Good pick · fair odds 1.58 · bookmaker 1.45 · Lost ✗
6/10Rating
1.45Odds
GG
Value bet: Both teams to score @ 2.10 – our chance 51% vs 48% implied by the price (edge +7%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Picks by market
ResultBarakaldo to win ✓49% · @1.85
Double chanceBarakaldo or draw ✓77% · @1.17
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✗51% · @2.10
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✓82% · @1.17
Correct scoreCorrect score 2–1 ✗8% · fair 12.14
Barakaldo vs Ourense CF: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
Barakaldo welcome Ourense CF to Campo de Lasesarre for a Primera División RFEF Group 1 fixture on Sunday 8 March (18:30 WAT).
Current form
Barakaldo, last 3: LWD Their latest outing: 1–2 defeat to Arenas Getxo, away. Goals for and against: 1.3 scored, 1.3 conceded per game.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give Barakaldo 1.3 xG, Ourense CF 0.8 xG – a total near 2.1. On paper it is a low-scoring affair, with under 2.5 at 63%.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – Barakaldo 49%, draw 28%, Ourense CF 23%.
Lower-risk option: Barakaldo or draw (77%) at 1.17.
GG/NG: GG (51%) at 2.10.
Price worth noting: Both teams to score @2.10 – the bookmaker implies 48%, our ratings say 51%.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was Over 1.5 goals (63%, odds 1.45). Most likely score in line with that pick: Barakaldo 1–1 Ourense CF. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
Barakaldo49%fair 2.04 · @1.85
Draw28%fair 3.54 · @3.10
Ourense CF23%fair 4.41 · @4.10
2.11Expected goals
1.28Barakaldo xG
0.83Ourense CF xG
51%Both score
37%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
1–015%
1–113%
0–012%
0–110%
2–010%
2–18%
From our goals model: Barakaldo 1.3 – 0.8 Ourense CF expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Team ratings (Betarazi)
Barakaldo
Ourense CF
Attack vs Primera División RFEF Group 1 average
-18%
-11%
Goals conceded vs average
-20%
-8%
Our expected goals here
1.04
0.76
Our own ratings from every Primera División RFEF Group 1 result in the last 14 months, recent games counting more. Attack +20% = scores 20% more than an average side; goals conceded −20% = a tighter defence than average. They feed into every chance on this page.
All markets: our price vs the bookmaker
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Barakaldo to win✓
49%
2.04
1.85
Double chance
Barakaldo or draw✓
77%
1.29
1.17
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✗
51%
1.97
2.10 ▲
Draw no bet
Barakaldo (draw no bet)✓
68%
1.46
–
Asian handicap
Ourense CF +1 (Asian handicap)
71%
1.40
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✗
63%
1.58
1.45
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✓
63%
1.59
1.53
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
82%
1.23
1.17
Over/under 4.5 goals
Under 4.5 goals✓
94%
1.07
–
First team to score
Barakaldo to score first✓
53%
1.88
–
Half-time result
Level at half-time✓
48%
2.08
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Barakaldo / FT Barakaldo✗
27%
3.68
–
Correct score
Correct score 2–1✗
8%
12.14
–
Recent results
Barakaldo – last 3
LWD
1 Mar
@ Arenas Getxo
1–2
L
22 Feb
vs Osasuna II
1–0
W
15 Feb
@ Zamora
2–2
D
1.3Scored / game
1.3Conceded / game
67%Both scored
67%Over 2.5
Ourense CF – last 1
L
22 Feb
@ Guadalajara
0–1
L
0.0Scored / game
1.0Conceded / game
0%Both scored
0%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Barakaldo and Ourense CF.
What is the prediction for Barakaldo vs Ourense CF?
Our pick is Over 1.5 goals with a 63% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.45.
Who will win Barakaldo vs Ourense CF?
On our numbers Barakaldo have a 49% chance of winning, the draw 28% and Ourense CF 23%.
How many goals will there be in Barakaldo vs Ourense CF?
We expect about 2.1 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 37% likely and both teams score 51% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Barakaldo vs Ourense CF?
Our predicted score is Barakaldo 1–1 Ourense CF, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.1 goals in total.
When is Barakaldo vs Ourense CF?
Barakaldo vs Ourense CF (Primera División RFEF Group 1) kicks off on Sunday 8 March 2026 at 18:30 (West Africa Time) at Campo de Lasesarre.
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
