AD Ceuta FC 15%Draw 21%Castellón 64%Expected goals 0.78 – 2.09
64%
Betarazi pick
Under 3.5 goals
Good pick · fair odds 1.56 · bookmaker 1.57 · Won ✓
6/10Rating
1.57Odds
Picks by market
ResultCastellón to win ✗64% · @1.64
Double chanceCastellón or draw ✓85% · @1.18
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✓57% · @1.55
GoalsOver 1.5 goals ✓79% · @1.18
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–2 ✗10% · fair 10.34
AD Ceuta FC vs Castellón: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
13:00 WAT, Saturday 9 May: AD Ceuta FC v Castellón in the Segunda División, played at Estadio Municipal Alfonso Murube. In the table, AD Ceuta FC are 22nd, in the drop zone, on 5 points after 13 matches; Castellón are 2nd (among the top four) with 27. There are 22 points between them, and the seasons have gone in opposite directions.
Current form
AD Ceuta FC, last 5: DLDWL Their latest outing: 0–0 draw with Real Sociedad II, at home. Scoring is the worry: just 0.7 goals a game.
Castellón, last 4: WWDW Their latest outing: 3–2 win over Granada CF, at home. Scoring is no problem – 2.0 a game lately. Defensively they have kept 2 clean sheets in that run.
Momentum favours Castellón, collecting 2.5 points per game to 1.3 for AD Ceuta FC.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give AD Ceuta FC 0.8 xG, Castellón 2.1 xG – a total near 2.9. Neither a goal-fest nor a stalemate: over 2.5 is 58%, GG 57%.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – AD Ceuta FC 15%, draw 21%, Castellón 64%.
Lower-risk option: Castellón or draw (85%) at 1.18.
GG/NG: GG (57%) at 1.55.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was Under 3.5 goals (64%, odds 1.57). Most likely score in line with that pick: AD Ceuta FC 0–2 Castellón. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
AD Ceuta FC15%fair 6.61 · @4.70
Draw21%fair 4.73 · @4.00
Castellón64%fair 1.57 · @1.64
2.87Expected goals
0.78AD Ceuta FC xG
2.09Castellón xG
57%Both score
58%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
0–212%
0–112%
1–210%
1–19%
0–39%
1–37%
From our goals model: AD Ceuta FC 0.8 – 2.1 Castellón expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Team ratings (Betarazi)
AD Ceuta FC
Castellón
Attack vs Segunda División average
-31%
+29%
Goals conceded vs average
+35%
-43%
Our expected goals here
0.62
2.05
Our own ratings from every Segunda División result in the last 14 months, recent games counting more. Attack +20% = scores 20% more than an average side; goals conceded −20% = a tighter defence than average. They feed into every chance on this page.
All markets: our price vs the bookmaker
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Castellón to win✗
64%
1.57
1.64
Double chance
Castellón or draw✓
85%
1.18
1.18
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✓
57%
1.76
1.55
Draw no bet
Castellón (draw no bet)
81%
1.24
–
Asian handicap
Castellón -0.5 (Asian handicap)✗
68%
1.48
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
79%
1.26
1.18
Over/under 2.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals✗
58%
1.73
1.55
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
64%
1.56
1.57
Over/under 4.5 goals
Under 4.5 goals✓
81%
1.24
1.22
First team to score
Castellón to score first
69%
1.46
–
Half-time result
Castellón ahead at half-time✗
49%
2.06
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Castellón / FT Castellón✗
44%
2.28
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–2✗
10%
10.34
–
Recent results
AD Ceuta FC – last 6
DLDWLW
10 Apr
vs Real Sociedad II
0–0
D
5 Apr
@ Eibar
0–3
L
1 Apr
@ Burgos
1–1
D
28 Mar
vs Cadiz
2–1
W
8 Mar
@ Las Palmas
0–4
L
1 Mar
@ Mirandes
1–0
W
0.7Scored / game
1.5Conceded / game
33%Both scored
50%Over 2.5
Castellón – last 4
WWDW
6 Apr
vs Granada CF
3–2
W
2 Apr
vs Almeria
2–0
W
23 Mar
vs Cultural Leonesa
1–1
D
15 Feb
vs Deportivo La Coruna
2–0
W
2.0Scored / game
0.8Conceded / game
50%Both scored
25%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between AD Ceuta FC and Castellón.
What is the prediction for AD Ceuta FC vs Castellón?
Our pick is Under 3.5 goals with a 64% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.57.
Who will win AD Ceuta FC vs Castellón?
On our numbers AD Ceuta FC have a 15% chance of winning, the draw 21% and Castellón 64%.
How many goals will there be in AD Ceuta FC vs Castellón?
We expect about 2.9 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 58% likely and both teams score 57% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for AD Ceuta FC vs Castellón?
Our predicted score is AD Ceuta FC 0–2 Castellón, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.9 goals in total.
When is AD Ceuta FC vs Castellón?
AD Ceuta FC vs Castellón (Segunda División) kicks off on Saturday 9 May 2026 at 13:00 (West Africa Time) at Estadio Municipal Alfonso Murube.
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
Cultural Leonesa
Zaragoza
Malaga