Valenciennes vs Aubagne: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
19:30 WAT, Friday 27 March: Valenciennes v Aubagne in the National 1, played at Stade du Hainaut. In the table, Valenciennes are 15th, lower half, on 10 points after 12 matches; Aubagne are 17th (in the drop zone) with 7. Only 3 points split them, so the winner climbs above the loser.
Current form
Valenciennes, last 4: WWDL Their latest outing: 2–1 win over Concarneau, away. Goals for and against: 1.8 scored, 1.5 conceded per game.
Aubagne, last 5: LLLLL Their latest outing: 1–4 defeat to Sochaux, at home. Scoring is the worry: just 0.7 goals a game.
Momentum favours Valenciennes, collecting 1.8 points per game to 0.5 for Aubagne.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give Valenciennes 1.7 xG, Aubagne 0.9 xG – a total near 2.6. Neither a goal-fest nor a stalemate: over 2.5 is 47%, GG 54%. Both teams' recent matches have tended to go over 2.5.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – Valenciennes 56%, draw 25%, Aubagne 19%.
Lower-risk option: Valenciennes or draw (81%) at 1.14.
GG/NG: GG (54%) at 1.83.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was Under 3.5 goals (74%, odds 1.25). Most likely score in line with that pick: Valenciennes 1–0 Aubagne. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
Valenciennes56%fair 1.78 · @1.73
Draw25%fair 3.94 · @3.35
Aubagne19%fair 5.40 · @4.40
2.56Expected goals
1.71Valenciennes xG
0.85Aubagne xG
54%Both score
47%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
1–013%
2–011%
1–111%
2–110%
0–08%
0–17%
From our goals model: Valenciennes 1.7 – 0.9 Aubagne expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
All markets: our price vs the bookmaker
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Valenciennes to win✗
56%
1.78
1.73
Double chance
Valenciennes or draw✓
81%
1.23
1.14
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✗
54%
1.86
1.83
Draw no bet
Valenciennes (draw no bet)
75%
1.33
–
Asian handicap
Aubagne +1.5 (Asian handicap)✓
68%
1.48
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✗
71%
1.40
1.33
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✓
53%
1.88
1.75
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
74%
1.35
1.25
Over/under 4.5 goals
Under 4.5 goals✓
88%
1.13
–
First team to score
Valenciennes to score first✗
62%
1.62
–
Half-time result
Level at half-time✓
42%
2.37
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Valenciennes / FT Valenciennes✗
36%
2.81
–
Correct score
Correct score 2–1✗
10%
10.41
–
Recent results
Valenciennes – last 4
WWDL
20 Mar
@ Concarneau
2–1
W
6 Mar
@ Villefranche
3–2
W
20 Feb
@ Gobelins
1–1
D
13 Feb
vs Stade Briochin
1–2
L
1.8Scored / game
1.5Conceded / game
100%Both scored
75%Over 2.5
Aubagne – last 6
LLLLLW
20 Mar
vs Sochaux
1–4
L
13 Mar
@ Dijon
1–2
L
6 Mar
vs Fleury 91
1–2
L
27 Feb
@ Versailles
0–3
L
20 Feb
vs Quevilly
0–1
L
13 Feb
vs Bourg-en-bresse 01
1–0
W
0.7Scored / game
2.0Conceded / game
50%Both scored
67%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Valenciennes and Aubagne.
What is the prediction for Valenciennes vs Aubagne?
Our pick is Under 3.5 goals with a 74% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.25.
Who will win Valenciennes vs Aubagne?
On our numbers Valenciennes have a 56% chance of winning, the draw 25% and Aubagne 19%.
How many goals will there be in Valenciennes vs Aubagne?
We expect about 2.6 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 47% likely and both teams score 54% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Valenciennes vs Aubagne?
Our predicted score is Valenciennes 1–0 Aubagne, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.6 goals in total.
When is Valenciennes vs Aubagne?
Valenciennes vs Aubagne (National 1) kicks off on Friday 27 March 2026 at 19:30 (West Africa Time) at Stade du Hainaut.
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
Chateauroux3
Dijon3
Sochaux2
Stade Briochin0