Value bet: Castellón to win @ 2.40 – our chance 46% vs 42% implied by the price (edge +9%). Bigger price, more risk.
Picks by market
ResultCastellón to win46% · @2.40
Double chanceEither team to win76% · @1.22
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score61% · @1.57
GoalsOver 1.5 goals76% · @1.22
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–210% · fair 10.38
Albacete vs Castellón: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
Albacete welcome Castellón to Estadio Carlos Belmonte for a Segunda División fixture on Saturday 28 March (21:00 WAT). In the table, Albacete are 21st, in the drop zone, on 10 points after 13 matches; Castellón are 2nd (among the top four) with 27. There are 17 points between them, and the seasons have gone in opposite directions.
Current form
Albacete, last 4: WDLD Their latest outing: 2–1 win over Las Palmas, at home. In their own stadium the record reads 1 won, 0 lost from 3. Goals for and against: 1.0 scored, 1.0 conceded per game.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give Albacete 1.0 xG, Castellón 1.7 xG – a total near 2.7. Neither a goal-fest nor a stalemate: over 2.5 is 53%, GG 61%. Both teams' recent matches have tended to stay under 2.5.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – Albacete 31%, draw 24%, Castellón 46%.
GG/NG: GG (61%) at 1.57.
Price worth noting: Castellón to win @2.40 – the bookmaker implies 42%, our ratings say 46%.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was Over 1.5 goals (76%, odds 1.22). Most likely score in line with that pick: Albacete 1–1 Castellón. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
Albacete31%fair 3.23 · @2.66
Draw24%fair 4.25 · @3.60
Castellón46%fair 2.20 · @2.40
2.70Expected goals
1.04Albacete xG
1.66Castellón xG
61%Both score
53%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
1–112%
0–111%
1–210%
0–29%
1–07%
0–07%
From our goals model: Albacete 1.0 – 1.7 Castellón expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Team ratings (Betarazi)
Albacete
Castellón
Attack vs Segunda División average
-13%
+29%
Goals conceded vs average
+18%
-43%
Our expected goals here
0.77
1.80
Our own ratings from every Segunda División result in the last 14 months, recent games counting more. Attack +20% = scores 20% more than an average side; goals conceded −20% = a tighter defence than average. They feed into every chance on this page.
All markets: our price vs the bookmaker
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Castellón to win
46%
2.20
2.40 ▲
Double chance
Either team to win
76%
1.31
1.22
Both teams to score
Both teams to score
61%
1.64
1.57
Draw no bet
Castellón (draw no bet)
60%
1.68
–
Asian handicap
Albacete +1 (Asian handicap)
63%
1.58
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals
76%
1.31
1.22
Over/under 2.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
53%
1.89
1.70
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals
69%
1.45
1.42
Over/under 4.5 goals
Under 4.5 goals
84%
1.19
1.15
First team to score
Castellón to score first
57%
1.74
–
Half-time result
Level at half-time
42%
2.41
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Castellón / FT Castellón
32%
3.16
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–2
10%
10.38
–
Recent results
Albacete – last 4
WDLD
16 Mar
vs Las Palmas
2–1
W
27 Feb
vs Almeria
1–1
D
22 Feb
@ Malaga
0–1
L
15 Feb
vs Sporting Gijon
1–1
D
1.0Scored / game
1.0Conceded / game
75%Both scored
25%Over 2.5
Castellón – last 2
DW
23 Mar
vs Cultural Leonesa
1–1
D
15 Feb
vs Deportivo La Coruna
2–0
W
1.5Scored / game
0.5Conceded / game
50%Both scored
0%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Albacete and Castellón.
Our pick is Over 1.5 goals with a 76% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.22.
Who will win Albacete vs Castellón?
On our numbers Albacete have a 31% chance of winning, the draw 24% and Castellón 46%.
How many goals will there be in Albacete vs Castellón?
We expect about 2.7 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 53% likely and both teams score 61% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Albacete vs Castellón?
Our predicted score is Albacete 1–1 Castellón, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.7 goals in total.
When is Albacete vs Castellón?
Albacete vs Castellón (Segunda División) kicks off on Saturday 28 March 2026 at 21:00 (West Africa Time) at Estadio Carlos Belmonte.
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
Huesca
Malaga
Deportivo La Coruna