Value bet: Penafiel to win @ 4.45 – our chance 31% vs 22% implied by the price (edge +39%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Picks by market
ResultPacos Ferreira to win ✓45% · @1.68
Double chanceEither team to win ✓76% · @1.18
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✓60% · @1.70
GoalsOver 1.5 goals ✓75% · @1.25
Correct scoreCorrect score 2–1 ✓8% · fair 12.47
Pacos Ferreira vs Penafiel: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
Penafiel travel to face Pacos Ferreira on Sunday 17 May in the Segunda Liga, with Estádio da Capital do Móvel the venue – the ball rolls at 20:30 WAT.
Current form
Pacos Ferreira, last 5: LLWDL Their latest outing: 1–2 defeat to Feirense, at home. Goals for and against: 1.2 scored, 2.0 conceded per game.
Penafiel, last 5: LWWLD Their latest outing: 2–3 defeat to Torreense, away. Away from home the record reads 1 won, 2 lost from 4. Goals for and against: 1.5 scored, 1.5 conceded per game.
Momentum favours Penafiel, collecting 1.3 points per game to 0.7 for Pacos Ferreira.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give Pacos Ferreira 1.3 xG, Penafiel 1.4 xG – a total near 2.8. Neither a goal-fest nor a stalemate: over 2.5 is 53%, GG 60%.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – Pacos Ferreira 45%, draw 24%, Penafiel 31%.
GG/NG: GG (60%) at 1.70.
Price worth noting: Penafiel to win @4.45 – the bookmaker implies 22%, our ratings say 31%.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was Over 1.5 goals (75%, odds 1.25). Most likely score in line with that pick: Pacos Ferreira 1–1 Penafiel. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
Pacos Ferreira45%fair 2.23 · @1.68
Draw24%fair 4.18 · @3.70
Penafiel31%fair 3.20 · @4.45
2.76Expected goals
1.33Pacos Ferreira xG
1.43Penafiel xG
60%Both score
53%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
1–112%
0–19%
1–29%
1–08%
2–18%
0–26%
From our goals model: Pacos Ferreira 1.3 – 1.4 Penafiel expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Team ratings (Betarazi)
Pacos Ferreira
Penafiel
Attack vs Segunda Liga average
-10%
+48%
Goals conceded vs average
+6%
-4%
Our expected goals here
1.15
1.92
Our own ratings from every Segunda Liga result in the last 14 months, recent games counting more. Attack +20% = scores 20% more than an average side; goals conceded −20% = a tighter defence than average. They feed into every chance on this page.
All markets: our price vs the bookmaker
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Pacos Ferreira to win✓
45%
2.23
1.68
Double chance
Either team to win✓
76%
1.31
1.18
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✓
60%
1.67
1.70
Draw no bet
Pacos Ferreira (draw no bet)✓
59%
1.70
–
Asian handicap
Pacos Ferreira +0.5 (Asian handicap)✓
61%
1.65
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
75%
1.33
1.25
Over/under 2.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals✓
53%
1.90
1.77
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
69%
1.44
1.36
Over/under 4.5 goals
Under 4.5 goals✓
85%
1.17
–
First team to score
Penafiel to score first
48%
2.06
–
Half-time result
Level at half-time✓
42%
2.40
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Penafiel / FT Penafiel✗
23%
4.34
–
Correct score
Correct score 2–1✓
8%
12.47
–
Recent results
Pacos Ferreira – last 6
LLWDLL
3 May
vs Feirense
1–2
L
26 Apr
@ Lusitânia Lourosa
0–2
L
18 Apr
vs Chaves
4–3
W
10 Apr
@ Felgueiras 1932
0–0
D
29 Mar
@ União de Leiria
0–2
L
22 Mar
@ Leixoes
2–3
L
1.2Scored / game
2.0Conceded / game
50%Both scored
50%Over 2.5
Penafiel – last 6
LWWLDD
4 May
@ Torreense
2–3
L
11 Apr
vs Academico Viseu
4–3
W
4 Apr
@ Sporting CP B
2–1
W
15 Mar
@ Feirense
0–1
L
1 Mar
vs Benfica B
1–1
D
22 Feb
@ Felgueiras 1932
0–0
D
1.5Scored / game
1.5Conceded / game
67%Both scored
50%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Pacos Ferreira and Penafiel.
What is the prediction for Pacos Ferreira vs Penafiel?
Our pick is Over 1.5 goals with a 75% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.25.
Who will win Pacos Ferreira vs Penafiel?
On our numbers Pacos Ferreira have a 45% chance of winning, the draw 24% and Penafiel 31%.
How many goals will there be in Pacos Ferreira vs Penafiel?
We expect about 2.8 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 53% likely and both teams score 60% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Pacos Ferreira vs Penafiel?
Our predicted score is Pacos Ferreira 1–1 Penafiel, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.8 goals in total.
When is Pacos Ferreira vs Penafiel?
Pacos Ferreira vs Penafiel (Segunda Liga) kicks off on Sunday 17 May 2026 at 20:30 (West Africa Time) at Estádio da Capital do Móvel.
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
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