Good pick · fair odds 1.56 · bookmaker 1.50 · Lost ✗
6/10Rating
1.50Odds
Picks by market
ResultMelilla to win ✗39% · @2.30
Double chanceEither team to win ✓72% · @1.30
Both teams scoreNot both teams to score ✓52% · fair 1.92
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✓79% · fair 1.27
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–0 ✗12% · fair 8.61
Melilla vs Real Jaén: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
12:00 WAT, Sunday 22 February: Melilla v Real Jaén in the Segunda División RFEF Group 4, played at Estadio Álvarez Claro.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give Melilla 1.2 xG, Real Jaén 1.1 xG – a total near 2.4. Neither a goal-fest nor a stalemate: over 2.5 is 42%, GG 48%.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – Melilla 39%, draw 28%, Real Jaén 33%.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was Over 1.5 goals (64%, odds 1.50). Most likely score in line with that pick: Melilla 1–1 Real Jaén. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
Melilla39%fair 2.55 · @2.30
Draw28%fair 3.56 · @2.80
Real Jaén33%fair 3.06 · @3.10
2.37Expected goals
1.24Melilla xG
1.13Real Jaén xG
48%Both score
42%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
1–113%
1–012%
0–111%
0–09%
2–18%
1–27%
From our goals model: Melilla 1.2 – 1.1 Real Jaén expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
All markets: our price vs the bookmaker
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Melilla to win✗
39%
2.55
2.30
Double chance
Either team to win✓
72%
1.39
1.30
Both teams to score
Not both teams to score✓
52%
1.92
–
Draw no bet
Melilla (draw no bet)✗
55%
1.83
–
Asian handicap
Real Jaén +0.5 (Asian handicap)✓
61%
1.64
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✗
64%
1.56
1.50
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✓
58%
1.73
–
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
79%
1.27
–
Over/under 4.5 goals
Under 4.5 goals✓
91%
1.10
–
First team to score
Melilla to score first✗
48%
2.10
–
Half-time result
Level at half-time✗
45%
2.20
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Melilla / FT Melilla✗
22%
4.49
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–0✗
12%
8.61
–
Recent results
Melilla
No recent results on record.
Real Jaén – last 1
W
15 Feb
vs Deportiva Minera
2–0
W
2.0Scored / game
0.0Conceded / game
0%Both scored
0%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Melilla and Real Jaén.
Our pick is Over 1.5 goals with a 64% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.50.
Who will win Melilla vs Real Jaén?
On our numbers Melilla have a 39% chance of winning, the draw 28% and Real Jaén 33%.
How many goals will there be in Melilla vs Real Jaén?
We expect about 2.4 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 42% likely and both teams score 48% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Melilla vs Real Jaén?
Our predicted score is Melilla 1–1 Real Jaén, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.4 goals in total.
When is Melilla vs Real Jaén?
Melilla vs Real Jaén (Segunda División RFEF Group 4) kicks off on Sunday 22 February 2026 at 12:00 (West Africa Time) at Estadio Álvarez Claro.
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
Almería II2
Puente Genil1
Estepona2
Ucam Murcia0
Deportiva Minera1
Xerez0
Yeclano1
La Unión Atlético0
Águilas3
Málaga II1
Lorca Deportiva1
Antoniano0
Xerez Deportivo0
Extremadura 19240