Caen v Villefranche Prediction & Expected Goals (24 Apr) – Odds, Stats, Pick

Picks by market

ResultCaen to win ✓63% · @1.77

Double chanceCaen or draw ✓84% · @1.13

Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✗56% · @1.77

GoalsOver 1.5 goals ✓76% · @1.30

Correct scoreCorrect score 2–1 ✗10% · fair 10.15

Caen vs Villefranche: Betarazi preview and prediction

The fixture

Caen welcome Villefranche to Stade Michel d'Ornano for a National 1 fixture on Friday 24 April (18:30 WAT). In the table, Caen are 3rd, among the top four, on 22 points after 12 matches; Villefranche are 16th (in the drop zone) with 8. There are 14 points between them, and the seasons have gone in opposite directions.

Current form

Caen, last 5: WWDDL Their latest outing: 2–0 win over Bourg-en-bresse 01, away. Goals for and against: 1.5 scored, 0.8 conceded per game.

Villefranche, last 5: WDWDL Their latest outing: 3–1 win over Gobelins, at home. Away from home the record reads 1 won, 0 lost from 3. Goals for and against: 1.3 scored, 0.8 conceded per game. Defensively they have kept 3 clean sheets in that run.

Where the goals come from

Betarazi's ratings give Caen 2.2 xG, Villefranche 0.9 xG – a total near 3.1. Both nets should be busy – over 2.5 sits at 54% and GG at 56%.

Markets worth a look

1X2 according to our numbers – Caen 63%, draw 21%, Villefranche 16%.
Lower-risk option: Caen or draw (84%) at 1.13.
GG/NG: GG (56%) at 1.77.
Price worth noting: Caen to win @1.77 – the bookmaker implies 56%, our ratings say 63%.

Our call before kick-off

Our pre-match call was Over 1.5 goals (76%, odds 1.30). Most likely score in line with that pick: Caen 2–0 Villefranche. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.

Result chances

Caen63%fair 1.60 · @1.77

Draw21%fair 4.73 · @3.25

Villefranche16%fair 6.13 · @4.40

3.06Expected goals

2.15Caen xG

0.91Villefranche xG

56%Both score

54%Over 2.5

Score grid: top six

2–011%

1–010%

2–110%

1–19%

3–08%

3–17%

From our goals model: Caen 2.2 – 0.9 Villefranche expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.

All markets: our price vs the bookmaker

Market	Most likely	Chance	Fair odds	Bookmaker
Match result	Caen to win ✓	63%	1.60	1.77 ▲
Double chance	Caen or draw ✓	84%	1.20	1.13
Both teams to score	Both teams to score ✗	56%	1.78	1.77
Draw no bet	Caen (draw no bet) ✓	79%	1.26	–
Asian handicap	Caen -0.5 (Asian handicap) ✓	66%	1.52	–
Over/under 1.5 goals	Over 1.5 goals ✓	76%	1.31	1.30
Over/under 2.5 goals	Over 2.5 goals ✓	54%	1.86	1.93
Over/under 3.5 goals	Under 3.5 goals ✓	67%	1.48	1.30
Over/under 4.5 goals	Under 4.5 goals ✓	81%	1.24	–
First team to score	Caen to score first ✓	67%	1.49	–
Half-time result	Caen ahead at half-time ✓	48%	2.08	–
Half-time / full-time	HT Caen / FT Caen ✓	43%	2.33	–
Correct score	Correct score 2–1 ✗	10%	10.15	–

Caen – last 6

WWDDLD

17 Apr	@ Bourg-en-bresse 01	2–0	W
10 Apr	@ Gobelins	3–0	W
3 Apr	vs Stade Briochin	1–1	D
27 Mar	@ Rouen	1–1	D
13 Mar	@ Le Puy Foot	0–1	L
6 Mar	vs Chateauroux	2–2	D

1.5Scored / game

0.8Conceded / game

50%Both scored

33%Over 2.5

Villefranche – last 6

WDWDLW

17 Apr	vs Gobelins	3–1	W
10 Apr	@ Stade Briochin	0–0	D
3 Apr	vs Rouen	2–1	W
27 Mar	@ Orleans	0–0	D
20 Mar	vs Le Puy Foot	2–3	L
13 Mar	@ Chateauroux	1–0	W

1.3Scored / game

0.8Conceded / game

50%Both scored

50%Over 2.5

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	La Roche VF	12	8	3	1	+9	27
2	Rouen	12	8	2	2	+13	26
3	Caen	12	7	1	4	+7	22
4	Versailles	12	7	1	4	+5	22
5	Amiens	12	5	5	2	+11	20
6	Concarneau	12	5	5	2	+5	20
7	Cannes	12	4	6	2	+6	18
8	Le Puy Foot	12	5	3	4	+3	18
9	Gobelins	12	4	4	4	-1	16
10	Quevilly	12	4	4	4	-3	16
11	Thionville Lusitanos	12	4	4	4	0	16
12	Fleury 91	12	4	4	4	+2	16
13	Bastia	12	4	3	5	-4	15
14	Orleans	12	2	5	5	-5	11
15	Valenciennes	12	2	4	6	-6	10
16	Villefranche	12	2	2	8	-16	8
17	Aubagne	12	2	1	9	-13	7
18	Bourg-en-bresse 01	12	1	3	8	-13	6

Team

Pts

+13

+11

-1

-3

-4

-5

-6

-16

-13

-13

Frequently asked questions

What is the prediction for Caen vs Villefranche?

Our pick is Over 1.5 goals with a 76% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.30.

Who will win Caen vs Villefranche?

On our numbers Caen have a 63% chance of winning, the draw 21% and Villefranche 16%.

How many goals will there be in Caen vs Villefranche?

We expect about 3.1 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 54% likely and both teams score 56% of the time on our projection.

What is the predicted score for Caen vs Villefranche?

Our predicted score is Caen 2–0 Villefranche, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 3.1 goals in total.

When is Caen vs Villefranche?

Caen vs Villefranche (National 1) kicks off on Friday 24 April 2026 at 18:30 (West Africa Time) at Stade Michel d'Ornano.

Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.

Caen v Villefranche: numbers & prediction