Value bet: Horsham to win @ 2.50 – our chance 44% vs 40% implied by the price (edge +10%). Bigger price, more risk. Won ✓
Picks by market
ResultHorsham to win ✓44% · @2.50
Double chanceEither team to win ✓74% · @1.25
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✗57% · @1.75
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✓76% · @1.25
Correct scoreCorrect score 2–1 ✗9% · fair 11.06
Horsham vs Hemel Hempstead Town: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
Horsham welcome Hemel Hempstead Town to The Fusion Aviation Community Stadium for a National League South fixture on Saturday 21 February (16:00 WAT). In the table, Horsham are 12th, upper half, on 22 points after 16 matches; Hemel Hempstead Town are 20th (lower half) with 15.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give Horsham 1.4 xG, Hemel Hempstead Town 1.0 xG – a total near 2.4. Neither a goal-fest nor a stalemate: over 2.5 is 45%, GG 57%.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – Horsham 44%, draw 26%, Hemel Hempstead Town 30%.
GG/NG: GG (57%) at 1.75.
Price worth noting: Horsham to win @2.50 – the bookmaker implies 40%, our ratings say 44%.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was Under 3.5 goals (76%, odds 1.25). Most likely score in line with that pick: Horsham 1–0 Hemel Hempstead Town. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
Horsham44%fair 2.26 · @2.50
Draw26%fair 3.86 · @3.20
Hemel Hempstead Town30%fair 3.34 · @2.62
2.41Expected goals
1.44Horsham xG
0.97Hemel Hempstead Town xG
57%Both score
45%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
1–013%
1–113%
2–09%
2–19%
0–09%
0–19%
From our goals model: Horsham 1.4 – 1.0 Hemel Hempstead Town expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
All markets: our price vs the bookmaker
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Horsham to win✓
44%
2.26
2.50 ▲
Double chance
Either team to win✓
74%
1.35
1.25
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✗
57%
1.75
1.75
Draw no bet
Horsham (draw no bet)✓
60%
1.68
–
Asian handicap
Hemel Hempstead Town +1 (Asian handicap)✗
69%
1.46
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
70%
1.44
1.33
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✓
55%
1.81
1.73
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
76%
1.32
1.25
Over/under 4.5 goals
Under 4.5 goals✓
90%
1.11
–
First team to score
Horsham to score first✓
54%
1.84
–
Half-time result
Level at half-time✗
45%
2.24
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Horsham / FT Horsham✓
28%
3.51
–
Correct score
Correct score 2–1✗
9%
11.06
–
Recent results
Horsham – last 1
L
17 Feb
@ Enfield Town
1–2
L
1.0Scored / game
2.0Conceded / game
100%Both scored
100%Over 2.5
Hemel Hempstead Town
No recent results on record.
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Horsham and Hemel Hempstead Town.
What is the prediction for Horsham vs Hemel Hempstead Town?
Our pick is Under 3.5 goals with a 76% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.25.
Who will win Horsham vs Hemel Hempstead Town?
On our numbers Horsham have a 44% chance of winning, the draw 26% and Hemel Hempstead Town 30%.
How many goals will there be in Horsham vs Hemel Hempstead Town?
We expect about 2.4 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 45% likely and both teams score 57% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Horsham vs Hemel Hempstead Town?
Our predicted score is Horsham 1–0 Hemel Hempstead Town, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.4 goals in total.
When is Horsham vs Hemel Hempstead Town?
Horsham vs Hemel Hempstead Town (National League South) kicks off on Saturday 21 February 2026 at 16:00 (West Africa Time) at The Fusion Aviation Community Stadium.
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
AFC Hornchurch0
Bath City0
Eastbourne Borough4
Enfield Town5