Value bet: Arouca to win @ 2.30 – our chance 48% vs 43% implied by the price (edge +10%). Bigger price, more risk. Won ✓
Picks by market
ResultArouca to win ✓48% · @2.30
Double chanceEither team to win ✓75% · @1.31
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✗57% · @1.70
GoalsOver 1.5 goals ✓73% · @1.27
Correct scoreCorrect score 2–1 ✗10% · fair 10.36
Arouca vs Nacional: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
Nacional travel to face Arouca on Saturday 21 February in the Primeira Liga, with Estádio Municipal de Arouca the venue – the ball rolls at 16:30 WAT. In the table, Arouca are 5th, upper half, on 20 points after 11 matches; Nacional are 13th (lower half) with 10.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give Arouca 1.7 xG, Nacional 1.0 xG – a total near 2.6. Neither a goal-fest nor a stalemate: over 2.5 is 49%, GG 57%.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – Arouca 48%, draw 25%, Nacional 27%.
GG/NG: GG (57%) at 1.70.
Price worth noting: Arouca to win @2.30 – the bookmaker implies 43%, our ratings say 48%.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was Over 1.5 goals (73%, odds 1.27). Most likely score in line with that pick: Arouca 1–1 Nacional. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
Arouca48%fair 2.09 · @2.30
Draw25%fair 3.94 · @3.30
Nacional27%fair 3.73 · @2.90
2.64Expected goals
1.67Arouca xG
0.97Nacional xG
57%Both score
49%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
1–012%
1–112%
2–010%
2–110%
0–07%
0–17%
From our goals model: Arouca 1.7 – 1.0 Nacional expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
All markets: our price vs the bookmaker
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Arouca to win✓
48%
2.09
2.30 ▲
Double chance
Either team to win✓
75%
1.34
1.31
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✗
57%
1.76
1.70
Draw no bet
Arouca (draw no bet)✓
64%
1.56
–
Asian handicap
Nacional +1 (Asian handicap)✗
61%
1.63
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
73%
1.36
1.27
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✗
51%
1.98
1.83
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
71%
1.40
1.32
Over/under 4.5 goals
Under 4.5 goals✓
86%
1.17
1.11
First team to score
Arouca to score first✓
59%
1.70
–
Half-time result
Level at half-time✓
42%
2.39
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Arouca / FT Arouca✗
33%
3.04
–
Correct score
Correct score 2–1✗
10%
10.36
–
Recent results
Arouca
No recent results on record.
Nacional – last 1
L
15 Feb
vs FC Porto
0–1
L
0.0Scored / game
1.0Conceded / game
0%Both scored
0%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Arouca and Nacional.
Our pick is Over 1.5 goals with a 73% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.27.
Who will win Arouca vs Nacional?
On our numbers Arouca have a 48% chance of winning, the draw 25% and Nacional 27%.
How many goals will there be in Arouca vs Nacional?
We expect about 2.6 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 49% likely and both teams score 57% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Arouca vs Nacional?
Our predicted score is Arouca 1–1 Nacional, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.6 goals in total.
When is Arouca vs Nacional?
Arouca vs Nacional (Primeira Liga) kicks off on Saturday 21 February 2026 at 16:30 (West Africa Time) at Estádio Municipal de Arouca.
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
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