: 63% for three or more goals, 58% for GG.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – Paris Saint Germain 68%, draw 19%, Lyon 13%.
GG/NG: GG (58%) at 1.73.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was Paris Saint Germain to win (68%, odds 1.31). Most likely score in line with that pick: Paris Saint Germain 2–0 Lyon. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
Paris Saint Germain68%fair 1.46 · @1.31
Draw19%fair 5.23 · @5.50
Lyon13%fair 7.94 · @8.30
3.11Expected goals
2.23Paris Saint Germain xG
0.88Lyon xG
58%Both score
63%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
2–011%
1–010%
2–110%
1–19%
3–08%
3–17%
From our goals model: Paris Saint Germain 2.2 – 0.9 Lyon expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Team ratings (Betarazi)
Paris Saint Germain
Lyon
Attack vs Ligue 1 average
+36%
-12%
Goals conceded vs average
-26%
-23%
Our expected goals here
2.25
0.93
Our own ratings from every Ligue 1 result in the last 14 months, recent games counting more. Attack +20% = scores 20% more than an average side; goals conceded −20% = a tighter defence than average. They feed into every chance on this page.
All markets: our price vs the bookmaker
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Paris Saint Germain to win
68%
1.46
1.31
Double chance
Paris Saint Germain or draw
87%
1.14
1.05
Both teams to score
Both teams to score
58%
1.73
1.73
Draw no bet
Paris Saint Germain (draw no bet)
84%
1.18
–
Asian handicap
Paris Saint Germain -0.5 (Asian handicap)
68%
1.47
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals
82%
1.22
1.14
Over/under 2.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
63%
1.60
1.45
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals
59%
1.69
1.67
Over/under 4.5 goals
Under 4.5 goals
77%
1.31
1.28
First team to score
Paris Saint Germain to score first
68%
1.46
–
Half-time result
Paris Saint Germain ahead at half-time
50%
2.02
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Paris Saint Germain / FT Paris Saint Germain
45%
2.24
–
Correct score
Correct score 2–1
10%
10.24
–
Recent results
Paris Saint Germain – last 6
WWWWWL
14 Apr
@ Liverpool
2–0
W
8 Apr
vs Liverpool
2–0
W
3 Apr
vs Toulouse
3–1
W
17 Mar
@ Chelsea
3–0
W
11 Mar
vs Chelsea
5–2
W
6 Mar
vs Monaco
1–3
L
2.7Scored / game
1.0Conceded / game
50%Both scored
67%Over 2.5
Lyon – last 6
DLLDDL
5 Apr
@ Angers
0–0
D
22 Mar
vs Monaco
1–2
L
19 Mar
vs Celta Vigo
0–2
L
15 Mar
@ Le Havre
0–0
D
12 Mar
@ Celta Vigo
1–1
D
22 Feb
@ Strasbourg
1–3
L
0.5Scored / game
1.3Conceded / game
50%Both scored
33%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Paris Saint Germain and Lyon.
What is the prediction for Paris Saint Germain vs Lyon?
Our pick is Paris Saint Germain to win with a 68% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.31.
Who will win Paris Saint Germain vs Lyon?
On our numbers Paris Saint Germain have a 68% chance of winning, the draw 19% and Lyon 13%.
How many goals will there be in Paris Saint Germain vs Lyon?
We expect about 3.1 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 63% likely and both teams score 58% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Paris Saint Germain vs Lyon?
Our predicted score is Paris Saint Germain 2–0 Lyon, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 3.1 goals in total.
When is Paris Saint Germain vs Lyon?
Paris Saint Germain vs Lyon (Ligue 1) kicks off on Sunday 19 April 2026 at 19:45 (West Africa Time) at Parc des Princes.
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
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