Malaga v Sporting Gijon Prediction & Expected Goals (9 May) – Odds, Stats, Pick

Picks by market

ResultMalaga to win58% · @1.53

Double chanceMalaga or draw81% · @1.13

Both teams scoreBoth teams to score59% · @1.75

GoalsOver 1.5 goals76% · @1.22

Correct scoreCorrect score 2–110% · fair 10.25

Malaga vs Sporting Gijon: Betarazi preview and prediction

The fixture

On Saturday 9 May the Segunda División brings Malaga against Sporting Gijon at Estadio La Rosaleda. Kick-off: 20:00 WAT.

Current form

Malaga, last 4: DWWL Their latest outing: 3–3 draw with FC Andorra, away. The attack is flying at 2.5 goals per game.

Sporting Gijon, last 5: LWWLL Their latest outing: 2–3 defeat to Cordoba, away. Away from home the record reads 0 won, 3 lost from 3. Goals for and against: 1.2 scored, 1.2 conceded per game. Defensively they have kept 3 clean sheets in that run.

Momentum favours Malaga, collecting 1.8 points per game to 1.2 for Sporting Gijon.

Where the goals come from

Betarazi's ratings give Malaga 1.7 xG, Sporting Gijon 0.9 xG – a total near 2.7. Neither a goal-fest nor a stalemate: over 2.5 is 53%, GG 59%.

Markets worth a look

1X2 according to our numbers – Malaga 58%, draw 24%, Sporting Gijon 19%.
Lower-risk option: Malaga or draw (81%) at 1.13.
GG/NG: GG (59%) at 1.75.

Our call before kick-off

Our pre-match call was Over 1.5 goals (76%, odds 1.22). Most likely score in line with that pick: Malaga 1–1 Sporting Gijon. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.

Result chances

Malaga58%fair 1.73 · @1.53

Draw24%fair 4.25 · @4.10

Sporting Gijon19%fair 5.39 · @5.75

2.68Expected goals

1.74Malaga xG

0.94Sporting Gijon xG

59%Both score

53%Over 2.5

Score grid: top six

1–012%

1–111%

2–010%

2–110%

0–07%

0–16%

From our goals model: Malaga 1.7 – 0.9 Sporting Gijon expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.

Team ratings (Betarazi)

	Malaga	Sporting Gijon
Attack vs Segunda División average	+5%	-8%
Goals conceded vs average	-18%	-8%
Our expected goals here	1.52	0.90

Malaga

Sporting Gijon

Attack vs Segunda División average

+5%

-8%

Goals conceded vs average

-18%

-8%

Our expected goals here

1.52

0.90

Our own ratings from every Segunda División result in the last 14 months, recent games counting more. Attack +20% = scores 20% more than an average side; goals conceded −20% = a tighter defence than average. They feed into every chance on this page.

All markets: our price vs the bookmaker

Market	Most likely	Chance	Fair odds	Bookmaker
Match result	Malaga to win	58%	1.73	1.53
Double chance	Malaga or draw	81%	1.23	1.13
Both teams to score	Both teams to score	59%	1.70	1.75
Draw no bet	Malaga (draw no bet)	76%	1.32	–
Asian handicap	Sporting Gijon +1.5 (Asian handicap)	68%	1.46	–
Over/under 1.5 goals	Over 1.5 goals	76%	1.31	1.22
Over/under 2.5 goals	Over 2.5 goals	53%	1.90	1.70
Over/under 3.5 goals	Under 3.5 goals	69%	1.45	1.42
Over/under 4.5 goals	Under 4.5 goals	84%	1.19	1.17
First team to score	Malaga to score first	61%	1.65	–
Half-time result	Level at half-time	41%	2.42	–
Half-time / full-time	HT Malaga / FT Malaga	35%	2.88	–
Correct score	Correct score 2–1	10%	10.25	–

Market

Most likely

Chance

Fair odds

Bookmaker

Match result

Malaga to win

58%

1.73

1.53

Double chance

Malaga or draw

81%

1.23

1.13

Both teams to score

Both teams to score

59%

1.70

1.75

Draw no bet

Malaga (draw no bet)

76%

1.32

–

Asian handicap

Sporting Gijon +1.5 (Asian handicap)

68%

1.46

–

Over/under 1.5 goals

Over 1.5 goals

76%

1.31

1.22

Over/under 2.5 goals

Over 2.5 goals

53%

1.90

1.70

Over/under 3.5 goals

Under 3.5 goals

69%

1.45

1.42

Over/under 4.5 goals

Under 4.5 goals

84%

1.19

1.17

First team to score

Malaga to score first

61%

1.65

–

Half-time result

Level at half-time

41%

2.42

–

Half-time / full-time

HT Malaga / FT Malaga

35%

2.88

–

Correct score

Correct score 2–1

10%

10.25

–

Recent results

Head to head

Segunda División table

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Almeria	13	9	2	2	+14	29
2	Castellón	12	8	3	1	+18	27
3	Burgos	13	7	3	3	+5	24
4	Eibar	12	7	2	3	+7	23
5	Granada CF	12	7	2	3	+6	23
6	Mallorca	12	6	4	2	+8	22
7	Sporting Gijon	13	7	1	5	-1	22
8	Girona	13	6	3	4	+10	21
9	Oviedo	13	6	3	4	+3	21
10	Las Palmas	13	6	2	5	-2	20
11	Cordoba	13	6	1	6	0	19
12	Valladolid	13	5	3	5	+2	18
13	Sabadell	13	4	6	3	+1	18
14	Tenerife	12	3	6	3	-2	15
15	Eldense	13	4	2	7	-6	14
16	Celta de Vigo II	13	3	4	6	-6	13
17	Real Sociedad II	13	3	3	7	-7	12
18	Leganes	13	3	3	7	-12	12
19	FC Andorra	12	3	2	7	-5	11
20	Cadiz	13	2	4	7	-2	10
21	Albacete	13	3	1	9	-11	10
22	AD Ceuta FC	13	1	2	10	-20	5

Team

Pts

+14

+18

-1

+10

-2

-2

-6

-6

-7

-12

-5

-2

-11

-20

Frequently asked questions

What is the prediction for Malaga vs Sporting Gijon?

Our pick is Over 1.5 goals with a 76% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.22.

Who will win Malaga vs Sporting Gijon?

On our numbers Malaga have a 58% chance of winning, the draw 24% and Sporting Gijon 19%.

How many goals will there be in Malaga vs Sporting Gijon?

We expect about 2.7 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 53% likely and both teams score 59% of the time on our projection.

What is the predicted score for Malaga vs Sporting Gijon?

Our predicted score is Malaga 1–1 Sporting Gijon, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.7 goals in total.

When is Malaga vs Sporting Gijon?

Malaga vs Sporting Gijon (Segunda División) kicks off on Saturday 9 May 2026 at 20:00 (West Africa Time) at Estadio La Rosaleda.

Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.

1 Apr	@ FC Andorra	3–3	D
15 Mar	vs Huesca	5–3	W
22 Feb	vs Albacete	1–0	W
16 Feb	@ Real Sociedad II	1–2	L

26 Apr	@ Cordoba	2–3	L
19 Apr	vs Cadiz	3–0	W
6 Apr	vs Real Sociedad II	1–0	W
1 Apr	@ Racing Santander	1–3	L
8 Mar	@ FC Andorra	0–1	L
2 Mar	vs Leganes	0–0	D

Malaga v Sporting Gijon: numbers & prediction

Malaga

Sporting Gijon

Over 1.5 goals

Picks by market

Malaga vs Sporting Gijon: Betarazi preview and prediction

The fixture

Current form

Where the goals come from

Markets worth a look

Our call before kick-off

Result chances

Score grid: top six

Team ratings (Betarazi)

All markets: our price vs the bookmaker

Recent results

Malaga – last 4

Sporting Gijon – last 6

Head to head

Segunda División table

More Segunda División predictions

Frequently asked questions