Value bet: Lusitânia Lourosa to win @ 3.20 – our chance 34% vs 31% implied by the price (edge +10%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Picks by market
ResultLeixoes to win ✓41% · @2.08
Double chanceEither team to win ✓75% · @1.25
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✓61% · @1.67
GoalsOver 1.5 goals ✓76% · @1.28
Correct scoreCorrect score 2–1 ✓8% · fair 11.93
Leixoes vs Lusitânia Lourosa: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
On Sunday 17 May the Segunda Liga brings Leixoes against Lusitânia Lourosa at Estádio do Mar. Kick-off: 18:00 WAT. In the table, Leixoes are 12th, lower half, on 11 points after 10 matches; Lusitânia Lourosa are 4th (among the top four) with 19.
Current form
Leixoes, last 5: LWWDW Their latest outing: 2–3 defeat to Maritimo, away. The attack is flying at 2.0 goals per game.
Lusitânia Lourosa, last 5: DWLDD Their latest outing: 0–0 draw with Oliveirense, away. Away from home the record reads 0 won, 1 lost from 3. Scoring is the worry: just 0.8 goals a game. Defensively they have kept 3 clean sheets in that run.
Momentum favours Leixoes, collecting 1.7 points per game to 1.0 for Lusitânia Lourosa.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give Leixoes 1.4 xG, Lusitânia Lourosa 1.4 xG – a total near 2.9. Neither a goal-fest nor a stalemate: over 2.5 is 53%, GG 61%.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – Leixoes 41%, draw 25%, Lusitânia Lourosa 34%.
GG/NG: GG (61%) at 1.67.
Price worth noting: Lusitânia Lourosa to win @3.20 – the bookmaker implies 31%, our ratings say 34%.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was Over 1.5 goals (76%, odds 1.28). Most likely score in line with that pick: Leixoes 1–1 Lusitânia Lourosa. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
Leixoes41%fair 2.44 · @2.08
Draw25%fair 4.07 · @3.40
Lusitânia Lourosa34%fair 2.91 · @3.20
2.86Expected goals
1.43Leixoes xG
1.43Lusitânia Lourosa xG
61%Both score
53%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
1–112%
2–18%
1–28%
1–08%
0–18%
2–26%
From our goals model: Leixoes 1.4 – 1.4 Lusitânia Lourosa expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Team ratings (Betarazi)
Leixoes
Lusitânia Lourosa
Attack vs Segunda Liga average
+11%
-0%
Goals conceded vs average
+31%
-8%
Our expected goals here
1.37
1.60
Our own ratings from every Segunda Liga result in the last 14 months, recent games counting more. Attack +20% = scores 20% more than an average side; goals conceded −20% = a tighter defence than average. They feed into every chance on this page.
All markets: our price vs the bookmaker
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Leixoes to win✓
41%
2.44
2.08
Double chance
Either team to win✓
75%
1.33
1.25
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✓
61%
1.64
1.67
Draw no bet
Leixoes (draw no bet)✓
54%
1.84
–
Asian handicap
Lusitânia Lourosa +0.5 (Asian handicap)✗
62%
1.60
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
76%
1.32
1.28
Over/under 2.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals✓
53%
1.90
1.85
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
69%
1.45
1.33
Over/under 4.5 goals
Under 4.5 goals✓
84%
1.19
–
First team to score
Leixoes to score first✓
47%
2.12
–
Half-time result
Level at half-time✗
41%
2.45
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Leixoes / FT Leixoes✓
22%
4.56
–
Correct score
Correct score 2–1✓
8%
11.93
–
Recent results
Leixoes – last 6
LWWDWL
1 May
@ Maritimo
2–3
L
25 Apr
vs Portimonense
2–0
W
20 Apr
@ FC Porto B
3–0
W
6 Apr
@ Torreense
1–1
D
22 Mar
vs Pacos Ferreira
3–2
W
14 Mar
@ Academico Viseu
1–3
L
2.0Scored / game
1.5Conceded / game
67%Both scored
67%Over 2.5
Lusitânia Lourosa – last 6
DWLDDL
2 May
@ Oliveirense
0–0
D
26 Apr
vs Pacos Ferreira
2–0
W
19 Apr
@ Portimonense
2–3
L
13 Apr
vs FC Porto B
1–1
D
5 Apr
@ União de Leiria
0–0
D
21 Mar
vs Academico Viseu
0–3
L
0.8Scored / game
1.2Conceded / game
33%Both scored
33%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Leixoes and Lusitânia Lourosa.
What is the prediction for Leixoes vs Lusitânia Lourosa?
Our pick is Over 1.5 goals with a 76% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.28.
Who will win Leixoes vs Lusitânia Lourosa?
On our numbers Leixoes have a 41% chance of winning, the draw 25% and Lusitânia Lourosa 34%.
How many goals will there be in Leixoes vs Lusitânia Lourosa?
We expect about 2.9 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 53% likely and both teams score 61% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Leixoes vs Lusitânia Lourosa?
Our predicted score is Leixoes 1–1 Lusitânia Lourosa, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.9 goals in total.
When is Leixoes vs Lusitânia Lourosa?
Leixoes vs Lusitânia Lourosa (Segunda Liga) kicks off on Sunday 17 May 2026 at 18:00 (West Africa Time) at Estádio do Mar.
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
Oliveirense1
Pacos Ferreira2