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Tritons Vallarta v Mineros de Fresnillo: numbers & prediction

Liga Premier Serie A · Mexico · Canchas Curiel

Mineros de Fresnillo

Tritons Vallarta 48%Draw 28%Mineros de Fresnillo 24% Expected goals 1.39 – 1.11

74%

Betarazi pick

Under 3.5 goals

Strong pick · fair odds 1.35 · bookmaker 1.28

8/10Rating

1.28Odds

Picks by market

ResultTritons Vallarta to win48% · @1.68

Double chanceTritons Vallarta or draw76% · @1.11

Both teams scoreBoth teams to score54% · @1.85

GoalsUnder 3.5 goals74% · @1.28

Correct scoreCorrect score 2–19% · fair 11.37

Tritons Vallarta vs Mineros de Fresnillo: Betarazi preview and prediction

The fixture

Mineros de Fresnillo travel to face Tritons Vallarta on Saturday 21 February in the Liga Premier Serie A, with Canchas Curiel the venue – the ball rolls at 23:00 WAT.

Where the goals come from

Betarazi's ratings give Tritons Vallarta 1.4 xG, Mineros de Fresnillo 1.1 xG – a total near 2.5. Neither a goal-fest nor a stalemate: over 2.5 is 47%, GG 54%.

Markets worth a look

1X2 according to our numbers – Tritons Vallarta 48%, draw 28%, Mineros de Fresnillo 24%.
GG/NG: GG (54%) at 1.85.

Our call before kick-off

Our pre-match call was Under 3.5 goals (74%, odds 1.28). Most likely score in line with that pick: Tritons Vallarta 1–1 Mineros de Fresnillo. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.

Result chances

Tritons Vallarta48%fair 2.07 · @1.68

Draw28%fair 3.57 · @3.40

Mineros de Fresnillo24%fair 4.24 · @4.75

2.50Expected goals

1.39Tritons Vallarta xG

1.11Mineros de Fresnillo xG

54%Both score

47%Over 2.5

Score grid: top six

1–113%

1–011%

0–19%

2–19%

0–08%

2–08%

From our goals model: Tritons Vallarta 1.4 – 1.1 Mineros de Fresnillo expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.

All markets: our price vs the bookmaker

Market	Most likely	Chance	Fair odds	Bookmaker
Match result	Tritons Vallarta to win	48%	2.07	1.68
Double chance	Tritons Vallarta or draw	76%	1.31	1.11
Both teams to score	Both teams to score	54%	1.87	1.85
Draw no bet	Tritons Vallarta (draw no bet)	67%	1.49	–
Asian handicap	Mineros de Fresnillo +1 (Asian handicap)	74%	1.36	–
Over/under 1.5 goals	Over 1.5 goals	71%	1.42	1.33
Over/under 2.5 goals	Under 2.5 goals	53%	1.87	1.77
Over/under 3.5 goals	Under 3.5 goals	74%	1.35	1.28
Over/under 4.5 goals	Under 4.5 goals	89%	1.12	–
First team to score	Tritons Vallarta to score first	51%	1.96	–
Half-time result	Level at half-time	44%	2.27	–
Half-time / full-time	HT Tritons Vallarta / FT Tritons Vallarta	25%	3.95	–
Correct score	Correct score 2–1	9%	11.37	–

Head to head

No previous meetings on record between Tritons Vallarta and Mineros de Fresnillo.

Tritons Vallarta vs Mineros de Fresnillo head-to-head page →

Liga Premier Serie A table

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	FC Santiago	11	7	1	3	+20	24
2	Acatlan	11	7	1	3	+5	23
3	La Tribu de Cd. Juarez	11	7	0	4	+18	22
4	Mineros de Fresnillo	11	6	3	2	+11	22
5	Correcaminos UAT II	11	6	2	3	+4	20
6	Vaqueros Reynosa	11	5	2	4	+1	18
7	Guerreros	10	4	2	4	0	15
8	Atlético Saltillo	10	4	0	6	-7	11
9	Real Apodaca	11	3	1	7	-7	9
10	Héroes de Zaci	10	0	1	9	-26	2
1	Dragones de Oaxaca	11	7	2	2	+16	25
2	Artesanos Metepec	11	7	3	1	+14	25
3	Acambaro	11	7	1	3	+17	23
4	Delfines Coatzacoalcos	11	5	3	3	+4	19
5	Halcones Negros	11	5	1	5	+4	17
6	Guerreros del Pacifico	11	4	1	6	+1	17
7	Calor de San Pedro	11	4	1	6	-7	16
8	Real Refineros	11	5	1	5	-5	15
9	Ciervos	11	2	0	9	-27	5
10	Cañoneros Marina	10	0	0	10	-36	0

More Liga Premier Serie A predictions

League hub

–

Cañoneros Marina2

Pioneros de Cancún2 Pens 4–4 117%3.30X19%3.20264%1.95 0.9–2.4xG X2Pioneros de Cancún or draw 83%@1.28 ✓

Correcaminos UAT II1

Gavilanes FC Matamoros0 134%2.70X24%2.95241%2.55 1.0–1.1xG U3.5Under 3.5 goals 81%@1.20 ✓

–

Leones Negros1

Acatlan0 172%1.27X18%5.50210%7.50 2.7–1.0xG 1Leones Negros to win 72%@1.27

–

Deportivo Zap

Chilpancingo 165%1.38X22%4.33213%6.50 2.1–0.9xG 1Deportivo Zap to win 65%@1.38

–

Deportiva Venados

Inter Playa del Carmen 158%1.80X22%3.50220%3.50 2.0–1.1xG 1XDeportiva Venados or draw 80%@1.22

Colima1

Durango4 117%13.00X20%6.25263%1.17 1.1–1.9xG O2.5Over 2.5 goals 59%@1.50 ✓

–

Cordobés

FC Santiago 124%3.10X25%3.10251%2.25 0.8–1.6xG X2FC Santiago or draw 76%@1.35

Frequently asked questions

What is the prediction for Tritons Vallarta vs Mineros de Fresnillo?

Our pick is Under 3.5 goals with a 74% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.28.

Who will win Tritons Vallarta vs Mineros de Fresnillo?

On our numbers Tritons Vallarta have a 48% chance of winning, the draw 28% and Mineros de Fresnillo 24%.

How many goals will there be in Tritons Vallarta vs Mineros de Fresnillo?

We expect about 2.5 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 47% likely and both teams score 54% of the time on our projection.

What is the predicted score for Tritons Vallarta vs Mineros de Fresnillo?

Our predicted score is Tritons Vallarta 1–1 Mineros de Fresnillo, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.5 goals in total.

When is Tritons Vallarta vs Mineros de Fresnillo?

Tritons Vallarta vs Mineros de Fresnillo (Liga Premier Serie A) kicks off on Saturday 21 February 2026 at 23:00 (West Africa Time) at Canchas Curiel.

Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.

Tritons Vallarta v Mineros de Fresnillo: numbers & prediction