Good pick · fair odds 1.47 · bookmaker 1.45 · Lost ✗
7/10Rating
1.45Odds
GG
Value bet: Both teams to score @ 2.00 – our chance 56% vs 50% implied by the price (edge +13%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Picks by market
ResultAlgeciras to win ✓47% · @2.05
Double chanceEither team to win ✓74% · @1.30
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✗56% · @2.00
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✓77% · @1.17
Correct scoreCorrect score 2–1 ✗9% · fair 10.78
Algeciras vs Gimnastic: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
Algeciras welcome Gimnastic to Estadio Nuevo Mirador for a Primera División RFEF Group 2 fixture on Sunday 22 March (12:00 WAT). In the table, Algeciras are 13th, lower half, on 14 points after 11 matches; Gimnastic are 11th (lower half) with 15. Only 1 point split them, so the winner climbs above the loser.
Current form
Algeciras, last 4: DLDL Their latest outing: 0–0 draw with Alcorcon, away. Scoring is the worry: just 0.3 goals a game. Defensively they have kept 2 clean sheets in that run.
Gimnastic, last 3: DLW Their latest outing: 0–0 draw with Sabadell, at home. Scoring is the worry: just 0.7 goals a game.
Momentum favours Gimnastic, collecting 1.3 points per game to 0.5 for Algeciras.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give Algeciras 1.5 xG, Gimnastic 1.0 xG – a total near 2.5. Neither a goal-fest nor a stalemate: over 2.5 is 43%, GG 56%. Both teams' recent matches have tended to stay under 2.5.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – Algeciras 47%, draw 26%, Gimnastic 27%.
GG/NG: GG (56%) at 2.00.
Price worth noting: Both teams to score @2.00 – the bookmaker implies 50%, our ratings say 56%.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was Over 1.5 goals (68%, odds 1.45). Most likely score in line with that pick: Algeciras 1–1 Gimnastic. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
Algeciras47%fair 2.14 · @2.05
Draw26%fair 3.82 · @2.95
Gimnastic27%fair 3.69 · @3.70
2.54Expected goals
1.52Algeciras xG
1.02Gimnastic xG
56%Both score
43%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
1–112%
1–012%
2–19%
2–09%
0–18%
0–08%
From our goals model: Algeciras 1.5 – 1.0 Gimnastic expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Team ratings (Betarazi)
Algeciras
Gimnastic
Attack vs Primera División RFEF Group 2 average
+3%
+1%
Goals conceded vs average
+5%
+7%
Our expected goals here
1.83
1.12
Our own ratings from every Primera División RFEF Group 2 result in the last 14 months, recent games counting more. Attack +20% = scores 20% more than an average side; goals conceded −20% = a tighter defence than average. They feed into every chance on this page.
All markets: our price vs the bookmaker
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Algeciras to win✓
47%
2.14
2.05
Double chance
Either team to win✓
74%
1.35
1.30
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✗
56%
1.77
2.00 ▲
Draw no bet
Algeciras (draw no bet)✓
63%
1.58
–
Asian handicap
Gimnastic +1 (Asian handicap)
68%
1.48
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✗
68%
1.47
1.45
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✓
57%
1.75
1.53
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
77%
1.30
1.17
Over/under 4.5 goals
Under 4.5 goals✓
89%
1.13
–
First team to score
Algeciras to score first✓
55%
1.82
–
Half-time result
Level at half-time✗
43%
2.31
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Algeciras / FT Algeciras✓
29%
3.44
–
Correct score
Correct score 2–1✗
9%
10.78
–
Recent results
Algeciras – last 4
DLDL
15 Mar
@ Alcorcon
0–0
D
11 Mar
@ Antequera
0–2
L
1 Mar
vs Teruel
0–0
D
22 Feb
@ Marbella
1–4
L
0.3Scored / game
1.5Conceded / game
25%Both scored
25%Over 2.5
Gimnastic – last 3
DLW
13 Mar
vs Sabadell
0–0
D
1 Mar
vs Antequera
0–1
L
21 Feb
@ Atlético Madrid II
2–1
W
0.7Scored / game
0.7Conceded / game
33%Both scored
33%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Algeciras and Gimnastic.
What is the prediction for Algeciras vs Gimnastic?
Our pick is Over 1.5 goals with a 68% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.45.
Who will win Algeciras vs Gimnastic?
On our numbers Algeciras have a 47% chance of winning, the draw 26% and Gimnastic 27%.
How many goals will there be in Algeciras vs Gimnastic?
We expect about 2.5 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 43% likely and both teams score 56% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Algeciras vs Gimnastic?
Our predicted score is Algeciras 1–1 Gimnastic, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.5 goals in total.
When is Algeciras vs Gimnastic?
Algeciras vs Gimnastic (Primera División RFEF Group 2) kicks off on Sunday 22 March 2026 at 12:00 (West Africa Time) at Estadio Nuevo Mirador.
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
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