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BetaraziFootball predictions · read by the numbers

Navalcarnero v Real Madrid III: numbers & prediction

Segunda División RFEF Group 5 · Spain · Estadio Municipal Mariano González

Navalcarnero

LW
2–0
FT

Real Madrid III

L
Navalcarnero 46%Draw 29%Real Madrid III 24% Expected goals 1.32 – 0.82
76%
Betarazi pick

Navalcarnero or draw

Strong pick · fair odds 1.32 · bookmaker 1.25 · Won ✓

8/10Rating
1.25Odds

Picks by market

ResultNavalcarnero to win ✓46% · @2.00
Double chanceNavalcarnero or draw ✓76% · @1.25
Both teams scoreNot both teams to score ✓52% · @1.83
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✓83% · fair 1.21
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–0 ✗15% · fair 6.47

Navalcarnero vs Real Madrid III: Betarazi preview and prediction

The fixture

12:00 WAT, Sunday 1 March: Navalcarnero v Real Madrid III in the Segunda División RFEF Group 5, played at Estadio Municipal Mariano González. In the table, Navalcarnero are 7th, upper half, on 16 points after 10 matches; Real Madrid III are 11th (lower half) with 11.

Where the goals come from

Betarazi's ratings give Navalcarnero 1.3 xG, Real Madrid III 0.8 xG – a total near 2.1. On paper it is a low-scoring affair, with under 2.5 at 64%. Both teams' recent matches have tended to go over 2.5.

Markets worth a look

  • 1X2 according to our numbers – Navalcarnero 46%, draw 29%, Real Madrid III 24%.
  • Lower-risk option: Navalcarnero or draw (76%) at 1.25.
  • GG/NG: NG (52%) at 1.83.

Our call before kick-off

Our pre-match call was Navalcarnero or draw (76%, odds 1.25). Most likely score in line with that pick: Navalcarnero 1–0 Real Madrid III. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.

Result chances

Navalcarnero46%fair 2.16 · @2.00
Draw29%fair 3.41 · @2.90
Real Madrid III24%fair 4.11 · @3.60
2.15Expected goals
1.32Navalcarnero xG
0.82Real Madrid III xG
48%Both score
36%Over 2.5

Score grid: top six

1–015%
1–113%
0–012%
2–010%
0–110%
2–18%

From our goals model: Navalcarnero 1.3 – 0.8 Real Madrid III expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.

Team ratings (Betarazi)

NavalcarneroReal Madrid III
Attack vs Segunda División RFEF Group 5 average+20%-38%
Goals conceded vs average-9%-43%
Our expected goals here1.170.66

Our own ratings from every Segunda División RFEF Group 5 result in the last 14 months, recent games counting more. Attack +20% = scores 20% more than an average side; goals conceded −20% = a tighter defence than average. They feed into every chance on this page.

All markets: our price vs the bookmaker

MarketMost likelyChanceFair oddsBookmaker
Match resultNavalcarnero to win ✓46%2.162.00
Double chanceNavalcarnero or draw ✓76%1.321.25
Both teams to scoreNot both teams to score ✓52%1.931.83
Draw no betNavalcarnero (draw no bet) ✓66%1.53–
Asian handicapReal Madrid III +1 (Asian handicap) ✗69%1.44–
Over/under 1.5 goalsOver 1.5 goals ✓63%1.58–
Over/under 2.5 goalsUnder 2.5 goals ✓64%1.57–
Over/under 3.5 goalsUnder 3.5 goals ✓83%1.21–
Over/under 4.5 goalsUnder 4.5 goals ✓93%1.07–
First team to scoreNavalcarnero to score first ✓54%1.84–
Half-time resultLevel at half-time ✓48%2.10–
Half-time / full-timeHT Navalcarnero / FT Navalcarnero ✗28%3.53–
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–0 ✗15%6.47–

Recent results

Navalcarnero – last 2

LW
22 Feb@ Orihuela0–4L
15 Febvs Intercity3–1W
1.5Scored / game
2.5Conceded / game
50%Both scored
100%Over 2.5

Real Madrid III – last 1

L
15 Feb@ Socuéllamos1–2L
1.0Scored / game
2.0Conceded / game
100%Both scored
100%Over 2.5

Head to head

No previous meetings on record between Navalcarnero and Real Madrid III.

Navalcarnero vs Real Madrid III head-to-head page →

Segunda División RFEF Group 5 table

#TeamPWDLGDPts
1Numancia10541+1119
2Salamanca UDS10613+519
3SS Reyes10613+419
4Conquense9531+918
5A Madrid III10532+318
6Real Valladolid II10523+617
7Navalcarnero10442+316
8CF Talavera9432+315
9Guadalajara10343013
10Albacete II10334-1112
11Real Madrid III10253-111
12Atlético Tordesillas10244010
13RSD Alcalá10244-110
14Gimnástica Segoviana10244-110
15Atlético Paso10244-210
16Getafe II10154-48
17Real Ávila10217-107
18Calvo Sotelo10136-146

More Segunda División RFEF Group 5 predictions

League hub
FT Conquense3 Las Palmas II0 153%2.05X25%2.80222%3.60 1.9–0.9xG 1XConquense or draw 78%@1.25 ✓
FT Rayo Vallecano II1 Tenerife II4 131%2.90X26%3.00243%2.30 1.3–1.6xG GGBoth teams to score 60%@1.75 ✓
FT RSD Alcalá3 Socuéllamos1 158%1.67X25%3.20218%5.00 1.8–1.0xG 1RSD Alcalá to win 58%@1.67 ✓
FT CD Coria1 SS Reyes1 135%2.90X28%2.70237%2.50 1.3–1.2xG GGBoth teams to score 56%@2.10 ✓
FT Quintanar del Rey3 Colonia Moscardó2 153%1.83X25%3.10223%4.00 1.7–1.0xG 1XQuintanar del Rey or draw 77%@1.20 ✓
FT Rayo Majadahonda0 Getafe II1 153%1.91X26%2.88221%4.20 1.7–0.9xG 1XRayo Majadahonda or draw 79%@1.20 ✗

Frequently asked questions

What is the prediction for Navalcarnero vs Real Madrid III?

Our pick is Navalcarnero or draw with a 76% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.25.

Who will win Navalcarnero vs Real Madrid III?

On our numbers Navalcarnero have a 46% chance of winning, the draw 29% and Real Madrid III 24%.

How many goals will there be in Navalcarnero vs Real Madrid III?

We expect about 2.1 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 36% likely and both teams score 48% of the time on our projection.

What is the predicted score for Navalcarnero vs Real Madrid III?

Our predicted score is Navalcarnero 1–0 Real Madrid III, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.1 goals in total.

When is Navalcarnero vs Real Madrid III?

Navalcarnero vs Real Madrid III (Segunda División RFEF Group 5) kicks off on Sunday 1 March 2026 at 12:00 (West Africa Time) at Estadio Municipal Mariano González.

Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.