Value bet: Burgos to win @ 3.50 – our chance 32% vs 29% implied by the price (edge +12%). Bigger price, more risk.
Picks by market
ResultValladolid to win42% · @2.15
Double chanceEither team to win73% · @1.28
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score53% · @2.05
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals79% · @1.18
Correct scoreCorrect score 2–18% · fair 11.96
Valladolid vs Burgos: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
Valladolid welcome Burgos to Estadio Municipal José Zorrilla for a Segunda División fixture on Saturday 28 March (16:15 WAT). In the table, Valladolid are 12th, lower half, on 18 points after 13 matches; Burgos are 3rd (among the top four) with 24.
Current form
Burgos, last 3: WDL Their latest outing: 4–0 win over Cordoba, at home. Goals for and against: 1.3 scored, 0.3 conceded per game. Defensively they have kept 2 clean sheets in that run.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give Valladolid 1.3 xG, Burgos 1.1 xG – a total near 2.4. Neither a goal-fest nor a stalemate: over 2.5 is 41%, GG 53%.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – Valladolid 42%, draw 27%, Burgos 32%.
GG/NG: GG (53%) at 2.05.
Price worth noting: Burgos to win @3.50 – the bookmaker implies 29%, our ratings say 32%.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was Over 1.5 goals (67%, odds 1.48). Most likely score in line with that pick: Valladolid 1–1 Burgos. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
Valladolid42%fair 2.41 · @2.15
Draw27%fair 3.76 · @3.15
Burgos32%fair 3.14 · @3.50
2.44Expected goals
1.29Valladolid xG
1.14Burgos xG
53%Both score
41%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
1–113%
1–011%
0–110%
0–09%
2–18%
1–27%
From our goals model: Valladolid 1.3 – 1.1 Burgos expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Team ratings (Betarazi)
Valladolid
Burgos
Attack vs Segunda División average
+15%
+0%
Goals conceded vs average
+10%
-23%
Our expected goals here
1.38
1.30
Our own ratings from every Segunda División result in the last 14 months, recent games counting more. Attack +20% = scores 20% more than an average side; goals conceded −20% = a tighter defence than average. They feed into every chance on this page.
All markets: our price vs the bookmaker
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Valladolid to win
42%
2.41
2.15
Double chance
Either team to win
73%
1.36
1.28
Both teams to score
Both teams to score
53%
1.88
2.05 ▲
Draw no bet
Valladolid (draw no bet)
57%
1.77
–
Asian handicap
Burgos +0.5 (Asian handicap)
60%
1.67
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals
67%
1.50
1.48
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals
59%
1.70
1.53
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals
79%
1.27
1.18
Over/under 4.5 goals
Under 4.5 goals
90%
1.11
1.05
First team to score
Valladolid to score first
48%
2.06
–
Half-time result
Level at half-time
45%
2.23
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Valladolid / FT Valladolid
23%
4.34
–
Correct score
Correct score 2–1
8%
11.96
–
Recent results
Valladolid – last 2
LD
22 Mar
@ Mirandes
1–2
L
22 Feb
@ Sporting Gijon
2–2
D
1.5Scored / game
2.0Conceded / game
100%Both scored
100%Over 2.5
Burgos – last 3
WDL
22 Mar
vs Cordoba
4–0
W
15 Mar
@ Eibar
0–0
D
22 Feb
@ Racing Santander
0–1
L
1.3Scored / game
0.3Conceded / game
0%Both scored
33%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Valladolid and Burgos.
Our pick is Over 1.5 goals with a 67% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.48.
Who will win Valladolid vs Burgos?
On our numbers Valladolid have a 42% chance of winning, the draw 27% and Burgos 32%.
How many goals will there be in Valladolid vs Burgos?
We expect about 2.4 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 41% likely and both teams score 53% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Valladolid vs Burgos?
Our predicted score is Valladolid 1–1 Burgos, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.4 goals in total.
When is Valladolid vs Burgos?
Valladolid vs Burgos (Segunda División) kicks off on Saturday 28 March 2026 at 16:15 (West Africa Time) at Estadio Municipal José Zorrilla.
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
Huesca
Malaga
Deportivo La Coruna