Hereford v Merthyr Town Prediction & Expected Goals (6 Apr) – Odds, Stats, Pick

Picks by market

ResultHereford to win ✓42% · @2.40

Double chanceEither team to win ✓77% · @1.18

Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✗65% · @1.33

GoalsOver 1.5 goals ✓83% · fair 1.21

Correct scoreCorrect score 2–1 ✗9% · fair 10.98

Hereford vs Merthyr Town: Betarazi preview and prediction

The fixture

Hereford welcome Merthyr Town to Edgar Street for a National League North fixture on Monday 6 April (15:00 WAT). In the table, Hereford are 2nd, among the top four, on 30 points after 16 matches; Merthyr Town are 17th (lower half) with 19.

Current form

Hereford, last 5: LLLLL Their latest outing: 1–2 defeat to Kidderminster Harriers, away. In their own stadium the record reads 1 won, 3 lost from 4. Goals for and against: 1.5 scored, 2.2 conceded per game.

Merthyr Town, last 4: DLWL Their latest outing: 1–1 draw with Oxford City, at home. Goals for and against: 1.5 scored, 1.8 conceded per game.

Momentum favours Merthyr Town, collecting 1.0 points per game to 0.5 for Hereford.

Where the goals come from

Betarazi's ratings give Hereford 1.8 xG, Merthyr Town 1.4 xG – a total near 3.2. That is an open game on paper: 65% for three or more goals, 65% for GG. Both teams' recent matches have tended to go over 2.5.

Markets worth a look

1X2 according to our numbers – Hereford 42%, draw 23%, Merthyr Town 35%.
GG/NG: GG (65%) at 1.33.

Our call before kick-off

Our pre-match call was Both teams to score (65%, odds 1.33). Most likely score in line with that pick: Hereford 1–1 Merthyr Town. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.

Result chances

Hereford42%fair 2.40 · @2.40

Draw23%fair 4.30 · @3.75

Merthyr Town35%fair 2.85 · @2.40

3.20Expected goals

1.77Hereford xG

1.44Merthyr Town xG

65%Both score

65%Over 2.5

Score grid: top six

1–110%

2–19%

1–27%

1–07%

2–27%

2–06%

From our goals model: Hereford 1.8 – 1.4 Merthyr Town expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.

All markets: our price vs the bookmaker

Market	Most likely	Chance	Fair odds	Bookmaker
Match result	Hereford to win ✓	42%	2.40	2.40
Double chance	Either team to win ✓	77%	1.30	1.18
Both teams to score	Both teams to score ✗	65%	1.54	1.33
Draw no bet	Hereford (draw no bet) ✓	54%	1.84	–
Asian handicap	Merthyr Town +1 (Asian handicap) ✗	69%	1.45	–
Over/under 1.5 goals	Over 1.5 goals ✓	83%	1.21	–
Over/under 2.5 goals	Over 2.5 goals ✓	65%	1.55	1.38
Over/under 3.5 goals	Under 3.5 goals ✓	56%	1.78	1.77
Over/under 4.5 goals	Under 4.5 goals ✓	75%	1.34	1.30
First team to score	Hereford to score first ✓	53%	1.89	–
Half-time result	Level at half-time ✗	38%	2.63	–
Half-time / full-time	HT Hereford / FT Hereford ✓	28%	3.62	–
Correct score	Correct score 2–1 ✗	9%	10.98	–

Hereford – last 6

LLLLLW

3 Apr	@ Kidderminster Harriers	1–2	L
31 Mar	vs Macclesfield	0–2	L
24 Mar	vs Spennymoor Town	1–2	L
19 Mar	@ Alfreton Town	1–2	L
17 Mar	vs AFC Fylde	1–4	L
10 Mar	vs Leamington	5–1	W

1.5Scored / game

2.2Conceded / game

83%Both scored

83%Over 2.5

Merthyr Town – last 4

DLWL

3 Apr	vs Oxford City	1–1	D
10 Mar	vs Chester	1–2	L
24 Feb	@ Leamington	2–1	W
21 Feb	@ Alfreton Town	2–3	L

1.5Scored / game

1.8Conceded / game

100%Both scored

75%Over 2.5

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	South Shields	15	10	2	3	+10	32
2	Hereford	16	9	3	4	+14	30
3	Oxford City	15	8	4	3	+15	28
4	Macclesfield	13	8	3	2	+10	27
5	Hednesford Town	16	8	3	5	+8	27
6	King's Lynn Town	16	8	3	5	+6	27
7	Buxton	16	8	3	5	+5	27
8	Chester	15	8	2	5	+4	26
9	Morecambe	16	7	3	6	+5	24
10	Bedford Town	14	7	1	6	-2	22
11	AFC Telford United	16	6	4	6	-4	22
12	Spalding United	15	6	3	6	+3	21
13	Chorley	15	6	2	7	-1	20
14	Worksop Town	15	6	2	7	-1	20
15	Hebburn Town	15	5	5	5	-8	20
16	Marine	15	6	1	8	0	19
17	Merthyr Town	16	4	7	5	-1	19
18	Brackley Town	16	5	4	7	-9	19
19	Harborough Town	14	4	5	5	-4	17
20	Scarborough Athletic	16	4	4	8	-3	16
21	Radcliffe	15	5	1	9	-8	16
22	Darlington 1883	16	3	3	10	-9	12
23	Southport	15	2	4	9	-15	10
24	Spennymoor Town	15	2	4	9	-15	10

Team

Pts

+10

+14

+15

+10

-2

-4

-1

-1

-8

-1

-9

-4

-3

-8

-9

-15

-15

Frequently asked questions

What is the prediction for Hereford vs Merthyr Town?

Our pick is Both teams to score with a 65% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.33.

Who will win Hereford vs Merthyr Town?

On our numbers Hereford have a 42% chance of winning, the draw 23% and Merthyr Town 35%.

How many goals will there be in Hereford vs Merthyr Town?

We expect about 3.2 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 65% likely and both teams score 65% of the time on our projection.

What is the predicted score for Hereford vs Merthyr Town?

Our predicted score is Hereford 1–1 Merthyr Town, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 3.2 goals in total.

When is Hereford vs Merthyr Town?

Hereford vs Merthyr Town (National League North) kicks off on Monday 6 April 2026 at 15:00 (West Africa Time) at Edgar Street.

Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.

Hereford v Merthyr Town: numbers & prediction