Merthyr Town v Oxford City Prediction & Expected Goals (3 Apr) – Odds, Stats, Pick

Picks by market

ResultOxford City to win ✗39% · @2.80

Double chanceEither team to win ✗77% · @1.18

Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✓67% · @1.35

GoalsOver 1.5 goals ✓82% · fair 1.22

Correct scoreCorrect score 1–2 ✗9% · fair 11.21

Merthyr Town vs Oxford City: Betarazi preview and prediction

The fixture

15:00 WAT, Friday 3 April: Merthyr Town v Oxford City in the National League North, played at Penydarren Park. In the table, Merthyr Town are 17th, lower half, on 19 points after 16 matches; Oxford City are 3rd (among the top four) with 28.

Current form

Merthyr Town, last 3: LWL Their latest outing: 1–2 defeat to Chester, at home. Goals for and against: 1.7 scored, 2.0 conceded per game.

Oxford City, last 3: DDL Their latest outing: 2–2 draw with Curzon Ashton, away. Scoring is the worry: just 0.7 goals a game.

Where the goals come from

Betarazi's ratings give Merthyr Town 1.5 xG, Oxford City 1.7 xG – a total near 3.1. Both nets should be busy – over 2.5 sits at 63% and GG at 67%. Both teams' recent matches have tended to go over 2.5.

Markets worth a look

1X2 according to our numbers – Merthyr Town 37%, draw 23%, Oxford City 39%.
GG/NG: GG (67%) at 1.35.
Price worth noting: Oxford City to win @2.80 – the bookmaker implies 36%, our ratings say 39%.

Our call before kick-off

Our pre-match call was Both teams to score (67%, odds 1.35). Most likely score in line with that pick: Merthyr Town 1–1 Oxford City. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.

Result chances

Merthyr Town37%fair 2.67 · @2.10

Draw23%fair 4.27 · @3.75

Oxford City39%fair 2.56 · @2.80

3.13Expected goals

1.46Merthyr Town xG

1.68Oxford City xG

67%Both score

63%Over 2.5

Score grid: top six

1–111%

1–29%

2–18%

0–17%

2–26%

1–06%

From our goals model: Merthyr Town 1.5 – 1.7 Oxford City expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.

All markets: our price vs the bookmaker

Market	Most likely	Chance	Fair odds	Bookmaker
Match result	Oxford City to win ✗	39%	2.56	2.80 ▲
Double chance	Either team to win ✗	77%	1.31	1.18
Both teams to score	Both teams to score ✓	67%	1.49	1.35
Draw no bet	Oxford City (draw no bet)	51%	1.96	–
Asian handicap	Merthyr Town +1 (Asian handicap) ✓	72%	1.39	–
Over/under 1.5 goals	Over 1.5 goals ✓	82%	1.22	–
Over/under 2.5 goals	Over 2.5 goals ✗	63%	1.58	1.40
Over/under 3.5 goals	Under 3.5 goals ✓	58%	1.74	1.75
Over/under 4.5 goals	Under 4.5 goals ✓	75%	1.33	1.30
First team to score	Oxford City to score first ✗	51%	1.95	–
Half-time result	Level at half-time ✗	39%	2.59	–
Half-time / full-time	HT Oxford City / FT Oxford City ✗	26%	3.87	–
Correct score	Correct score 1–2 ✗	9%	11.21	–

Merthyr Town – last 3

LWL

10 Mar	vs Chester	1–2	L
24 Feb	@ Leamington	2–1	W
21 Feb	@ Alfreton Town	2–3	L

1.7Scored / game

2.0Conceded / game

100%Both scored

100%Over 2.5

Oxford City – last 3

DDL

10 Mar	@ Curzon Ashton	2–2	D
24 Feb	vs AFC Telford United	0–0	D
21 Feb	vs Marine	0–2	L

0.7Scored / game

1.3Conceded / game

33%Both scored

33%Over 2.5

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	South Shields	15	10	2	3	+10	32
2	Hereford	16	9	3	4	+14	30
3	Oxford City	15	8	4	3	+15	28
4	Macclesfield	13	8	3	2	+10	27
5	Hednesford Town	16	8	3	5	+8	27
6	King's Lynn Town	16	8	3	5	+6	27
7	Buxton	16	8	3	5	+5	27
8	Chester	15	8	2	5	+4	26
9	Morecambe	16	7	3	6	+5	24
10	Bedford Town	14	7	1	6	-2	22
11	AFC Telford United	16	6	4	6	-4	22
12	Spalding United	15	6	3	6	+3	21
13	Chorley	15	6	2	7	-1	20
14	Worksop Town	15	6	2	7	-1	20
15	Hebburn Town	15	5	5	5	-8	20
16	Marine	15	6	1	8	0	19
17	Merthyr Town	16	4	7	5	-1	19
18	Brackley Town	16	5	4	7	-9	19
19	Harborough Town	14	4	5	5	-4	17
20	Scarborough Athletic	16	4	4	8	-3	16
21	Radcliffe	15	5	1	9	-8	16
22	Darlington 1883	16	3	3	10	-9	12
23	Southport	15	2	4	9	-15	10
24	Spennymoor Town	15	2	4	9	-15	10

Team

Pts

+10

+14

+15

+10

-2

-4

-1

-1

-8

-1

-9

-4

-3

-8

-9

-15

-15

Frequently asked questions

What is the prediction for Merthyr Town vs Oxford City?

Our pick is Both teams to score with a 67% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.35.

Who will win Merthyr Town vs Oxford City?

On our numbers Merthyr Town have a 37% chance of winning, the draw 23% and Oxford City 39%.

How many goals will there be in Merthyr Town vs Oxford City?

We expect about 3.1 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 63% likely and both teams score 67% of the time on our projection.

What is the predicted score for Merthyr Town vs Oxford City?

Our predicted score is Merthyr Town 1–1 Oxford City, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 3.1 goals in total.

When is Merthyr Town vs Oxford City?

Merthyr Town vs Oxford City (National League North) kicks off on Friday 3 April 2026 at 15:00 (West Africa Time) at Penydarren Park.

Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.

Merthyr Town v Oxford City: numbers & prediction