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BetaraziFootball predictions · read by the numbers

Burgos v Almeria: numbers & prediction

Segunda División · Spain · Estadio Municipal de El Plantío

Burgos

DWDL
Sat 9 May 2026

Almeria

WWLWW
Burgos 35%Draw 27%Almeria 38% Expected goals 1.26 – 1.32
73%
Betarazi pick

Under 3.5 goals

Strong pick · fair odds 1.36 · bookmaker 1.30

8/10Rating
1.30Odds

Picks by market

ResultAlmeria to win38% · @2.50
Double chanceEither team to win73% · @1.28
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score60% · @1.70
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals73% · @1.30
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–28% · fair 12.04

Burgos vs Almeria: Betarazi preview and prediction

The fixture

Almeria travel to face Burgos on Saturday 9 May in the Segunda División, with Estadio Municipal de El Plantío the venue – the ball rolls at 15:15 WAT. In the table, Burgos are 3rd, among the top four, on 24 points after 13 matches; Almeria are 1st (leading the league) with 29.

Current form

Burgos, last 4: DWDL Their latest outing: 1–1 draw with AD Ceuta FC, at home. Goals for and against: 1.3 scored, 0.5 conceded per game. Defensively they have kept 2 clean sheets in that run.

Almeria, last 5: WWLWW Their latest outing: 4–2 win over Mirandes, at home. 2.8 goals per outing makes them dangerous.

Momentum favours Almeria, collecting 2.5 points per game to 1.3 for Burgos.

Where the goals come from

Betarazi's ratings give Burgos 1.3 xG, Almeria 1.3 xG – a total near 2.6. Neither a goal-fest nor a stalemate: over 2.5 is 48%, GG 60%.

Markets worth a look

  • 1X2 according to our numbers – Burgos 35%, draw 27%, Almeria 38%.
  • GG/NG: GG (60%) at 1.70.

Our call before kick-off

Our pre-match call was Under 3.5 goals (73%, odds 1.30). Most likely score in line with that pick: Burgos 1–1 Almeria. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.

Result chances

Burgos35%fair 2.86 · @2.74
Draw27%fair 3.72 · @3.25
Almeria38%fair 2.62 · @2.50
2.57Expected goals
1.26Burgos xG
1.32Almeria xG
60%Both score
48%Over 2.5

Score grid: top six

1–113%
0–110%
1–010%
1–28%
2–18%
0–08%

From our goals model: Burgos 1.3 – 1.3 Almeria expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.

Team ratings (Betarazi)

BurgosAlmeria
Attack vs Segunda División average+0%+32%
Goals conceded vs average-23%-26%
Our expected goals here1.171.21

Our own ratings from every Segunda División result in the last 14 months, recent games counting more. Attack +20% = scores 20% more than an average side; goals conceded −20% = a tighter defence than average. They feed into every chance on this page.

All markets: our price vs the bookmaker

MarketMost likelyChanceFair oddsBookmaker
Match resultAlmeria to win38%2.622.50
Double chanceEither team to win73%1.371.28
Both teams to scoreBoth teams to score60%1.661.70
Draw no betAlmeria (draw no bet)52%1.91–
Asian handicapBurgos +0.5 (Asian handicap)62%1.62–
Over/under 1.5 goalsOver 1.5 goals72%1.391.33
Over/under 2.5 goalsUnder 2.5 goals52%1.921.83
Over/under 3.5 goalsUnder 3.5 goals73%1.361.30
Over/under 4.5 goalsUnder 4.5 goals87%1.151.10
First team to scoreAlmeria to score first47%2.12–
Half-time resultLevel at half-time43%2.30–
Half-time / full-timeHT Almeria / FT Almeria22%4.55–
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–28%12.04–

Recent results

Burgos – last 4

DWDL
1 Aprvs AD Ceuta FC1–1D
22 Marvs Cordoba4–0W
15 Mar@ Eibar0–0D
22 Feb@ Racing Santander0–1L
1.3Scored / game
0.5Conceded / game
25%Both scored
25%Over 2.5

Almeria – last 6

WWLWWW
4 Mayvs Mirandes4–2W
5 Aprvs Leganes2–1W
2 Apr@ Castellón0–2L
29 Marvs Real Sociedad II5–1W
20 Mar@ Huesca3–1W
9 Marvs Cultural Leonesa3–0W
2.8Scored / game
1.2Conceded / game
67%Both scored
83%Over 2.5

Head to head

No previous meetings on record between Burgos and Almeria.

Burgos vs Almeria head-to-head page →

Segunda División table

#TeamPWDLGDPts
1Almeria13922+1429
2Castellón12831+1827
3Burgos13733+524
4Eibar12723+723
5Granada CF12723+623
6Mallorca12642+822
7Sporting Gijon13715-122
8Girona13634+1021
9Oviedo13634+321
10Las Palmas13625-220
11Cordoba13616019
12Valladolid13535+218
13Sabadell13463+118
14Tenerife12363-215
15Eldense13427-614
16Celta de Vigo II13346-613
17Real Sociedad II13337-712
18Leganes13337-1212
19FC Andorra12327-511
20Cadiz13247-210
21Albacete13319-1110
22AD Ceuta FC131210-205

More Segunda División predictions

League hub
FT AD Ceuta FC1 Castellón1 115%4.70X21%4.00264%1.64 0.8–2.1xG U3.5Under 3.5 goals 64%@1.57 ✓
– Albacete Cultural Leonesa 144%2.20X27%3.15229%3.35 1.5–1.1xG O1.5Over 1.5 goals 73%@1.28
– Valladolid Zaragoza 149%2.08X25%3.30226%3.50 1.6–1.0xG U3.5Under 3.5 goals 73%@1.28
– Malaga Sporting Gijon 158%1.53X24%4.10219%5.75 1.7–0.9xG O1.5Over 1.5 goals 76%@1.22

Frequently asked questions

What is the prediction for Burgos vs Almeria?

Our pick is Under 3.5 goals with a 73% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.30.

Who will win Burgos vs Almeria?

On our numbers Burgos have a 35% chance of winning, the draw 27% and Almeria 38%.

How many goals will there be in Burgos vs Almeria?

We expect about 2.6 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 48% likely and both teams score 60% of the time on our projection.

What is the predicted score for Burgos vs Almeria?

Our predicted score is Burgos 1–1 Almeria, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.6 goals in total.

When is Burgos vs Almeria?

Burgos vs Almeria (Segunda División) kicks off on Saturday 9 May 2026 at 15:15 (West Africa Time) at Estadio Municipal de El Plantío.

Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.