Ammanford AFC 59%Draw 24%Baglan Dragons 17%Expected goals 1.54 – 0.82
59%
Betarazi pick
Ammanford AFC to win
Good pick · fair odds 1.68 · bookmaker 1.35 · Won ✓
5/10Rating
1.35Odds
GG
Value bet: Both teams to score @ 1.95 – our chance 55% vs 51% implied by the price (edge +7%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Picks by market
ResultAmmanford AFC to win ✓59% · @1.35
Double chanceAmmanford AFC or draw ✓83% · @1.07
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✗55% · @1.95
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✓79% · fair 1.27
Correct scoreCorrect score 2–1 ✗9% · fair 10.89
Ammanford AFC vs Baglan Dragons: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
20:30 WAT, Friday 20 March: Ammanford AFC v Baglan Dragons in the FAW Championship, played at Ammanford Recreation Ground.
Current form
Ammanford AFC, last 4: WLWD Their latest outing: 2–1 win over Cardiff Draconians, at home. In their own stadium the record reads 2 won, 0 lost from 3. Goals for and against: 1.3 scored, 1.3 conceded per game.
Baglan Dragons, last 4: LWLL Their latest outing: 1–4 defeat to Treowen Stars, away. Away from home the record reads 1 won, 3 lost from 4. Scoring is the worry: just 0.8 goals a game.
Momentum favours Ammanford AFC, collecting 1.8 points per game to 0.8 for Baglan Dragons.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give Ammanford AFC 1.5 xG, Baglan Dragons 0.8 xG – a total near 2.4. Neither a goal-fest nor a stalemate: over 2.5 is 42%, GG 55%. Both teams' recent matches have tended to go over 2.5.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – Ammanford AFC 59%, draw 24%, Baglan Dragons 17%.
GG/NG: GG (55%) at 1.95.
Price worth noting: Both teams to score @1.95 – the bookmaker implies 51%, our ratings say 55%.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was Ammanford AFC to win (59%, odds 1.35). Most likely score in line with that pick: Ammanford AFC 1–0 Baglan Dragons. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
Ammanford AFC59%fair 1.68 · @1.35
Draw24%fair 4.18 · @4.33
Baglan Dragons17%fair 6.00 · @7.00
2.36Expected goals
1.54Ammanford AFC xG
0.82Baglan Dragons xG
55%Both score
42%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
1–015%
1–112%
2–011%
0–09%
2–19%
0–18%
From our goals model: Ammanford AFC 1.5 – 0.8 Baglan Dragons expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Team ratings (Betarazi)
Ammanford AFC
Baglan Dragons
Attack vs FAW Championship average
-2%
-35%
Goals conceded vs average
-16%
-24%
Our expected goals here
1.33
0.92
Our own ratings from every FAW Championship result in the last 14 months, recent games counting more. Attack +20% = scores 20% more than an average side; goals conceded −20% = a tighter defence than average. They feed into every chance on this page.
All markets: our price vs the bookmaker
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Ammanford AFC to win✓
59%
1.68
1.35
Double chance
Ammanford AFC or draw✓
83%
1.20
1.07
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✗
55%
1.83
1.95 ▲
Draw no bet
Ammanford AFC (draw no bet)✓
78%
1.28
–
Asian handicap
Baglan Dragons +1 (Asian handicap)
62%
1.62
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✗
68%
1.46
–
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✓
58%
1.72
–
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
79%
1.27
–
Over/under 4.5 goals
Under 4.5 goals✓
91%
1.10
–
First team to score
Ammanford AFC to score first✓
59%
1.69
–
Half-time result
Level at half-time✗
45%
2.24
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Ammanford AFC / FT Ammanford AFC✓
33%
3.05
–
Correct score
Correct score 2–1✗
9%
10.89
–
Recent results
Ammanford AFC – last 4
WLWD
6 Mar
vs Cardiff Draconians
2–1
W
1 Mar
@ Afan Lido
1–3
L
24 Feb
vs Aberystwyth Town
2–1
W
13 Feb
vs Trethomas Bluebirds
0–0
D
1.3Scored / game
1.3Conceded / game
75%Both scored
75%Over 2.5
Baglan Dragons – last 4
LWLL
17 Mar
@ Treowen Stars
1–4
L
6 Mar
@ Newport City
2–1
W
21 Feb
@ Pontypridd Town
0–2
L
17 Feb
@ Trefelin
0–3
L
0.8Scored / game
2.5Conceded / game
50%Both scored
75%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Ammanford AFC and Baglan Dragons.
What is the prediction for Ammanford AFC vs Baglan Dragons?
Our pick is Ammanford AFC to win with a 59% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.35.
Who will win Ammanford AFC vs Baglan Dragons?
On our numbers Ammanford AFC have a 59% chance of winning, the draw 24% and Baglan Dragons 17%.
How many goals will there be in Ammanford AFC vs Baglan Dragons?
We expect about 2.4 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 42% likely and both teams score 55% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Ammanford AFC vs Baglan Dragons?
Our predicted score is Ammanford AFC 1–0 Baglan Dragons, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.4 goals in total.
When is Ammanford AFC vs Baglan Dragons?
Ammanford AFC vs Baglan Dragons (FAW Championship) kicks off on Friday 20 March 2026 at 20:30 (West Africa Time) at Ammanford Recreation Ground.
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
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